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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props, August 19th: Zach Thompson O/U Strikeout, Jorge Lopez

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: August 19, 2021, 12:17 pm ET

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Zach Thompson O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Reds

This number is not available on most books yet. I will wait to see if I can get a 5.5 line before playing, but at 4.5, I like this out to -130 odds.

I don't know what it is about Miami pitchers that have me gravitating to them lately, but I like it.

Zach Thompson, I'm back.

In his last start, we hit the Over 14.5 outs prop as he went 6.0 strong innings against the Cubs. I could not put anything on his strikeout number as it seemed like a trap at 5.5, and it was. He finished with three.

Heading to Cincy to take on the Reds will be a tougher task and I doubt Thompson lasts 6.0 innings or hits the Over on his strikeout prop.

Thomspon has seven strikeouts in his last three starts compared to seven earned runs and 11 hits in 14.0 innings.

He faced the Cubs (3 Ks), Padres (2 Ks) and Mets (2 Ks) in that span. His ERA is 4.50 in those three games with 11 hits, seven strikeouts, seven earned runs and six walks in 14.0 innings. 

His spin rate has declined each month and his August spin rate RPM of 2248 is the lowest of the season, per baseballsavant.com.

The 2246 RPM total in his previous start against the Cubs was the third-lowest RPM of the year despite reaching 6.0 innings for the second time of his career.

Thompson spin rate

 

NBC's model projects at 5.0 strikeouts in 5.2 innings, but I see those numbers potentially being a strikeout and inning too high.

In his last six starts, Thompson has five or fewer strikeouts in all six and averages 3.0 per game in the last five.

Thomspin projections

 

Away from Miami, Thompson has struggled with a 3.86 ERA, .203 OBA and 18 strikeouts to 15 hits, 11 walks and nine earned runs over 21.0 innings and five starts.

He has only made it past one 4.0 innings in one road game -- back on July 4th,

At night, Thompson's ERA declines to 4.23, his OBA to .233 and 16 K to 12 BB in 27.2 innings and five starts is not appealing either.

He has struggled, and if the Reds put up runs at home, this could get ugly.

Cincy has 42 runs in the past seven games, the third-highest total in the last week. The Reds have struck out 67 times over the last seven games, which is high but their .252 batting average and .830 OPS is worth backing against Thompson.

Five of the last seven starting pitchers stayed Under six strikeouts (71.4%) and four stayed Under five strikeouts (57.1%), per statmuse.

Back Thompson to go shorter innings that his last start but finish somewhere around the same neighborhood in strikeouts, hitting the Under.

Pick: Zach Thompson Under " " Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Jorge Lopez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rays

In Jorge Lopez's last meeting with the Rays, he struck out three in the first inning and four total through the first order of the lineup.

After three innings, Lopez had five Ks. Impressive. 

However, in the next three innings, he did not record a single strikeout. 

Lopez's strikeouts drop the second time through the order as his OPS rises. when he goes a third time through, it's bad.

Lopez owns a .271 OBA the first time through the order and .276 the second time. His strikeout numbers drop 12 strikeouts in seven less at-bats, while his OPS rises from .751 to .888.

The third time through, Lopez has a .408 OBA and 1.079 OPS. I doubt he makes it that far but if he does, the Rays should have a day.

Tampa Bay is hitting .279 in the past six games (8th) with a .888 OPS (3rd) and 41 runs (2nd).

That is bad news versus Lopez, who surrendered 12 hits and seven earned runs in 10.2 innings versus the Rays this year -- a 5.91 ERA.

Yes, Lopez went Over 4.5 strikeouts in both meetings with Tampa, but one was eight strikeouts back on June 12th and the five-K performance two starts ago. 

Lopez barely hit five Ks and only needed 12 total batters faced for that total. It will not be like that this time around and I do not expect Lopez to register more than three Ks the first time through the order. 

Lopez has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts on the season in 16-of-24 games (67%) and 8-of-12 (67%) on the road, per NBC's hit rate chart.

Lopez

 

In the last 10 outings, Lopez has been an Under machine with eight hits. Per baseballsavant.com, Lopez ranks 22nd or worse in K%, whiff % and chase rate, so the Under is always the play with Lopez.

Lopez went past 4.2 innings in one of the past seven road games and 1-of-2 on the season versus Tampa this year.

I like the Rays lineup today and feel like there could be a ton of power resulting in an easy win.

If you are a spread or ML backer, the Rays seem like a good bet today and Lopez Under his strikeout total. 

I would normally only bet Overs versus Tampa, but I doubt Lopez goes 3-of-3 to the Over versus the Rays this season in the heat of an intense AL East race. 

Pick: Jorge Lopez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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