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John Means Under 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves
John Means will face the Atlanta Braves for the first time in his career and it is not coming at the best time.
On the road, opposing LHP have not fared well in Atlanta.
Dating back to the beginning of June until now, the Braves have hosted 12 LHP and 10 went Under 5.5 strikeouts (83.3%), per statmuse. Seven of the 12 went Under 4.5 strikeouts (58.3%).
Means has allowed 40 hits over his last six starts and 25 runs, 21 earned.
In that same span, Means has 25 strikeouts in 31.0 innings pitched. Those numbers are worrisome, especially with a 7.43 ERA in August and 5.09 ERA in July.
Atlanta is hitting .259 (T-9th) over the last seven days and six games. The Braves are also top 10 in hits, runs, OBP, SLG and OPS and second in walks during that span with 33 (5.5 per game).
Atlanta has struck out 49 times in the last seven days (8.1 per game), ranking T-10th best.
Means has only recorded six strikeouts in two of his six starts since coming back from his injury in July.
He has gone Under 5.5 Ks in seven of the past 10 (70%) and 11-of-18 (61%) on the season, per NBC's hit rate chart.
I will back him to go Under six strikeouts and drink the juice on a Sunday.
This trend has been strong and I will keep playing it until their is a dominant LHP worth backing the Over or leaving alone versus Atlanta.
Pick: John Means Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Chris Archer O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox
Chris Archer is making his much-anticipated return to the Rays today to face the White Sox at home.
The first pitch will be 91 degrees with a feel of 104, plus 61% humidity, so welcome back!
The White Sox are hitting .276 over the last week and seven days (5th), while ranking second in hits (68) and T-9th in runs (35). Chicago is averaging 3.0 walks per game and 8.4 strikeouts per game in that span.
Chicago held six of the last nine starting pitchers (66.7%) and six of the past 10 (60%) to stay Under 5.5 strikeouts, per statmuse. For RHP, four of the last six went Under 5.5 Ks (66.7%) and six of the previous 10 (60%).
Archer may not and probably should not go more than 5.0 innings today.
Tampa Bay should be careful with how they approach pitching him, especially since they are running away with the AL East.
A healthy Archer could be a nice relief pitcher in the postseason if he can get his command down, but I am not sure the White Sox are the best team to start with.
In his only appearances this season, Archer lasted 2.0 and 2.1 innings, back on April 3rd and 10th. He recorded two and four strikeouts on 42 and 52 pitches.
If his pitch count gets to 50-plus around the second or third inning, Archer likely won't see 5.0-plus innings pitched and that gives us a better chance at hitting the Under on this prop.
Pick: Chris Archer Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Touki Toussaint O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Orioles
Since Kolby Allard and the Rangers-Red Sox game was postponed, here is my add for the day.
We ride with Touki Toussaint for a second straight game after recording seven strikeouts versus Miami.
Toussaint has cashed the Over 4.5 strikeouts in five of six games and recorded a season-high 10 Ks in his only day start versus Philadelphia. I would play this at a half-unit past -150 or at 5.5 for +100 or better.
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