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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props, August 23rd: Jordan Montgomery, Kolby Allard O/U Ks

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: August 23, 2021, 9:47 am ET

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Jordan Montgomery Under 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves

Yankees at Braves -- this is going to be a fun game. 

It might be the best game of the day, honestly.

We could see two electric offenses with two pitchers who balance between being average and above average at times.

However, Jordan Montgomery is my target here because he fits a trend that I have continually played and cashed on. 

Fading LHP strikeout prop's versus Atlanta.

Since June 15, every single starting LHP has recorded five or fewer strikeouts versus the Braves -- 18 straight, per statmuse. Take a look, it's kind of crazy.

LHP vs ATL

 

Three of those 18 starting LHP hit five strikeouts (16.6%), so even getting to that point is tough.

Lately, the Braves faced four LHP last week and they combined for 13 earned runs and 12 strikeouts.

The Braves are hitting .252 (11th) over the last week and six games, ranking top 10 in OBP, OPS and SLG, hits, RBIs, HRs and runs scored.

Atlanta ranks first in walks with 32 in the past six games and 13th in strikeouts with 51 in the same span.

Since mid-June, Montgomery has had walk issues. He's warranted at least one in 10 consecutive starts, two or more in eight of those 10 games and three-plus walks in three games.

On the road, Montgomery walks more and strikeouts his opponents less. He has also hit the Under 5.5 strikeouts eight out of 12 times (66.7%) and averages 5.3 Ks per game away from Yankee Stadium, per NBC's hit rate chart.

Montgomery HIT RATE

 

His OBA is the worst of all splits at .252 ERA away from home and his ERA is the second-worst at 4.14.

Montgomery averages one strikeout per inning on the road but has yet to last 6.0 innings in four straight overall starts.

Only three of the 11 starting LHP in August have pitched 6.0 innings against Atlanta and two of them finished with five Ks, so expect a sweat if Montgomery does reach 6.0 innings.

Montgomery did hook me finishing with six strikeouts against Boston, sitting down Bobby Dalbec on the second-to-last at-bat. Well, this time around, I like my chances against a faithful and patient Braves squad at home.

I will have to see the lineup before making this a 1.5u play, but this could be that by first pitch at 7:20 PM ET.

Pick: Jordan Montgomery Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Kolby Allard Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox

This game was postponed to due Hurricane Henry and incoming weather yesterday.

Today, the game is on with a chance of rain between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. This game could be delayed at some point but chances are, this matchup will get played.

Texas' Kolby Allard has allowed two or more earned runs in 11 straight games and seven overall in the past three. In August, Allard has a 3.44 ERA, .268 OBA and nine strikeouts in 18.2 innings pitched.

That is a 0.49 strikeout per inning average, which is one of the worst in the league. 

In July, Allard's K/inning average was much better at 0.90, but his ERA was an abysmal 9.13 ERA with a .291 OBA and 24 earned runs over 23.2 innings and five starts.

NBC's model projects Allard to last 6.0 innings and record 4.4 strikeouts, hitting the Over. I am not confident Allard reaches 6.0 innings at Fenway.

Lately, Allard has gone Over 3.5 Ks in five of the past six road games but two came against the Mariners and the Angels In another, two high-K squads.

On the season, he is 7-6 (53.8%) to the Over as a starter and hit the Under in six of his last 10 (60%) and five of the previous seven.

Allard hit rate

 

Allard has only faced Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Christian Vazquez twice each for eight combined plate appearances. The group has three hits, two RBIs and one home run for a .375 BA and 1.125 OPS.

In his short career, Allard has met Boston once and lasted 3.0 innings over 80 pitches recording one strikeout, six hits and five earned runs allowed.

When a starting LHP makes the trip to Fenway, five of the last eight have gone Under 3.5 strikeouts, dating back to July 1st, per statmuse.

Allard is not a strikeout guy and ranks in the 26th percentile for K%, 17th percentile in chase rate and 6th percentile for whiff%.

Back him to go Under his strikeout total versus the Red Sox and hope he doesn't ruin lunch for us.

Pick: Kolby Allard Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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