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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props, August 26th: Keegan Akin, Brad Keller, Jameson Taillon Ks

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: August 26, 2021, 9:57 am ET

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Keegan Akin O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Angels

The Orioles did it! They won! Now throw Keegan Akin on the mound to make it two straight wins, right?

Nope. If you followed me, you know this is my guy. I did not think we would get the 4.5 number here, but Akin is a must-bet every time we do.

I know the Angels have struck out a lot, but there is a catch.

In the last 14 days and 14 games, Los Angeles has 134 strikeouts (9.5 Ks per game), tied for second-most behind the Chicago Cubs (149).

However, the Angels are tied for ninth with 49 strikeouts (8.1 Ks per game) over the last six games and seven days. 

The Angels are dropping that strikeout percentage and Ks per game in the last week.

Los Angeles is hitting .259 in the past six games (8th), tied with the sixth-most walks in that span (21), not to mention the fourth-most runs scored (35) with 5.83 runs per game.

According to NBC's model, Akin has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in five of the last six starts, six of the previous eight since July and seven of the past 10.

He is projected for 4.5 strikeouts and 5.1 innings today, but I doubt he makes it that far into the start. Akin has only gone 5.0 or more innings in three out of 18 appearances this year (16.6%).

PointsBet shows his 3.5 strikeout prop, but to the 4.5 number, Akin is 14-of-18 to the Under (77.8%).

Akin 3.5

 

Akin has also averaged 2.2 strikeouts in the last five starts for 11 strikeouts in 15.1 innings pitched. He owns a 7.04 ERA in those five starts, all in August and .318 OBA. 

Akin made it 5.0 innings for the first time in 10 starts last game versus Atlanta and recorded three strikeouts on 101 pitches. 

That was Akin's first 100-pitch game of the season, so how he bounces back will be interesting. Akin had five days off and will start the day after Baltimore's first win in three weeks -- not ideal. 

The last 10 LHP to face the Angels have gone Under 4.5 strikeouts five times (50%), and 10 of the previous 17 hit the Under 4.5 Ks (58.8%), per statmuse.

This should be a close call, but I believe Akin will get rocked today and won't last past 4.0 innings versus the Angels. I would play the 4.5 strikeouts but pass on the 3.5 total.

Pick: Keegan Akin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Brad Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have struck out 68 times over the last six games (third-most), and now they get Brad Keller, who has 16 strikeouts in his past two starts.

The Royals' hottest pitcher has hit the Over on this prop three times, and NBC's model projects Keller to record 5.9 strikeouts in 6.1 innings pitched, cashing the Over. 

KC SEA

 

Keller has totaled five or more strikeouts in six of his past eight starts (75%), including four of the last five on the road (80%).

Keller game log

 

On the season, Keller has hit Over 4.5 strikeouts in 13 of 25 starts (52%) and 7-of-14 on the road (50%), however, Keller's road numbers are getting better. 

He has also lasted 5.0 or more innings in nine of the past 10 (90%) and 18 of the last 20 (90%).

Looking over what the Mariners have done versus RHP, Keller has a good chance to it the Over.

Per statmuse, Seattle has allowed the last six of the last 10 (60%) RHP and six of eight (75%) to hit five or more strikeouts. Five of the last six (83.3%) and seven of the previous 10 (70%) starting RHP went 5.0 innings or more.

The last six RHP that went 5.0 innings all hit the Over versus Seattle.

RHP vs SEA

 

Of the last 10 RHP that started IN Seattle -- went Over 4.5 strikeouts in seven games (70%). 

There are a lot of favorable percentages in Keller's favor to keep the good times rolling against the Mariners. Seattle is hitting .237 and ranking 17th to 19th in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS over the past week.

Keller should go past 5.0 innings and build off his 1.05 strikeouts per inning average that he has owned since July.

Pick: Brad Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

Jameson Taillon O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Athletics

 

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Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and former contributor for numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.