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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props August 27th: Gerrit Cole, Zach Thompson O/U Ks

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: August 27, 2021, 9:27 am ET

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Gerrit Cole O/U 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Athletics

As someone who has a future AL CY Young bet on Lance Lynn, it pains me to say this, but Gerrit Cole looks like he is back and not playing around.

The Yankees are hot....which is an understatement. New York has won 12 straight games and now have Cole on the mound.

Since returning from COVID, Cole is 2-0 with 11.2 innings pitched and 15 strikeouts to one earned run versus the Angels and Twins. I hit on the Under 9.5 Ks versus the Angels, he had nine in 5.2 innings (sweaty).

We look to the Over today. He went Under his previous start versus Minnesota, recording six strikeouts in 5.0 innings (97 pitches).

While the Oakland A's are not a high strikeout team lately, more middle of the pack, there is plenty of potential for Cole Over 7.5 strikeouts to cash.

NBC's model projects Cole to hit 8.4 strikeouts in 7.0 innings pitched. On the road (pictured below), Cole recorded eight or more strikeouts in seven out of 11 starts (64%), including three straight.

Gerrit Cole road

 

Oakland is hitting .217 (23rd) over the last six games with 20 earned runs (T-24th). Versus eight Oakland hitters, Cole has a .144 OBA, .187 OBP and 44 strikeouts to eight walks in 117 plate appearances.

Against Cole, Matt Chapman has struck out nine times in 19 tries, Elvis Andrus seven in 25 attempts, Mitch Moreland seven in 17 plate appearances and he sat down Matt Olson 12 of 20 times. 

Those four alone could account for at least four strikeouts.

It would be nice to get Jed Lowrie (.071 in L14 PA), Seth Brown (5 Ks in L8 PA) or Sean Murphy (6 Ks in L15 PA) in the lineup today as all three would likely be a strikeout with how they have performed in the past seven days.

Back Cole to get eight or more strikeouts against Oakland for +100 or better. I would play this out to -130 for one unit -- only 1.5 unit for +100 money.

Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 7.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

 

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Zach Thompson O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Reds

Round 2. Zach Thomspon will get his second straight start against the Reds, this time, the location switches to Miami. 

Thomspon has faced a few teams twice this season and the results have not been beneficial enough to consider the Over here. 

He finished the first meeting with the Reds making it 5.0 innings on 73 pitches. Thompson struck out three and allowed two earned runs and three hits.

Thompson played the Braves, Cubs and Padres twice this season. 

In the first game versus the Cubs, he recorded seven strikeouts in 4.0 innings (73 pitches) with one walk and one run.

Versus Chicago a second time, Thompson went 6.0 innings (72 pitches) and struck out three with four hits and one earned run.

Against the Braves, Thomspon had six strikeouts in 5.0 innings (66 pitches) with four hits and no earned runs.

In the second start, he went 6.0 innings (87 pitches) going Over 4.5 Ks with six strikeouts to one walk, but allowed five hits and three earned runs.

Finally, versus the Padres, Thomspon had three Ks and one walk in 5.0 innings (85 pitches). He allowed six hits and four earned runs.

Over the second meeting, San Diego earned four hits and four earned runs again, seeing Thomspon exit at four strikeouts in 4.0 innings (75 pitches).

Thompson went Under 4.5 Ks in two of the three starts against a team for the second time. The only Over was against Atlanta, who strikes out a ton to RHP in general.

Thompson totaled 19 strikeouts in the first meetings with the Reds, Braves, Cubs and Padres, going Over 4.5 Ks twice. 

He had 11 Ks through three games (excluding Reds) in the second meeting, going Over once. The Braves were Over culprits twice, plus the first game with the Cubs. There are no surprises there and with Unders against the Padres twice, Cubs once and Reds once.

NBC's model predicts Thompson to record five strikeouts in 5.2 innings against the Reds. Thompson has gone 3-1 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts in his last four home starts.

Overall, Thompson is 6-1 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts in the past seven starts (85.7%).

Zach Thompson

 

Five of the last 10 RHP went Under 4.5 strikeouts against the Reds and five of the last 10 RHP at home versus Cincinnati went Under 4.5 Ks, per statmuse

While this can be a 50-50 bet to some, the Reds just faced Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Sandy Alcantara in three of the past four games. 

Zach Thompson will be a welcoming face to the Reds' hitters after seeing those three starting pitchers. 

The Reds held Brett Anderson to three Ks and three earned runs through 4.0 innings yesterday. I can Thompson going 5.0 innings, then Miami calling it a night as three of their bullpen pitchers threw eight or fewer pitches last night.

Pick: Zach Thompson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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