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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props, August 31st: Matt Moore, Keegan Akin, Jordan Lyles O/U Ks

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: August 31, 2021, 11:03 am ET

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Matt Moore O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Nationals

Matt Moore will make his sixth road start of the season when he takes on the Washington Nationals.

Moore saw the Nats twice this season, once in a start and once in a relief appearance. Moore won the relief appearance, while he lost the one start, both lasting 4.0 innings exactly with three strikeouts.

Washington has 61 Ks in its past seven games, which is a lot, but looking over what they have done versus LHP -- I like what I see.

The Nationals held four of the last five LHP Under 4.5 strikeouts in 18 of the last 21 games (85.7%), per statmuse.

Below, you can see 12 of the past 15 LHP went Under 4.5 strikeouts (80%) and 11 Under 3.5 Ks (73.3%).

LHP vs WSH since ASG

 

Moore is 4-1 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts on the season as the road starter (80%). He has 10 appearances on the road this year but nine where he faced more than one batter.

Moore averages 2.3 strikeouts per game in those nine road appearances per NBC's player prop model. He also owns a 4.06 ERA with a .252 OBA away from the City of Brotherly Love.

Matt Moore hit rate on road

 

Moore's numbers drop to a 6.80 ERA and .305 OBA at night, both the worst of all his splits. In August, Moore has a 5.30 ERA, and 17 strikeouts in 18.2 innings pitched. 

He has failed to go beyond 5.0 innings on the road this season, and that is a tough selling point for the Over when Moore averages fewer than one strikeout per inning.

The Nationals have 11 hitters and pitchers who have faced Moore a combined 58 times. They have struck out 12 times to Moore but own 13 RBIs on 17 hits and six homers. 

That group has a .278 BA and .951 OPS against Moore, so I am looking for that to carry over. 

Moore has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in four of his past five starts (80%) entering this contest. Plus, if we discount that six-pitch start where he exited early, nine of his 11 starts on the season have gone Under 4.5 Ks (81.8%).

However, only five of those 11 starts went Under 3.5 Ks (45.4%), so beware.

Back Moore to hit four or fewer strikeouts against Washington's offense. I would play Moore at Under 3.5 for a much lower wager, 0.5u or less despite the Nets keeping plenty of LHP Under four Ks.

Pick: Matt Moore Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Keegan Akin O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays

Keegan Akin looked great in his last start earning his first win of the season versus the Angels. Kudos to him. Now back to scheduled programming.

Akin is on the road, which has been a profitable fade. As a starter, Akin is 6-1 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts (85.7%) and 5-2 to the Under 3.5 strikeouts (71.4%).

Akin averages 2.6 strikeouts per game in his 11 road appearances, per NBC's player prop model. His OBA is a ridiculous .340, plus an 8.25 ERA on the road, which is appealing as he faces the Blue Jays for a second time.

Akin road hit rate

 

Akin recorded three strikeouts in 4.1 innings against the Blue Jays back in late June. Akin allowed seven hits and six earned runs on 82 pitches. He was on the road for that meeting.

Eight Toronto hitters have a combined .300 BA, .746 SLG and 1.058 OPS versus Akin in 35 at-bats. Akin has nine strikeouts to that crew with a small sample size of six at-bats or fewer to each batter.

Seven of the last 12 LHP to face Toronto have gone Under 4.5 strikeouts (58.3%) and five of the past 10 (50%) since the All-Star break (pictured below), per statmuse.

LHP vs TOR since ASG

 

I have witnessed enough of Akin this season and rode the Under plenty to take another shot here. 

Even off his best performance against a strikeout-heavy Angels squad, I see five strikeouts being one to two Ks too high for Akin, who will likely last 5.0 innings or fewer.

I will back one unit at the Under 4.5 strikeouts on Akin. I grabbed it at -148 after opening at -140.

For the 3.5 number, I would play 0.5u to 0.75u on this one as he has a successful hit rate to the 3.5 on the road too.

Pick: Keegan Akin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

Jordan Lyles O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies

 

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Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and former contributor for numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.