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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props for June 14: Brad Keller, Vladimir Gutierrez, Alek Manoah

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: June 14, 2021, 7:42 pm ET

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Brad Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Tigers

In the first meeting with Detroit, Brad Keller recorded four strikeouts in 6.0 innings on 103 pitches, earning the win. 

That was Keller's fifth start of the season, but up until that point, Keller allowed 16 earned runs in four games and only nine strikeouts.

Leading up to the second meeting, Keller has been on his stuff and had his game going. Keller recorded 22 strikeouts in the last four games in 22.1 innings and 11 earned runs. 

Keller averages 0.90 strikeouts per inning on the season, but facing the Tigers can raise that. Detroit is last in the league with a 27.1% strikeout rate to right-handed pitchers. 

The Royals' 6-foot-5 pitchers has tossed five or more strikeouts over the previous three seasons versus Detroit in four straight games before his four-piece this season.

NBC's model projects Keller to record 5.2 strikeouts in 6.1 innings. Over the last seven outings, Keller has gone 5.0 innings or longer.

When he has gone 5.0 or more innings, Keller is 6-3 (66.6%) to the Over 4.5 strikeouts. When Keller has gone 6.0 innings or longer this season, the Royals' pitcher is 2-1 (66.6%) to the Over 4.5 strikeouts, going Under versus Detroit.

MLB K Props

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With Detroit's lineup, there are a couple of spots I favor Keller. Matched up with Akil Baddoo (2 Ks in 3 AB vs. Keller), Niko Goodrum (.118 vs. Keller), Eric Haase (22 Ks in 50 AB vs. RHP) and Miguel Cabrera (.198 vs. RHP). 

Over the last seven, only one team has struck out more than Detroit, and in the previous 15 days, only four. Detroit is hitting a .211 average over the past six games (22nd), with roughly 10 strikeouts per contest. 

Keller has recorded at least four strikeouts in eight of the past nine games and five or more in five. Back him here against the Tigers.

Pick: Brad Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

Vladimir Gutierrez Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are right there with the Detroit Tigers, hitting .222 over the past 15 days and .226 in the previous six games. 

Milwaukee ranks fifth in the league with a 25.8% strikeout percentage and the fifth-worst wRC+ (83) on the season. The Brewers met Vladimir Gutierrez once this season, coming in his last start.

Gutierrez struck out seven Brewers hitters after posting three in each of his first two starts. Gutierrez upped his pitch count from 67 (Cubs) to 77 (Cardinals), then 102 against the Brewers. 

Both of Gutierrez's first two starts lasted 5.0 innings and he walked five combined hitters. In the previous start versus Milwaukee, Gutierrez went 7.0 innings for seven strikeouts and permitted six hits, three walks and two earned runs. 

NBC's model predicts Gutierrez to record 6.0 strikeouts in 6.2 innings, projected to go Over his 4.5 strikeout prop. 

CIN-MIL

In the two earlier series versus the Brewers, six games in total, the Reds' six starting pitchers have recorded five or more strikeouts in all of them.

Sonny Gray had five and eight Ks, Luis Castillo recorded five and seven, while Jeff Hoffman totaled seven. Gutierrez posted seven strikeouts himself. Again, all came against the Brewers.

Cincinnati is 4-2 this season against Milwaukee, and the Reds have won the last two games with Gutierrez on the mound. 

The Brewers are tied-5th for the most strikeouts over the past week (58). However, Milwaukee does lead the league with 33 walks over the last six games, which is a little concerning against Gutierrez.

He walked eight hitters in his first three starts compared to 13 strikeouts in 17.0 innings. Two of the three walks against the Brewers were against Christian Yelich, so limiting him will be a priority. 

I love Gutierrez against the five through nine hitters for Milwaukee. If he can go through the lineup twice and strike out one or two hitters in the one through four spots, this should be a favorable number for us.

Gutierrez has limited experience against the Brewers but based on the last meeting, and it being another NL matchup, meaning he pitches to Eric Lauer, gives us more strikeout opportunities. 

Pick: Vladimir Gutierrez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

Alek Manoah Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox 

Alek Manoah gets his fourth start of the season as the Blue Jays are visiting the Red Sox. In his first three starts of his rookie season, Manoah has recorded seven, five and four strikeouts for 16 total Ks in 14.1 innings. 

Although his strikeout totals have dropped each outing, Manoah has been adjusting to the pro game. He struggled to get that third strikeout in his last two starts a few times when he is up in the pitch count. 

Luckily for Manoah, The Red Sox have struck out the third-most strikeouts in the past week at 58 over the last six games and 131 in the previous 14 outings.

Boston is hitting .226 in the last 14 games and .218 in the past six contests. On the season, the Red Sox rank 29th in walk rate at 7.2%, which is a promising sign versus a young pitcher like Manoah.

Manoah is projected to record 6.4 strikeouts in 6.0 innings with 2.8 walks versus Boston by NBC's model. If Manoah can keep this two walks or fewer, I like the chances he strikes out five or more.

TOR-BOS

There is not much to go off Manoah after three games, but I like him here based on the Red Sox's bats the last 15 days.

Bobby Dalbec is hitting .158 with 16 Ks in the last 11 games and Marwin Gonzalez is at .143 with nine Ks and two walks in that same span. 

Christian Arroyo has 13 strikeouts to two walks in the past 12 games. Christian Vazquez is hitting .308 but struck out eight times to one walk in his last 39 at-bats. 

J.D. Martinez is hitting .209 with 14 Ks in the last 11 outings, while Enrique Hernandez is batting .178 with 16 Ks and three walks in the previous 12 games.

With all that going on lately and the Red Sox being 2-4 in the past six games after five straight wins -- I think Manoah is getting Boston at a good time.

Pick: Alex Manoah Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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