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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props, October 1st: Gonzalez, Kershaw, Alcantara O/U Strikeouts

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: October 1, 2021, 1:45 pm ET

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Marco Gonzalez 3+ Strikeouts and Seattle Win

Same Game Parlay time.

Marco Gonzalez takes the mound against the Angels for the second straight start and there are plenty of implications.

As of October 1st, the Seattle Mariners are tied with the Boston Red Sox for the final wildcard spot and two games back of the New York Yankees.

The Mariners need to win here and they have eight of the last nine times he has taken the mound!

Gonzalez faced the Angels twice this season and recorded three strikeouts and five Ks in his previous start. Gonzalez owns a 2.84 ERA, 1-0 record and .213 OBA in those two starts with eight Ks over 12.1 innings.

On the year, Gonzalez has hit three or more strikeouts in 20 of 24 starts (83.3%). NBC's model projects the 29-year-old LHP to record 5.4 strikeouts, hitting the Over 4.5 prop line set for him. 

The Mariners have won seven of the last 10 meetings against the Angels and 10 out of 16 on the season (62.5%), per NBC's Edge Finder

SEA vs LAA

 

The Angels are out of playoff contention and eight of the last 10 LHP totaled three or more strikeouts versus L.A.

With successful hit rates to the three strikeouts, the Mariners owning the season series, and this being a must-win -- let's do a Same Game Parlay.

Pick: Marco Gonzalez 3+ Strikeouts and Seattle Win (1u)

 

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Clayton Kershaw Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Brewers

Let me start by saying J.A. Happ had seven strikeouts against Milwaukee yesterday. What in the world?

Before that, Rich Hill had six Ks versus the Brewers, giving me the idea that Clayton Kershaw, another LHP, should hit 6-7-plus strikeouts.

Milwaukee is locked in a postseason berth and does not need to win the next few games versus the Dodgers. With that being said, the Dodgers need to win.

As I stated in our last few wins with Alex Wood and fading Madison Bumgarner, the Dodgers are chasing the Giants. 

Kershaw will bring intensity at home in a packed stadium and I think he can and will feed off the crowd. Kershaw is projected to record 7.1 strikeouts in 6.1 innings by the NBC player prop model, hitting the Over.

At home, Kershaw is 7-2 to the Over 6.5 strikeouts at 5.0-plus innings. He had at least 6 Ks in all nine starts.

Kershaw

 

Kershaw has hit seven strikeouts in 12 out of 21 starts this season (57.1%) and 12 of 17 at 5.0 or more innings (70.5%). 

He should see 5.0-plus innings here and when he hits 6.0 innings, he is 10-4 to the Over 6.5 Ks (71.4%) with at least six strikeouts in every start.

Back Kershaw to bring that playoff intensity in October versus a Brewers team that could coast the final weekend of the regular-season.

Pick: Clayton Kershaw Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

 

Sandy Alcantara O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Phillies

Last night the Phillies were eliminated from the playoffs, so bring on the scrubs!

Sandy Alcantara is projected to hit 7.1 strikeouts by our model and he has hit the Over 5.5 strikeouts prop in nine of his last 11 starts for the Marlins. 

Over the last 10 games, Alcantara averages 7.5 strikeouts per game, and in the last 10 starts, he went 5.0-plus innings -- that average rises to 8.4 Ks, per NBC's player prop model. 

The model projects 7.1 strikeouts, so that is where the projected line is for hit rates as PointsBet does not have a line out for him as of publishing.

Sandy hit

 

Against a Phillies lineup that should not feature much star power or effort on the road seems like a prime spot to back Alcantara.

Don't overthink this too much. Alcantara has pitched 5.0 innings in 28 of 32 starts (87.5%) and 6.0 innings in 26 of 32 (81.2%). 

He should go the distance to hit this prop as he has averaged more strikeouts than innings pitched for the last two months. His home ERA on the season is 2.17, so expect him to send off the crowd right in his final start.

Pick: Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

 

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