Loading scores...
Odds and Ends

MLB K Props, October 21st: Braves vs Dodgers

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: October 21, 2021, 5:56 pm ET

The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. 

 

Max Fried O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Dodgers

Max Fried takes the mound for the second time versus the Dodgers and this time to close out this series.

With a familiar chance to advance, the Braves will likely be cautious with Fried. Last season, the Dodgers won three straight games to beat the Braves and go to the World Series.

We face the same situation and Fried will be tasked with the road start in Game 5 of the NLCS.

NBC's model projects Fried to go 3.0 innings and I do not see him going past 5.0 innings. Fried went 6.0 innings and recorded five strikeouts on 81 pitches and zero walks versus the Dodgers. He allowed eight hits and two earned runs.

ATL ALD

Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don't forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!

 

Fried averages 5.6 strikeouts in games of 5.0 innings or fewer and 4.3 at 4.2 innings or less. The Dodgers will be after Fried and look to score runs after getting eight hits off him, but only two earned runs (one home run).

Despite being an excellent pitcher, Fried does not have the best strikeout, whiff and chase rate percentiles per baseballsavant.com. He ranks in the 51st, 36th and 40th percentiles. 

He also throws the fastball and sinker 50% of the time and you can expect L.A. to key on the fastball.

Fried

 

The Braves could opt to save Fried for a Game 7 with Charlie Morton likely on deck with short rest for Game 6, if needed. It's hard to see what they will do with a limited rotation, but Fried will have his toughest challenge of the season today.

With this being an NL game, Fried could be pulled for a pinch-hitter with this being a closeout game -- providing value to the Under on his strikeouts.

I played the Under 4.5 Ks at -125 and would play it to -150.

Pick: Max Fried Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.