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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props, September 13th: Clayton Kershaw, John Gant, Logan Gilbert

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: September 13, 2021, 3:22 pm ET

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John Gant O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Yankees

John Gant will be making his fifth straight start, and he will take on the tough lineup of the Yankees. 

Gant cashed the Over 3.5 Ks in three of the past four starts and on the season, he has been successful to this 3.5 number.

In 18 games as a starter, Gant is 12-6 (66.7%) to the Over and 10-5 (66.7%) when he pitches 4.0 or more innings, per NBC's player prop model.

The model projects 3.7 strikeouts in 4.1 innings, but I expect 5.0 innings here.

John Gant hit rate

 

When Gant goes 5.0 innings or more, he hit the Over 3.5 strikeouts in 8 of 11 games (73%). 

The Yankees have struck out 76 times in the last seven games and 63 in the past six. Both, as you can imagine, top three worst in the MLB.

RHP against the Yankees have recorded four or more strikeouts in 11 of the past 15 games (73.3%), per statmuse. They have also hit the Over 3.5 Ks in five straight. 

RHP vs NYY L15

 

The Yankees also played late last night, so there could be a carryover with sleepy actions/bats. That is the hope, at least.

Back Gant to hit four strikeouts against the K-heavy Yankees.

Pick: John Gant Over 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Clayton Kershaw O/U Strikeouts 4.5 vs. Diamondbacks

Clayton Kershaw makes his long-awaited return after last pitching on July 3rd.

As he takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, he will be capped to 4.0 innings of work as they get him back into October shape. While that would bode well for an Under on most pitchers, you have to at least consider the Over with Kershaw.

Even in 4.0 innings of work, I like the chance Kershaw hits five strikeouts, and some books have him at O/U 5.5 Ks, so they do not know what to expect.

Nine of the last 15 LHP (60%) against Arizona have gone Over 4.5 strikeouts, and only four went Under 5.0 innings, per statmuse.

Those four were Matt Moore, Ranger Suarez, Ryan Weathers and Alex Wood. The only pitcher in that group that is comparable to any degree is Wood and he is the only pitcher to go Over 4.5 Ks with five in 4.0 innings.

LHP vs DBacks L15

 

Looking over Kershaw's career versus Arizona, he normally crushes this number as you would expect.

Kershaw has gone 5.0 innings or Under in only three of his last 25 starts against the DBacks. He recorded three, six and nine strikeouts in those contests.

Yusei Kikuchi had eight strikeouts in 5.0 innings yesterday against Arizona, so there is a chance Kershaw can hit five or six strikeouts in 4.0 innings.

Kershaw will have the home crowd behind him and motivation for the NL West, as he repeatedly stated about building up more innings. A strong start here is important for Kershaw moving forward. 

At home, Kershaw averages 1.32 strikeouts per inning, a 5.3 average over 4.0 innings. He has 77 strikeouts to nine walks at home.

In his only meeting with Arizona this season, Kershaw recorded eight strikeouts to one walk in 6.0 innings and held the DBacks to a .100 batting average.

He has a 22.2% strikeout percentage to Josh Rojas, 31.6% to Christian Walker and 25.7% to Nick Ahmed.

The Dodgers' legend has also struck out guys like Pavin Smith, David Peralta, Daulton Varsho and Andrew Young, who do not have much experience versus Kershaw.

I expect a dominant and hyped homecoming for Kershaw and even in limited innings, I will back the Over 4.5 Ks. 

Get ready to sweat. I will play a 0.5u until I see the lineup of the DBacks.

I will update on Twitter whether or not I go full unit.

Pick: Clayton Kershaw Over 4.5 Strikeouts (0.5u)

 

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Logan Gilbert O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox

Logan Gilbert is no longer a 4.5 strikeout pitcher but now a 5.5!

Gilbert has quietly put up solid strikeout numbers and coming off four or five strikeouts in his past four games versus the Royals once and Astros three times. Yikes and tiring. Those teams are TOUGH to strike out.

The Red Sox can be tough too, but lately, RHP has gotten at least five strikeouts in eight of the last 10 (80%), per statmuse

RP vs BOS L10

 

Only four went Over 5.5 strikeouts, but when you take the seven pitchers who went 5.0 or more innings, four of them hit six-plus Ks.

Gilbert will be facing Boston for the first time in his career, so the Red Sox will not know what to expect from the 24-year-old.

NBC's model projects 5.9 strikeouts in 6.0 innings. 

When he lasts 5.0 innings pitched, which seven of the last 10 RHP (70%) have done versus the Red Sox, Gilbert hits six or more Ks in eight out of 11 starts (73%). 

Logan Gilbert hit rate

 

The Red Sox have 51 strikeouts in the last five games and an OPS of .604 (20th) in that span. 

I am expecting guys like Kyle Schwarber, Bobby Dalbec, Travis Shaw and Hunter Renfroe to be in the lineup and if they are, strikeouts can come in bunches from that group.

Rafael Devers and Enrique Hernandez each have seven strikeouts in the last 19 and 22 ABs, so they are key players to sit down in this contest.

Back Gilbert to hit six strikeouts against Boston as Houston may have kept this kid a secret from us.

Do not forget, this a 10:10 PM ET game, which also favors Seattle over Boston.

Pick: Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox

 

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