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Drew Rasmussen O/U 4.5 STRIKEOUTS VS. BLUE JAYS
I have not played enough Unders lately, but this one should make up for that.
Drew Rasmussen takes on the Blue Jays, something nobody in baseball wants to do. Toronto is hitting .337 with 53 strikeouts to 42 walks -- an insane stretch at the plate.
The Blue Jays are not letting many pitchers escape their grasp, and lately, RHP has struggled to achieve five strikeouts against Toronto.
Out of the last 10 RHP, eight of them went Under 4.5 strikeouts (80%), per statmuse.
Stretching back 15 games, 11 of them still went Under 4.5 Ks (73.3%).
NBC's model projects Rasmussen to hit 3.8 strikeouts in 4.2 innings pitched, hitting the Under. I think his prop line should be more of 3.5 than 4.5 with Toronto's loaded offense.
In the past five games, Rasmussen went Under 4.5 strikeouts four times (80%) and six of seven starts on the season (85.7%).
Rasmussen averages 3.0 strikeouts per game in the past five and 2.5 in the previous 10 (6 starts, 4 relief), per NBC's player prop model.
Rasmussen has met Toronto once this season and went through 2.0 innings recording with two strikeouts and no hits allowed. Today that will change.
He averages 0.96 strikeouts per inning on the road this season. Going five innings against the Blue Jays will be challenging.
Rasmussen has lasted 5.0 innings pitched in two starts or appearances all season and recorded three combined strikeouts against Boston and Philadelphia.
Only two of the last 10 RHP went 5.0 or more innings versus Toronto. If he does not make it 5.0 innings, I do not think he can make it to five strikeouts. Back the Under as our biggest play today.
Pick: Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
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Touki Toussaint O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies
You will have to shop around for this line, but if you have it, grab it.
Touki Toussaint only threw 29 strikes out of 62 pitches in his last start (46.7%).
Prior to that, he faced the Rockies at Coors Field and could not handle the altitude. As a result, he was shelled in a 3.0 inning and 46-pitch performance.
Toussaint totaled zero strikeouts and will face that same Rockies team, just this time at home.
While the Rockies road and home splits are a concern, six strikeouts is a lot for Toussaint. The 25-year-old RHP has only topped six or more strikeouts in two of nine starts this season.
NBC's model projects 4.8 strikeouts in 5.1 innings pitched, hitting the Under. Toussaint has three total strikeouts in his last two starts and eight in his last 12.1 innings pitched.
The graph shows at 4.8 projection line so the five strikeout games are in green, but at 5.5, all but two of those would be red.
At home, Toussaint sports a 5.21 ERA with 18 strikeouts and 12 walks in 19.0 innings pitched. He has failed to hit six or more strikeouts in all four home starts against the Nationals, Reds, Brewers and Padres.
Colorado is hitting .278 in the last five games (8th) with a .817 OPS (6th). The Rockies have 49 strikeouts to 14 walks in that stretch but 25 runs.
Back Toussaint to go Under six strikeouts and play the Under 4.5 strikeouts at a half unit for +120 or better.
Toussaint has not shown the ability to throw strikes lately and if the Rockies get a hold of a few early, we could be seeing another 5.0-inning or earlier exit.
Pick: Touki Toussaint Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Marcus Stroman O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals
This is another play to shop around for as there are 4.5s and 5.5s out there.
NBC's model projects Stroman to hit 6.0 strikeouts in 6.1 innings pitched, hitting the Over, but I am ok going against the grain on this one.
At Citi Field, Stroman has hit five or fewer strikeouts in 11-of-14 starts (78.5%) and Under in 9-of-12 (75%) when he pitches between 3.0 and 7.0 innings pitched (shown below).
The graph below shows the 4.5 line as PointsBet is offering that line, but you can see what are the five and six strikeout games. My numbers will be a little different than what's on the screen, but don't worry, just hang in there.
On the year, Stroman is 18-12 to the Under 5.5 strikeouts (60%) and 9-5 to the Under 5.5 Ks at home (64.2%).
Out of the last 15 RHP that faced the Cardinals, eight of them have gone Under 5.5 strikeouts (53.3%), per statmuse.
Oddly, when St. Louis is the road team and the RHP (Stroman) is at home (pictured below), the Cardinals have struck out six times or fewer to the starting RHP 10 times out the last 15 -- giving the Under 5.5 a 66.7% hit rate.
Stroman has a lower hit rate at home, so I feel good playing that trend combined with this one.
The Cardinals are not hitting the best lately with a .240 batting average and 53 strikeouts to 13 walks in the last six games. However, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle can bring those numbers down a little.
Stroman is a great pitcher, but I think six Ks is too high for the 5-foot-7 spark-plug.
Back his Under 5.5 Ks and play the 4.5 Ks for a half-unit.
Pick: Marcus Stroman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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