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Trevor Rogers O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Nationals
Trevor Rogers will make his third start versus the Nationals this season and each time has been a challenge.
He has scraped and fought to 5.0 innings in both, so it's only right he tries to surpass 5.0 innings for the third time.
They do say the third time is a charm, but not for the strikeout total (in my opinion).
Rogers already went Over his strikeout total in the first meeting versus Washington (5/2/21) and Under in the previous (7/20/21). I was expecting a 4.5 K prop for a one unit play, so a 5.5 makes me light up.
Rogers owns a 4.50 ERA and .243 OBA versus the Nationals with nine strikeouts to six walks in 10.0 innings pitched.
Being a LHP versus Washington isn't fun and I don't expect tonight to be.
Overall, 10 of the last 14 LHP went Under 4.5 strikeouts against the Nationals (71.4%) and four of the previous five (80%), per statmuse.
With that number being 5.5 Ks though, only two of the last 25 LHP recorded six or more strikeouts -- that's 8%. Only two out of 20 since the All-Star break (10%).
Rogers has not seen the Nets since 7/20. He took off October for personal matters, but since returning in September, Rogers owns a 6.23 ERA and .257 OBA over 8.2 innings pitched.
Overall, Rogers was an animal to the 5.5 line earlier in the season with 15 Overs and two Unders to the 5.5 number (88.2%), per NBC's model. However, in the last six games, Rogers went Under 5.5 Ks five times (83.3%).
He struck out six versus Atlanta but allowed four earned runs. Versus Philly, Rogers totaled three Ks but permitted six hits and two earned runs.
He has not faced any Washington hitter more than five times, but being the third matchup between Rogers and the Nats -- there is plenty to go off.
His outs prop on books is trending towards 14.5 Ks and with 5.0 innings looking less and less likely, I like Rogers to go Under his total.
Anything past -135 is one unit -- anything under -135 odds is 1.5 units for this prop.
Pick: Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
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Tanner Houck 3+ Strikeouts and Red Sox Win
Tanner Houck is somehow still searching for his first win of the season. Last year, Houck made three starts and won all three, while this season has been quite the opposite with 11 starts and zero wins but four losses.
Boston has won five out of the 11 starts he's made, but Houck has only lasted 5.0 or more innings four times (36.3%).
Houck recorded eight Ks twice, three and seven strikeouts in those four 5.0 inning performances, but owns an 0-2 record with two no-decisions.
With Houck to record a win for +125 on PointsBet, I will opt for the same game parlay that ensures if Houck does not get the win and Boston does, this can still cash.
Let's ride with three-plus strikeouts. Houck has recorded three or more Ks in eight out of 11 stars (72.7%) and Boston is 5-3 on the ML when he does.
Houck has hit six or more strikeouts (O/U 5.5), his prop line for today, seven out of 11 times (63.6%) as a starter.
However, Houck is 2-3 to the Over 5.5 Ks in his last five starts. On the road, he is 1-3 to the Over 5.5 Ks, per NBC's player prop model. The model predicts 6.1 strikeouts, hence why some of the six-K games are in red.
Houck also made two relief appearances, so he has 13 total games pitched, but 11 starts.
The hit rate for three strikeouts (72.7%) is better than the four-plus Ks (63.6%) -- for some reasoning on why I took 3+ Ks even when he is successful to Over 5.5 in general.
The Mariners are in the middle to top half of the MLB's offensive categories such as batting average with .240 (T-14th), 52 strikeouts (T-15th) and 20 walks (T-11th) in the past six games.
Houck has yet to face Seattle, and since the Mariners stole Game 1 of the series, I feel comfortable backing the Red Sox to win Game 3 and win the split.
Seattle is three games behind Boston, so the pressure is on, which could keep Houck Under six strikeouts, but I highly doubt three.
Boston is -125 on the ML, so I am getting a slight discount, and if you did move up to 4+ strikeouts, you can grab +100 or better money, which I don't mind either.
Versus Seattle, 20 of the last 21 RHP had three or more strikeouts (95.2%) compared to 10-5 in the past 15 (66.7%) for four-plus Ks.
The Red Sox have beat the Mariners in six of the past nine meetings. Boston has played seven road games this month and went 4-3, falling by one run in all three losses. Afternoon baseball, let's get it!
Check back on Twitter later for more picks when lineups are released.
Pick: Tanner Houck 3+ Strikeouts and Red Sox win (1u)
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