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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props September 2nd: Mike Minor, Eric Lauer, Touki Toussaint O/U

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: September 2, 2021, 12:04 pm ET

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Mike Minor O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Indians

Mike Minor will make his third start against the Cleveland Indians and I am surprised to see a 6.5 line.

Minor has gone Under this in two straight starts after totaling six or seven Ks in four consecutive games. The Indians are hitting .276 in the last week (5th) and own 35 runs in six games (T-7th).

The last nine LHP went Under 6.5 strikeouts against Cleveland and 13 of the past 15 starting LHP (86.6%), per statmuse. Minor has met the Indians twice and recorded five combined strikeouts in 9.1 total innings pitched this season.

LHP vs CLE

 

In August, Minor owned a 5.24 ERA and .286 OBA to go along with 21 strikeouts in 22.1 innings pitched. Minor has surrendered at least six hits in his last four games and three or more earned runs in five straight.

That could be problematic against a Cleveland squad who is swinging the bat well lately and will see Minor for the third time.

The NBC's player prop model has Minor going 7.0 innings pitched for 6.4 strikeouts, but I will take my chances he goes Under both of those marks. The 6.5 line is too high and 5.5 seems more appropriate versus Cleveland.

KC CLE MLB

Pick: Mike Minor Under 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Eric Lauer O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Giants

Hot or not? No! Not his looks. I am talking about his K Prop.

Eric Lauer can be confusing to bet on, but he is always good for an Under in my book. He had six strikeouts in two of his four starts this past month and three Ks in the other two.

Today, he faces the San Francisco Giants, who just got passed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings last night -- I would not want to be Lauer.

San Francisco now sits in the wildcard, so they will need to win more games down the stretch than Los Angeles, starting now.

Lauer has yet to face the Giants this season, but lately, seven of the past 10 starting LHP went Under 4.5 strikeouts against San Fran, per statmuse.

The three to go Over, Framber Valdez, Max Fried and Kyle Freeland. Only five of those 10 LHP made it 5.0 innings as well.

LHP vs SF

 

In August, Lauer hit the over 4.5 Ks twice and Under twice. He owned a 3.00 ERA, .246 OBA and 18 strikeouts in 18.0 innings.

When Lauer goes 5.0 innings, he is 5-5 to the 4.5 number this season (50%). When Lauer plays beyond 5.0 innings, hs is 3-2 to the Over (60%). 

However, according to NBC's player prop model, when he goes under 5.0 innings or fewer, Lauer is 7-6 to the Under 4.5 Ks (54%). On the year, Lauer is 9-9 to the 4.5 number (50%). As a starter, he is 8-6 to the Over 4.5 Ks (57.1%).

Eric Lauer hit rate

 

Lauer has struggled with walks lately, combining for five in the last two. 

The Giants have 22 walks in the past six games, tied for 9th-best in the last week. They are hitting .203 (28th) and have 62 Ks in the last seven games (6th-most). 

While those numbers are terrible outside the walks, San Francisco has played some very good pitchers in that stretch. Before Brett Anderson yesterday, the Giants faced Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Ian Anderson, Huascar Ynoa and Max Fried in five straight games.

I will play Lauer Under 4.5 strikeouts and would not play this past -150 odds. I think the Giants can smack him around and keep him Under five Ks and five innings.

Pick: Eric Lauer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

Touki Toussaint O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies

This line is not available yet, but this is a play I will probably add if we get the line I want. 

If we get a 5.5 prop, I will be very happy about playing this, while the 4.5 makes it a little more intense depending on the odds.

I have enjoyed watching Toussaint pitch as of late. He had five or more strikeouts in his last three starts and has had plenty of time for rest outside the 12-pitch spot inning against the Giants (8/29). 

Toussaint has not started since 8/22. He is now considered the sixth man in the rotation to give Braves' Max Fried and Charlie Morton an extra rest of rest down the stretch. 

Toussaint has pitched on five and six days rest in August after four days rest in July, so this will be a new challenge for Touki. Playing at Coors Field is also never easy. This start will be the first time he has ever pitched there. 

We have witnessed seven of the past 10 RHP go Under 4.5 strikeouts (70%) with eight Under 5.5 Ks at Coors Field (80%), per statmuse

Going back to the previous 15 RHP in Colorado, 11 of the 15 RHP went Under 4.5 Ks (73.3%) and 12 of 15 Under 5.5 strikeouts (80%).

RHP vs COL

 

I will have to ride with his Under, depending on the number. NBC's player prop model projects 5.0 strikeouts in 5.1 innings against the Rockies. 

As you can see on the hit rate chart, Toussaint has a ton of five-strikeout games, four exactly in the seven starts. That 5.5 number would make this a bet worth grabbing, while the 4.5 would depend on the odds, preferably +110 or better. 

Touki hit rate

 

Check back on Twitter @VmoneySports for the update on this play when the prop and odds are released. 

Pick: Touki Toussaint Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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