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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props, September 9th: Huascar Ynoa, Jake Woodford Strikeout Prop

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: September 9, 2021, 11:27 am ET

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Huascar Ynoa O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Nationals

Huascar Ynoa will make his third start of the season versus the Nationals and after four and five strikeout performances, his prop line is set at 5.5.

Ynoa has faced Josh Bell, Luis Garcia, Yadiel Hernandez, Carter Kieboom, Juan Soto, and Andrew Stevenson of the current Washington roster for 20 plate appearances. Ynoa has six total strikeouts with two versus Kieboom and Stevenson, plus one against Bell and Garcia. 

Against Washington, Ynoa has not allowed a run in 12.0 innings over two starts. Today that changes. The Nationals have 40 runs in the past week (eight games) and are hitting .265, both ranking top 11.

Ynoa has nine strikeouts against Washington in those two games. However, I see something worth noting. 

In the five-strikeout performance, Ynoa struck out Herman Perez twice and Tres Barrera once for three of the five Ks. Both are down in AAA.

In the next meeting, he struck out Victor Robles two out of his four Ks, another guy in AAA baseball now. That is five of his nine Ks versus guys playing AAA.

Ynao will face Lane Thomas and Eduardo Escobar for the first time this season, plus a new catcher for Washington.

Looking over how RHP haver fared against Washington, it's favorable for the Under. Per statmuse, the Under 5.5 strikeouts is 12-2 (85.7%) in the last 14 games against the Nationals.

RHP vs WSH

 

Ynoa has hit the Under twice already and both starts were back in April and May.

NBC's player prop model projects Ynoa to record 5.4 strikeouts in 6.0 innings versus the Nationals.

As a starter, Ynao has gone Under 5.5 strikeouts in 60% of the last three, five and 10 games, plus the season.

Ynoa hit rate

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Ynao averages fewer than one strikeout per inning in the last seven, 15 and 30-day spans while posting an 0-3 record in four starts back from a hand injury after punching a bench. 

Yes, you read that right. Since coming back, he is 3-1 (75%) to the Under 5.5 strikeouts, posting nine on the Yankees lineup (surprise). 

Against the Giants, Marlins and Rockies, his other three starts, Ynoa recorded a combined 12 strikeouts in 18.0 innings. Back the Under 5.5 strikeouts here and I would even play this at 4.5 for +130 or better.

Pick: Huascar Ynoa Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

 

Jake Woodford O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Dodgers

Jake Woodford will be making his fourth start of the season and versus arguably his toughest opponent. Ok, it is not even arguable.

The Dodgers lineup should present some issues for the RHP after being a relief pitcher for most of the season. Woodford last pitched 5.1 innings of relief versus Milwaukee on Saturday (9/4), his first action since July 31st.

He allowed two hits and struck out five, entering the game down 4-0. He did not allow a run, which was a positive, but  the Brewers have the fourth-most strikeouts in the past week with 68 Ks in seven games and 18 walks.

Los Angeles is tied seventh-best with 45 strikeouts in the past week (six games) and 19 walks (T-14th).

Versus the Los Angeles Dodgers in relief this season (6/2), Woodford went through eight different hitters, including pitcher Walker Bueheler. Woodford only struck out Austin Barnes while allowing four RBIs on two hits.

At home, Woodford has a 5.29 ERA, .299 OBA, and 15 strikeouts to eight walks in 17.0 innings on the season. 

Woodford struck out six versus the Chicago Cubs in 5.2 innings and three Minnesota Twins in 3.0 innings as a home starter. In his only other start, on the road versus the Cincinnati Reds, Woodford totaled two strikeouts in 5.0 innings -- all three of those starts were in July.

Five of the last 10 RHP to hit the Over 3.5 strikeouts against the Dodgers needed 6.0 innings, per statmuse.

There were a few spot starts in there like Jay JacksonDominic Leone or Pierce Johnson that take away from this data. However, looking back further down the game log, Woodford will need to go at least 4.0 innings to hit four-plus strikeouts versus the Dodgers with 5.0 innings likely being the key number.

RHP vs LAD

 

Woodford is not expected to go 6.0 innings by the NBC player prop model or myself.

The model projects Woodford to last 4.1 innings, which is a positive for a player that averages 0.83 strikeouts per inning.

Jake Woodford hit rate

 

This matchup will be Woodford's first day start of the season. The Dodgers have the league's lowest strikeout total during day starts with 314 in the lowest amount of day games played with 37 games. 

The Dodgers are also two games back from the Giants for the NL West lead and San Francisco is off today. With ground to make up, expect L.A. to get after Woodford in his first start in over a month.

With the model projecting 3.1 strikeouts in 4.1 innings, I will back Woodford to go Under 3.5 strikeouts. 

Pick: Jake Woodford Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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