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Odds and Ends

NBA 2021 Draft Odds: Exact First Four Order Prop +450

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: July 29, 2021, 12:20 pm ET

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First Four Exact Order:

Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Barnes +450

Every NBA Draft, we see one player climb draft boards at an enormous rate. Last year, Patrick Williams went No. 4 to Chicago, Darius Garland in 2019, going No. 5 to Cleveland and Jaren Jackson No. 4 to Memphis -- all exceeded draft expectations.

This year's player is Scottie Barnes of Florida State. While he has steadily climbed draft boards where most have him slotted at No. 5, there is a good chance he becomes the shakeup of the draft.

Yes, there are rumors the Pistons are not sold on Cade Cunningham. I call a bluff as they attempt to entice the Rockets or Cavaliers to move up. I slotted Jalen Green No. 2 overall (-150) weeks ago and with odds at -400 now, I feel confident Houston makes the right choice.

Cleveland should do what everyone expects and select the best player available and arguably the last star potential player in this draft class. 

Outside the top three, there is a drop-off in talent and a ton of project players. I will say I see potential in the lottery for most of the prospects to last eight-plus years in the NBA, but the top three should present immediate impacts to their squads.

Going over the No. 4 selection, there are a few ways to approach this, but first, why Barnes over Jalen Suggs for the Raptors?

Well, defense first off. 

Barnes presents length and athleticism at 6-foot-8 and a 7-foot-3 wingspan alongside Pascal Siakam with OG Anuouby on the wing. If they could retain Kyle Lowry, that would give them a strong starting five defensively, with Fred VanVleet rounding out the lineup.

At publishing, the odds for the first four on Suggs at No. 4 are -250 odds compared to +450 with Barnes. Those are the only two choices at that spot, so there is a clear hedge situation to make a good cashout, pending any trades.

I do not believe we will see any trades in the top four or top seven, for that matter. I believe the top seven up to the Warriors will be set with their current picks. 

Orlando, Sacramento and Memphis at 8-10 will be the three teams to shake up the lottery if there is a trade or two made in the top 10. 

Suggs has the third-best odds at +400 to go No. 5 behind Jonathan Kuminga (+200) and Barnes (-215). Barnes is third to go No. 4 at +300 behind Evan Mobley (+200) and Suggs (-165).

With those heavy odds, it is best to play small amounts on Suggs at No. 5 (+400) and Barnes at No. 4 (+300) for a combined +700 if it cashes or rolls with the first four order of +450. 

I will say there is a chance Kuminga (+200) or James Bouknight (+1000) could be sneaky picks at the No. 5 if Suggs drops out the top four, but I would not expect Suggs to last past Oklahoma City at No. 6.

My favorite way to play this is to bet the first four exact order at +450 and Suggs at No. 5 for a combined +850 payout. 

At $10 each, you would make a combined $85 if the first five picks go Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Barnes and Suggs.

There is value there, and if you already selected Suggs to go No. 4, Barnes No. 5 or either players' Under 5.5 total -- this is a dream hedge situation for you.

Play smaller amounts for a larger payout on these underdog props unless there is breaking news from Toronto's camp leading up to the NBA Draft, then up your unit wager if it's all but confirmed Barnes or Suggs will be a Raptor.

Pick: First Four Exact Order: Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Barnes (0.10u), Suggs to go No. 5 (0.10u)

 

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