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Kevin Durant Over 32.5 Points vs. Bucks
This Bucks and Nets series could be over tonight as going down 0-3 to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant seems like an offseason sentence.
My Finals MVP pick has been a monster in the postseason. After getting hooked on the Over 32.5 points in Game 2, I am back on KD. Durant scored 32 points in 33 minutes and three quarters, getting the fourth quarter off.
While everyone is talking about Milwaukee this and Bucks that for Game 3, whether or not the Nets win or lose, Durant needs to drop 30-plus points. Against the Bucks this season, Durant has scored 30, 42, 32, 29 and 32 points.
Durant shot 18 field goal attempts and scored 32 points in Game 2. He is now at 32.0 points, 55.0% from the field, 50% from three and 91.1% from the free-throw line in the postseason. Durant is the best player in the playoffs and I expect that to continue in order to go up 3-0.
NBC's model projects Durant to score 30.5 points in 38 minutes on 19.0 field goal attempts. When Durant shot the ball 18 or more times in the postseason, he scored 32, 39, 42, 29 and 32 points.
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When Durant plays at least 36 minutes without James Harden, he has scored 33 or more points in 6-of-10 games (60%) and 28, 28, 29 and 32 in the four Unders, per props.cash. The three games he scored Under 30 points all took place back in December and January.
If the Bucks keep it close and Durant plays four quarters, I love him to go Over his total. We have to semi root for the Bucks to keep it close as the last outing was a breeze to 30 points for Durant.
During the regular season, Durant averaged 15.2 second-half points per game (4th). KD now ranks second in the NBA's postseason with 17.4 second-half points per game among remaining players.
He leads the way in the third quarter with 12.7 per game during the playoffs. So, expect Durant to fill it up in a close game in the last 24 minutes. Durant scored 32 and 42 points in his only trips to Milwaukee this season, let's see what's in his bag with a chance to go up 3-0.
Pick: Kevin Durant Over 32.5 Points (1u)
Kawhi Leonard O/U 27.5 Points vs. Jazz
The Jazz survived Game 1 versus the Clippers and whenever LA is coming off a loss, Kawhi Leonard becomes a good bet.
Leonard has been an animal off a loss in the postseason. This year, the Clippers star scored 41 points in Game 2 versus Dallas, 36 points in Game 3 and 45 points in Game 6 following losses.
Last season, Leonard scored 36, 32 and 23 in three wins after losses. Over the previous two postseasons, Leonard scored 28 or more in 14-of-21 (66.7%) games. This season he has scored 28 or more in 5-of-8 (62.5%) playoff games.
NBC's model projects Leonard to record 27.3 points in 39 minutes. Leonard has averaged 39 or more minutes in his past six postseason series.
On the season, Leonard has scored 28 or more points in 11-of-18 (61.1%) contests at 37 or more minutes, per props.cash. When Leonard plays 40-plus this season, he is 4-of-7 (57.1%) to the Over.
Leonard has played 36, 38 and 39 minutes against the Jazz this season and only hit the Over once. I like the Over here as Leonard is shooting 59.5% from the field, 40.9% from three and 90.6% from the free-throw line in the postseason.
In the second half of playoff games this season, Leonard is averaging 8.0 points per third quarter (11th) and 6.9 in the fourth (14th) for 14.9 points per game in the second half (7th). He along with Durant, are two of the best closers and fourth quarter scorers in the game. I feel comfortable backing both of them to have a great game scoring.
Foul trouble slowed him down last game and gave him a slow start. I do not expect that to happen again, as going down 0-2 headed back to LA is not an option for the Clippers. This is juiced on PointsBet, so I am ok playing this at 28.5 points or at 30+ for a positive return.
Pick: Kawhi Leonard Over 27.5 Points up to 29.5 Points (1u)
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