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Odds and Ends

NFL Props: Myles Garrett and Chase Young O/U Sack Totals

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: August 20, 2021, 1:30 pm ET

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Chase Young O/U 8.5 Sacks

Chase Young had a stellar rookie year that kept him Under this 8.5 mark because of a groin strain.

While Young missed one game, he dealt with that groin injury in Week 3 after a 2.5-sack start to the season.

When he came back, Young recorded 2.0 sacks over eight games, not the outcome we were expecting.

After getting healthy, Young finished the season with 3.0 sacks in the last four regular-season games and 4.0 in the last six games. 

Young recorded a sack in seven out of 15 games during his rookie season and I believe he can go 50% of his games with a sack or post more than one multi-sack game in his sophomore season with Washington.

Washington's star defensive lineman has the green light this season and in my opinion, a 10 sack year seems likely. 

Chase Young

 

Including NFC East opponents, Young will have nine games versus teams that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in sacks allowed last season. 

Most of those games will come at the end of the season, with the Panthers, Seahawks, Eagles, Cowboys and Giants being seven of the final eight games. 

The Giants and Falcons are the only teams ranking in the top 15 last season that Washington faces Weeks 1-8. I also like Young's matchups versus Las Vegas and Los Angeles Chargers with a chance to get to Derek Carr or Justin Herbert.

Young has also attracted NFL Defensive Player of the Year bets this offseason.

Per NBC's future model, Young's odds opened at 12-to-1 (+1200) and went down to +800 before the +1200 we have today.

Chase Young

 

I will not go as far as DPOY for Young, but I will take his Over 8.5 sack total for two units.

The next guy on my list, is worth a bet on his Over and DPOY.

Pick: Chase Young Over 8.5 Sacks (1u)

 

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Myles Garrett O/U 12.5 Sacks

Myles Garrett

Let me start by saying Myles Garrett is my MVP pick at +550 odds, which you can read here, so If I am playing that, you better believe I am playing the sack total.

His odds have moved from +650 to +550, per NBC's future model. On some outlets, he is split with Aaron Donald as the favorite.

Myles Garrett

 

Garrett finished sixth in the NFL last season with 12.0 sacks in 14 games. In 2019, he recorded 10 sacks in 10 games, totaling 22 sacks in his last 24 games or 0.91 per game. 

Garrett has only played one full 16-game season in his short career and with the schedule expanding to 17 games, there is another shot at playing more.

In the only 16-game season of his career, Garrett had 13.5 sacks in 2018 for 35.5 sacks in his previous 40 games (0.88 per game). Those are monster numbers for a guy that has dealt with a few injuries and one issue we don't need to speak about (I'm a Steelers fan).

If Garrett averages 0.88 or 0.91 sacks per game, stretched out over a 17-game season is 14.96 or 15.47 sacks -- hitting the Over comfortably.

Cleveland's schedule sets up for Garrett to have a few potential monster games. He has home games versus Houston (Week 2), Chicago (Week 3), Denver (Week 7), Pittsburgh (Week 8), Detroit (Week 11) and Las Vegas (Week 15) and Cincinnati (Week 17).

Those games scream at least one sack each or a few multi-sack games. Garrett had multi-sack games versus Cincinnati, Dallas and Washington last season and 11 total in his four-year career.

Last season facing the AFC North, Garrett had one sack versus Pittsburgh, three versus Cincinnati and none against Baltimore. 

Historically, Garrett has 5.0 sacks against the Steelers in six games, 1.5 sacks versus the Ravens in six games and 5.0 against the Bengals in five games. I like him to take advantage of a terrible Steelers offensive line and the chances he gets to Joe Burrow a time or two as well.

For the rest of the schedule, Garrett has a chance to shine as the best player on the team. With Week 1 against the Chiefs and road games versus the Vikings (Week 4), Chargers (Week 5) and Patriots (Week 10), plus four primetime games -- I like the chances Garrett wreaks havoc on his opponents season. 

Pick: Myles Garrett Over 12.5 Sacks (1u)

 

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