Odds and Ends

NFL Sunday's Week 5 Player Props, Bets: Pitts, Mayfield, Chiefs on SNF

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: October 10, 2021, 9:06 am ET

The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. 



Rondale Moore had 68 and 114 receiving yards in Weeks 1-2 before one yard and 28 in Weeks 3 and 4.

Now is the perfect time to buy low on Moore facing the worst secondary he has seen thus far.

49er corners Josh Norman and K'Waun Williams are both questionable after missing the Seahawks matchup in Week 4. The rest of the cornerback position has had issues facing Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson back-to-back weeks, how about Kyler Murray now?

NBC's player prop model projects Moore to record 4.1 receptions on 5.1 targets for 48.4 yards, smashing his 3.5 receptions prop and 31.5-yard prop.

The 49ers have allowed 13 passing plays of 20-plus yards through four games and I like the chances Moore adds to that total on Sunday.



This season, Moore has caught 16 of his 18 targets from Murray and averaged 13.2 yards per reception (YPR). Last week, Moore had three receptions for 28 yards and 9.3 yards per reception. 

At 9.3 yards per reception, that was the second-lowest yard total of the season for him, and at that, he is just one broken tackle away from hitting Over 31.5 receptions.

I would play this at 37.5 for 1 unit, nothing higher than that.

Pick: Rondale Moore Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (2u)



Can you believe Kyle Pitts hasn't scored a touchdown yet?

What better time than to versus the Jets in London the week that he turned 21-years-old? I can't really think of one.

On a serious note, this matchup is favorable for the No. 4 overall pick, who was also the highest tight end ever drafted in NFL history.

The Jets have only surrendered two touchdowns via the air (fewest in the NFL) while six on the ground (second-most). While that is a red flag, the Falcons have eight passing touchdowns (T-11th) to one rushing touchdown (fewest) on offense. Something has to give, and it will in London.

The Jets are not a defensive team, and that has been evident. The Falcons' offense has featured five different players catching a touchdown, with Cordarrelle Patterson receiving four of them (50%).

With all eyes on Patterson and where he lines up, plus Pitts.

Breaking news is Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are out for the Falcons, giving Pitts his best chance to score yet.

Pitts has six red-zone targets, tied second-most for all tight ends with the Bills' Dawson Knox and Broncos' Noah Fant.

All three trail the Raiders' Darren Waller. Waller has three touchdowns, while Knox and Fant each have two.

Going down the list, only two tight ends in the NFL with four or more red-zone targets have not scored a touchdown, per lineups.com: Pitts and Packers' Robert Tonyan (plays the Bengals this week).


TE Red Zone Targets



Pitts received a season-high three red-zone targets last week, which is half of them on the season.

Atlanta is attempting to utilize Pitts in the red-zone more, and what's better than trying again in London for all the fantasy football fans?

This opened at +200 odds when I grabbed it for 1u to win 2u. I will update when it becomes available again.

Updated odds: Now that Ridley and Gage are out -- I would play this for 2u.

Updated odds again: This is available at +140 to +180 odds everywhere. I re-grabbed this at +180, so I now have 2 units on Pitts to win 3.8 units if he scores a touchdown. Let's go! GET IN THERE BIG FELLA!

I would recommend playing at 1u or 1.5u depending the price, but either way, great odds for him to find his first score.

Pick: Kyle Pitts Touchdown (2u)


Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don't forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!



Davis Mills has had a rough start to his NFL career, but what did you expect playing for the Texans? 

Mills will face Mac Jones and Bill Belichick after they just lost at home to Tom Brady. I feel bad for Mills.

Against the Patriots, opposing quarterbacks like Zach Wilson went for 210 yards on 19/33 with four interceptions or Tua Tagovailoa, who posted 202 yards and one touchdown with one interception on 16/27. 

Jameis Winston was held to 128 passing yards with two touchdowns on 13/21. Brady recorded 269 passing yards on 22/43 with no touchdowns.

Mills will struggle against this Pats defense. New England is tied fourth with only four passing touchdowns permitted and 6.5 yards per attempt allowed, which is sixth-fewest. Mills, has had his own issues with moving the ball downfield.

The Texans' signal-caller ranks 34th in adjusted yards per attempt, 25th in air yards per attempt and 33rd in yards per attempt, per PlayerProfiler, among other poor stats.

NBC's player prop model predicts Mills to go for a whopping 148.5 passing yards! Well below his prop. Mills has one rushing yard on the season, so don't even worry about that. 

NE vs HOU Qbs

Mills hit rate chart


Mills has gone Under 200.5 passing and rushing yards in all three games under center.

I would play this down to 195.5 passing and rushing yards or 190.5 passing yards for 1 unit.

Under: Davis Mills Under 200.5 Passing and Rushing Yards (2u)


Taysom Hill Over 15.5 Rushing Yards vs. WFT

This is an awfully low line for Tasyom Hill, who received 33 and 34 snaps in the past two weeks compared to 22 and 10 in Weeks 1 and 2.

With Tony Jones Jr. out and Alvin Kamara taking the bulk of the snaps at running back, Hill becomes more relevant than ever.

Hill scored three touchdowns in the past two weeks and hit Over 15.5 rushing yards in three straight games. Versus the Giants and Patriots, Hill recorded six rushing attempts each and posted 28 and 32 yards, in addition to the three scores.

Jameis Winston remains under center, so for the Saints to be more dynamic, Hill is the way to go as the gadget play at QB/RB/WR. 

In Hill's last 15 games, including the postseason, he rushed for at least 15 yards in 13 games (86.6%) and 16-plus in 12 yards (80%). 

There is no reason to fade Hill here against WFT as Austin Ekeler (57), Larry Rountree (27), Devin Singletary (26), Zack Moss (60), Mitchell Trubisky (19), Cordarrelle Patterson (34), Wayne Gallman (29) and Matt Ryan (17) have all hit this through four games.

Back Hill to be more involved and rush for at least 16 yards. I would play this up to 19.5.

Pick: Taysom Hill Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (1.5u)



I love it so much it hurts. Baker Mayfield has not looked like himself since taking a big hit versus the Texans.

In Week 3 versus Chicago, Mayfield bounced back with 246 passing yards. However, his yards per attempt dropped from 10.1 in Week 2 to 7.9 in Week 3.

In Week 4, Mayfield's torn labrum affected him dearly with 4.7 yards per attempt and passing yards total.

So this line of 247.5 seemed too high to begin with. Here is how opposing quarterbacks have faired against the Chargers this season.


Week 4: Derek Carr -- 196 passing yards -- 61.8 completion %

Week 3: Patrick Mahomes -- 260 passing yards -- 61.4 completion %

Week 2: Dak Prescott -- 237 passing yards -- 85.2 completion %

Week 1: Taylor Heinicke -- 122 passing yards -- 73.3 completion %


The Chargers have locked it down over the last weeks versus some hot quarterbacks as far as completion percentage is concerned. That is concerning for Mayfield, who posted a 45.5% completion percentage after a 61.1% performance in Week 3.

There are a lot of negatives into Mayfield's performance lately. Establishing the run early on with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are more viable options than overusing Mayfield this early in the season.

In 10 out of 16 games last season, Mayfield averages 7.3 yards per attempt or fewer, so this seems like a great look on the road versus a tough Chargers defense. 

I would play this down to 229.5 passing and rushing or just the passing yards Under.

Pick: Baker Mayfield Under 247.5 Passing and Rushing Yards (1.5u)



Sunday Night Football has been amazing this season and we could see one, if not the best matchup yet.

Chiefs versus Bills, let's go!!

You probably think, why Cole Beasley and not Stefon DiggsTravis KelceTyreek Hill or one of the quarterbacks? Well, I won't lie, I like them all in this game, but Beasley's line is way too low.

Dawson Knox has been the highlight of everyone's red zone screens and fantasy teams, but this is not the Knox game. Diggs and Beasley will be the primary targets throughout this contest and Josh Allen could easily toss 40-plus passes in attempt to keep up with Patrick Mahomes.

Breaking down Beasley, the NBC player prop model predicts Beasley to receive 6.2 receptions on 7.7 targets, crushing his O/U 4.5 reception prop. 

Cole Beasley


Beasley has hit the Over 4.5 receptions in seven of the last 10 games on the road (10%). He has cashed the Over six of the previous 10 overall (60%). 

Versus the Chiefs last season, Beasley recorded four receptions on seven targets for 45 yards a touchdown in the regular season. They met again in the postseason and Beasley totaled seven receptions on nine targets for 88 yards. That is 11 receptions on 16 targets in two games.

Buffalo does not lose very often, only five games since the start of 2020, to be exact. Beasley caught 6, 4, 11, 7 and 8 passes in those five losses, hitting the Over four times (80%).

When Bills games are decided by 14 points, either way -- Beasley caught five or more passes in nine of the last 16 games (56.2%), but he is 5-1 in the last six (83.3%) and 6-2 in the past eight (75%) decided by 14 or fewer.

I bought into this prop at -120 odds and would play just 1 unit for -150. Anything under -150 odds can be 1.5u.

Pick: Cole Beasley Over 4.5 Receptions (1.5u)


Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don't forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!



Joe Burrow has been on fire this season, and if you have him and Ja'Marr Chase in a dynasty league on the SAME team like me -- well, you have loved what you have seen from the Bayou Bengal.

What to know for this matchup versus the Green Bay Packers?

NBC's player prop model projects Burrow to post 2.8 passing touchdowns, so clearly, the line should be O/U 2.5 after hitting this in four straight and six of the last eight.

Burrow TDs


For the Packers, they will be without star cornerback Jaire Alexander. Without Alexander, guys like Chase, Higgins and Tyler Boyd could have a day, especially if trailing to Aaron Rodgers and company.

Burrow is coming off AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after passing for 348 yards and two touchdowns against the No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence on Thursday Night Football.

I would play this to -170 as I grabbed the juiced -150.

PickJoe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs (1u)



I was the luckiest human alive last week to win the Under on Kyler Murray's passing yards, but I will 100-percent take the 2 unit win.

Anyway, how about an Over?

Murray is facing the 49ers, who have been humbled by Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson in back-to-back weeks at home, now they go to Arizona to see one of the MVP front-runners in Murray.

With questions at quarterback for the 49ers, I expect Trey Lance to put on a show in his own right and give San Fran a boost offensively. With that being said, I don't see a significant blowout as each game gets tougher as an undefeated team -- the last undefeated team at that (referring to Arizona, of course).

Murray should be 4-0 to this number on the 2021 season, but sitting at 3-1, it's an Over or nothing here.

NBC's player prop model projects Murray to record 347.9 passing yards, so in other words, destroying this total.

Murray projection


Murray has recorded 241, 150, 230 and 247 passing yards in four career games versus the 49ers, all resectable numbers for him before this season.

Murray has totaled 289, 400, 316 and 268 passing yards to start 2021, so clearly, he's on an entirely different level. Keep riding that. I would play this to 289.5 passing yards. I bought in at -115 odds.

Pick: Kyler Murray Over 284.5 Passing Yards (1u)


Keenan Allen Over 6.5 Receptions vs. Browns

Keenan Allen has started the season with seven or more receptions and 11-plus targets in three of four games. The veteran receiver has been the No. 1 target and will be much needed against this Browns defense in Week 5.

Allen ranks third on the season in targets (44) and first in red zone targets (9). He has also cashed this in seven of the last nine games at home (78%), per NBC's player prop model.

Keenan Allen at home


The Browns pass rush and defense will likely keep this game close, so backing a receiver like Allen to build up receptions and stay close to the line of scrimmage seems wise.

Allen has played 118 snaps in the slot (9th) and ran 144 routes (8th) thus far, making him one of the most lethal weapons in the slot. His average target distance ranks 64th with 9.6 yards, so his receptions prop is more relevant than his receiving this week and most weeks.

I like him to pile up targets and receptions as Allen is one of the most dependable and established receivers in the game. I grabbed this at -120 odds and would play it out to -150 odds.

Pick: Keenan Allen Over 6.5 Receptions (1u)


Dan Arnold Over 20.5 Receiving Yards vs. Titans

This is an interesting but sharp play, in my opinion.

Dan Arnold played 31% of his snaps in his Jaguars' debut last week and caught both of his targets for 29 yards. At that point, Arnold barely knew the playbook and was still a weapon for Trevor Lawrence.

Arnold trailed Chris Manhertz (41%) for snap count share, but Manhertz had one catch on one target for seven yards. Arnold is clearly the guy they want moving forward, and Jacksonville went out of their way to trade for him.

Arnold has a significant advantage for seeing a snap count boost with 10 days to learn the playbook in this spot. He last played for the Jags on Thursday Night Football (September 30th) versus the Bengals, so plenty of rest and time to spend around the team (practice/playbook/comradery).

This is likely the lowest line we will get all season on the Jags' tight end as he cleared this in three straight games. I grabbed the 20.5 at -125 odds and would play this up to 24.5 for 1u or pivot to Over 2.5 receptions!

Pick: Dan Arnold Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (1u)


Browns at Chargers: Under 47

As you know, with my Baker Mayfield play, the Browns quarterback is banged up, which will prevent the Browns from stretching the field at times and becoming predictable.

With one of the best, if not the best 1-2 rushing attack in the game, plus a phenomenal defense, it's hard not to back the Browns to keep it close.

So, there is a better bet on the board, the Under.

As a career road underdog, Baker Mayfield is 5-11 on the ML (31.2%), per NBC's player prop model, and the Browns have scored 24 or less in 10 of those 16 games (62.5%).

Baker as road dog


If you look at the teams he lost to, we are talking about Patrick Mahomes' chiefs, Lamar Jackson's Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger's Steelers, Tom Brady's Patriots and more, so I cannot take the 5-11 ML stat into account too much.

However, the Browns scoring 14 points last week was alarming after putting up 26 on Chicago. The Browns defense ranks tied for second in the NFL with 14 sacks, and that will be the key to a Cleveland win today.

The Chargers' defense looks solid, holding every opponent to 24 or fewer points this season, including the Chiefs. Los Angeles is top 10 in sacks with nine and ranks seventh with an opposing 88.3 QBR.

That will come in handy, and I expect both teams to have a tough time scoring and Cleveland to rely on the ground game and run the clock.

I bought in at -115 odds and if all you have is 46.5, by the half-point to save a push as 47 is a key number.

If the Browns Team Total was 24.5, I would take that, but at 23.5, there is some value there, just not enough to go for it.

Pick: Under 47 (1u)


Bills at Chiefs: Chiefs ML

The Chiefs are on Sunday Night Football once again and I smell a fun one brewing here.

On primetime, the Chiefs are 8-2 on the ML (80%) in the last 10, 6-4 ATS (60%) and 7-3 to the Under (70%).

Here are the last 10 games and eight wins for the Chiefs, per NBC's Edge Finder.

KC Primetime L10


Currently, the Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games overall (20%) and I don't play -2.5 spreads, so I will gladly take the ML. Buffalo is 3-7 on the ML in the last 10 on primetime and 2-1 with Allen under center, beating the Steelers and 49ers, but losing to the Chiefs.

Buffalo has played Pittsburgh, Miami, WFT and Houston through four weeks. AKA nobody! (coming from a Steelers fan).

I think we are overacting here and while Josh Allen and company are impressive, Kansas City's offense should prove to be far too much for Buffalo.

The Bills lost by 9 and 14 points to the Chiefs last season and Kansas City won five of the last six versus Buffalo.

Bet it to happen again. I would play the Chiefs up to -150 odds for 1u -- I played them at -140.

Pick: Chiefs ML (1.5u)


PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.