Loading scores...
Odds and Ends

NFL Week 5 Player Props: Rondale Moore, Kyle Pitts TD, Joe Burrow

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: October 8, 2021, 9:16 am ET

The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. 

 

Rondale Moore O/U 31.5 Receiving Yards vs. 49ers

Rondale Moore had 68 and 114 receiving yards in Weeks 1-2 before one yard and 28 in Weeks 3 and 4.

Now is the perfect time to buy low on Moore facing the worst secondary he has seen thus far.

49er corners Josh Norman and K'Waun Williams are both questionable after missing the Seahawks matchup in Week 4. The rest of the cornerback position has had issues facing Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson back-to-back weeks, how about Kyler Murray now?

NBC's player prop model projects Moore to record 4.1 receptions on 5.1 targets for 48.4 yards, smashing his 3.5 receptions prop and 31.5-yard prop.

The 49ers have allowed 13 passing plays of 20-plus yards through four games and I like the chances Moore adds to that total on Sunday.

AZ-SF WRs

Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don't forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!

 

San Francisco surrendered four plays of 40-plus yards through the air this season, while Arizona's Murray has the fourth-most completions of 20-plus yards (18) and two of 40 or more yards.

This season, Moore has caught 16 of his 18 targets from Murray and averaged 13.2 yards per reception (YPR). Last week, Moore had three receptions for 28 yards and 9.3 yards per reception. 

At 9.3 yards per reception, that was the second-lowest yard total of the season for him, and at that, he is just one broken tackle away from hitting Over 31.5 receptions.

Speaking of broken tackles, Moore, standing at 5-foot-7, is slippery and ranks fourth out of all NFL wide receivers in yards after catch (YAC) with 139. 

He's a sparkplug player that averages 11.7 yards per target (10th), which means at three targets -- his yards per catch averages put him at 35.1 yards, making this 31.5 prop line too low.

Moore should only need 2-3 receptions to hit this prop, but 3-4 would solidify 31-plus yards receiving yards.

His longest reception prop is at 15.5 yards, which seems low considering how bad San Francisco's secondary has been and continues to be. The injury report will tell more, but with or without Norman and Williams, I still love Moore to surpass this total and so does our model.

I grabbed this at -115 odds for 2 units. This will be my biggest play and featured on Blitzing The Board Thursday 3-4 PM ET and on NBC Sports on Peacock.

I would play it out to 34.5 yards for 1.5 units. Anything Over 35 becomes a 1 unit bet -- do not go past 37.5.

Pick: Rondale Moore Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (2u)

 

Kyle Pitts Touchdown vs. Jets

Can you believe Kyle Pitts hasn't scored a touchdown yet?

What better time than to versus the Jets in London the week that he turned 21-years-old? I can't really think of one.

On a serious note, this matchup is favorable for the No. 4 overall pick, who was also the highest tight end ever drafted in NFL history.

The Jets have only surrendered two touchdowns via the air (fewest in the NFL) while six on the ground (second-most). While that is a red flag, the Falcons have eight passing touchdowns (T-11th) to one rushing touchdown (fewest) on offense. Something has to give, and it will in London.

The Jets are not a defensive team, and that has been evident. The Falcons' offense has featured five different players catching a touchdown, with Cordarrelle Patterson receiving four of them (50%).

With all eyes on Patterson and where he lines up, plus Pitts.

Breaking news is Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are out for the Falcons, giving Pitts his best chance to score yet.

Pitts has six red-zone targets, tied second-most for all tight ends with the Bills' Dawson Knox and Broncos' Noah Fant.

All three trail the Raiders' Darren Waller. Waller has three touchdowns, while Knox and Fant each have two.

Going down the list, only two tight ends in the NFL with four or more red-zone targets have not scored a touchdown, per lineups.com: Pitts and Packers' Robert Tonyan (plays the Bengals this week).

TE Red Zone Targets

 

Pitts received a season-high three red-zone targets last week, which is half of them on the season.

Atlanta is attempting to utilize Pitts in the red-zone more, and what's better than trying again in London for all the fantasy football fans?

This should open around +200 odds when I grabbed it for 1u to win 2u -- now that Ridley and Gage are out -- I would play this for 2u.

Pick: Kyle Pitts Touchdown (2u)

 

Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don't forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!

 

Davis Mills O/U 200.5 Pass + Rush Yards vs. Patriots

Davis Mills has had a rough start to his NFL career, but what did you expect playing for the Texans? 

Mills will face Mac Jones and Bill Belichick after they just lost at home to Tom Brady. I feel bad for Mills.

Against the Patriots, opposing quarterbacks like Zach Wilson went for 210 yards on 19/33 with four interceptions or Tua Tagovailoa, who posted 202 yards and one touchdown with one interception on 16/27. 

Jameis Winston was held to 128 passing yards with two touchdowns on 13/21. Brady recorded 269 passing yards on 22/43 with no touchdowns.

Mills will struggle against this Pats defense. New England is tied fourth with only four passing touchdowns permitted and 6.5 yards per attempt allowed, which is sixth-fewest. Mills, has had his own issues with moving the ball downfield.

The Texans' signal-caller ranks 34th in adjusted yards per attempt, 25th in air yards per attempt and 33rd in yards per attempt, per PlayerProfiler, among other poor stats.

Mills efficiency

 

NBC's player prop model predicts Mills to go for a whopping 148.5 passing yards! Well below his prop. Mills has one rushing yard on the season, so don't even worry about that. 

NE vs HOU Qbs
Mills hit rate chart

 

Mills has gone Under 200.5 passing and rushing yards in all three games under center.

I would play this down to 195.5 passing and rushing yards or 190.5 passing yards for 1 unit.

Under: Davis Mills Under 200.5 Passing and Rushing Yards (2u)

 

Baker Mayfield O/U 247/5 Pass + Rush Yards vs. Chargers

I love it so much it hurts. Baker Mayfield has not looked like himself since taking a big hit versus the Texans.

In Week 3 versus Chicago, Mayfield bounced back with 246 passing yards. However, his yards per attempt dropped from 10.1 in Week 2 to 7.9 in Week 3.

In Week 4, Mayfield's torn labrum affected him dearly with 4.7 yards per attempt and passing yards total.

If you follow me on Twitter or NBC Sports Edge Football, you could have got to this one early when the news broke.

 

So this line of 247.5 seemed too high to begin with. Here is how opposing quarterbacks have faired against the Chargers this season.

 

Week 4: Derek Carr -- 196 passing yards -- 61.8 completion %

Week 3: Patrick Mahomes -- 260 passing yards -- 61.4 completion %

Week 2: Dak Prescott -- 237 passing yards -- 85.2 completion %

Week 1: Taylor Heinicke -- 122 passing yards -- 73.3 completion %

 

The Chargers have locked it down over the last weeks versus some hot quarterbacks as far as completion percentage is concerned. That is concerning for Mayfield, who posted a 45.5% completion percentage after a 61.1% performance in Week 3.

There are a lot of negatives into Mayfield's performance lately. Establishing the run early on with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are more viable options than overusing Mayfield this early in the season.

In 10 out of 16 games last season, Mayfield averages 7.3 yards per attempt or fewer, so this seems like a great look on the road versus a tough Chargers defense. 

Mayfield is also 4-10 SU as the road dog in the regular season.

I played the Under 247.5 Passing and Rushing Yards for -115 odds. I would play it down to 239.5-240.5 for 1.5u.

If all you have is passing yards, I prefer Under 230.5 passing yards as 1 unit play.

Pick: Baker Mayfield Under 247.5 Passing and Rushing Yards (1.5u)

 

Cole Beasley O/U 4.5 Receptions vs. Chiefs

Sunday Night Football has been amazing this season and we could see one, if not the best matchup yet.

Chiefs versus Bills, let's go!!

You probably think, why Cole Beasley and not Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill or one of the quarterbacks? Well, I won't lie, I like them all in this game, but Beasley's line is way too low.

Dawson Knox has been the highlight of everyone's red zone screens and fantasy teams, but this is not the Knox game. Diggs and Beasley will be the primary targets throughout this contest and Josh Allen could easily toss 40-plus passes in attempt to keep up with Patrick Mahomes.

Breaking down Beasley, the NBC player prop model predicts Beasley to receive 6.2 receptions on 7.7 targets, crushing his O/U 4.5 reception prop. 

Cole Beasley

 

Beasley has hit the Over 4.5 receptions in seven of the last 10 games on the road (10%). He has cashed the Over six of the previous 10 overall (60%). 

Beasley has steadily been the No. 2 target for Allen and with Emmanuel Sanders rivaling targets, I still am not worried about Beasley's workload. 

Versus the Chiefs last season, Beasley recorded four receptions on seven targets for 45 yards a touchdown in the regular season. They met again in the postseason and Beasley totaled seven receptions on nine targets for 88 yards. That is 11 receptions on 16 targets in two games.

Buffalo does not lose very often, only five games since the start of 2020, to be exact. Beasley caught 6, 4, 11, 7 and 8 passes in those five losses, hitting the Over four times (80%).

When Bills games are decided by 14 points, either way -- Beasley caught five or more passes in nine of the last 16 games (56.2%), but he is 5-1 in the last six (83.3%) and 6-2 in the past eight (75%) decided by 14 or fewer.

Back Beasley to get his share of targets as he still ranks 25th in target rate (26.2%) out of all WRs despite it seeming like he has been lost in the shuffle amid the recent blowout wins. He will be all over your screen Sunday Night.

Pick: Cole Beasley Over 4.5 Receptions (1.5u)

 

Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don't forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!

 

Joe Burrow O/U 1.5 Pass TDs vs. Packers

Joe Burrow has been on fire this season, and if you have him and Ja'Marr Chase in a dynasty league on the SAME team like me -- well, you have loved what you have seen from the Bayou Bengal.

What to know for this matchup versus the Green Bay Packers?

NBC's player prop model projects Burrow to post 2.8 passing touchdowns, so clearly, the line should be O/U 2.5 after hitting this in four straight and six of the last eight.

Burrow TDs

 

The Bengals have a slew of injuries to their squad right now, including running back Joe Mixon (likely out) and Tee Higgins (likely playing). 

Both of which benefit Burrow on the passing prop. Cincy will go with a running back committee against Green Bay, and the minute that goes south, expect Burrow to takeover.

For the Packers, they just signed former Cowboys' linebacker Jaylon Smith but will be without star cornerback Jaire Alexander

Without Alexander, guys like Chase, Higgins and Tyler Boyd could have a day, especially if trailing to Aaron Rodgers and company.

Burrow is coming off AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after passing for 348 yards and two touchdowns against the No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence on Thursday Night Football.

With the extra rest and a letdown spot for Green Bay, back Burrow to toss two touchdowns for the fifth straight time this season as I expect, we will not see O/U 1.5 TD passes for Burrow much longer.

I got this at -150 odds and would play it to -180 before throwing in a parlay with a Kyle Pitts touchdown or Rondale Moore Over 25+ yards.

Pick: Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs (1u)

 

Kyler Murray O/U 284.5 Passing Yards vs. 49ers

I was the luckiest human alive last week to win the Under on Kyler Murray's passing yards, but I will 100-percent take the 2 unit win.

Anyway, how about an Over?

Murray is facing the 49ers, who have been humbled by Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson in back-to-back weeks at home, now they go to Arizona to see one of the MVP front-runners in Murray.

With questions at quarterback for the 49ers, I expect Trey Lance to put on a show in his own right and give San Fran a boost offensively. With that being said, I don't see a significant blowout as each game gets tougher as an undefeated team -- the last undefeated team at that (referring to Arizona, of course).

Murray should be 4-0 to this number on the 2021 season, but sitting at 3-1, it's an Over or nothing here.

NBC's player prop model projects Murray to record 347.9 passing yards, so in other words, destroying this total.

Murray projection

 

Kyler Murray hit rate

 

By Sunday, Murray's prop line will be 300.5 or more, so grab the value now. He opened at 277.5 this week and moved quickly to 284.5. Last week, Murray opened at 262.5 and closed at 285.5.

As you read in my Rondale Moore piece, the 49ers are currently struggling in the secondary with injuries and replacements. 

San Francisco is respectable in passing yards and completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, but they have allowed seven touchdowns to one interception, a 98.7 QBR and 13 plays of 20-plus yards through the air. Murray should eat.

Murray has recorded 241, 150, 230 and 247 passing yards in four career games versus the 49ers, all resectable numbers for him before this season.

Murray has totaled 289, 400, 316 and 268 passing yards to start 2021, so clearly, he's on an entirely different level. Keep riding that.

Pick: Kyler Murray Over 284.5 Passing Yards (1u)

 

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.