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Odds and Ends

NHL Bets for Wednesday, July 7

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: July 8, 2021, 1:14 am ET

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The Montreal Canadiens were able to stave off elimination on Monday night, defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final by a score of 3-2 in overtime. Tonight, the Lightning will have another opportunity to win their second Stanley Cup in as many years, as the two sides prepare to square off in Game 5 at Amalie Arena (8 PM ET, NBC). Following a losing wager on Monday night (Tampa -1.5-puck line), here is a wager to consider from this evening’s game between the Canadiens and Lightning.


The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite losing Monday night, the Lightning remain the far superior side in this year’s Final. Yes, Montreal showed heart and tenacity to fend off a four-minute double-minor against captain Shea Weber at the tail end of regulation and into overtime. Yes, Nick Suzuki has been one of the best players on the ice for either side throughout this series. The fact remains – Tampa has registered two subpar efforts through the first four games of the series (Game 2 and Game 4), with those efforts resulting in a 3-1 victory and a 3-2 overtime loss. Now, shifting back to Tampa with the Stanley Cup on the line, the sharp version of the Lightning should be expected to be seen this evening. Edge Finder tells us that the Lightning are 7-0 (+4.37 units) this postseason following a loss, and there’s little reason to anticipate they will not extend that record to 8-0 tonight. 

As was laid out on Bet the Edge yesterday, the idea of taking Tampa on the three-way moneyline (currently -136 on PointsBet; implied probability of 57.6%) is not the worst option, however the price continues to shorten as we get closer to puck-drop (and Tampa must win in regulation). Initially the thought of Tampa -1.5 on the puck line offered some appeal at odds of +125 (implied probability of 44.4%), however that price has also shortened some, now sitting at +115 (implied probability of 46.5%) on PointsBet. Although the UNDER has not seen a great deal of success in this year’s Final (1-2-1, -1.09 units according to Edge Finder), U5 goals in tonight’s Game 5 offers more and more intrigue. With the price currently sitting at +110 (implied probability of 47.6%), it is worth gambling on a duel of the goaltenders, simply because the price is the only one that is near fair value (odds should be +113; implied probability of 46.9%).

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Prediction: Lightning 3 – Canadiens 1


-    Montreal Canadiens / Tampa Bay Lightning UNDER 5 goals (+110 on PointsBet)

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Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.