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Odds and Ends

PL Best Bets: Arsenal faces tough road test

by Brad Thomas
Updated On: September 16, 2022, 9:21 pm ET

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The Premier League paused play last weekend to mourn the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. There are still six teams whose games will not go on as scheduled this weekend and must be made up later. However, five games are still set to be played, and there's value to be found in the PL. The game we focus on for the Premier League Game of the Week is Brentford vs. Arsenal on Sunday at 7 a.m. ET. Here's a look at a few bets that I see having value:

Brentford vs. Arsenal (Sunday, 7 a.m. ET) on USA Network

Three-way Moneyline: Brentford (+330) | Draw (+275) | Arsenal (-125)

Bet: Both teams to score + 2.5 goals (-105)

Brentford have started the season well, picking up two wins and three draws on six matches. While they haven't played the best teams in the EPL, they have still scored 10 goals this season. Their most notable win was a 4-nil victory against Manchester United. They have done well on set pieces, and their midfield has been organized. The question becomes, can they score a goal against one of the best teams in the EPL? My answer to that is yes.

While Arsenal have had quite a few matches this season where they've had an xGA of less than one, Arsenal have conceded in four of the six matches they've played domestically and one in the loan Europa match. This isn't a fade of Arsenal's defending by any means. They still have the third lowest xGA behind Manchester City and Liverpool.

It is more of a belief that the Bees at home will be able to find one. The Bees have scored at least one in every match they have played. They also have conceded at least one goal in every match but one. While both teams to score is too juiced to play, there is value in playing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (-105).

Arsenal have the quality to score two against anyone this season. Their summer signings and newfound confidence have them at the top of the table. They have the third-highest xG but haven't entirely converted the quality looks they have seen. However, your expected and actual goals generally balance over time. So basically, they are due goals and should do well converting against the leaky side in Brentford. 2-1 is a common score line for Arsenal, and I think we see another 2-1 in this match.

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Bet: Ivan Toney shot on goal (-152) & Ivan Toney anytime goalscorer (+190)

If you think I'm banking on Brentford to score a goal and not take Ivan Toney's goal scorer prop for nearly 2/1 on my money, you're out of your mind. Toney has five goals in six games, but more importantly, he has an npxG of 1.8. That's pure insanity; he's expected to make 1.8 goals per game, not including penalty kicks. Toney doesn't take enough shots to consider the over on his shots, but his 2.65 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes have me easily wanting to back him to register at least one shot on goal at home. At the price, I am getting, betting his shot on goal and him to score at least one goal has too much value to pass up.

Brad Thomas

Brad is a sports handicapper who is lucky enough to write about his true love; sports. "We may all root for different teams, but our objective remains the same… Beat the books! Remember, it’s a marathon not a sprint." Follow Brad on Twitter @MrBradThomas.