Odds and Ends

PL Best Bets: Brighton battling at Elland Road

by Brad Thomas
Updated On: March 10, 2023, 8:15 pm ET

Arsenal supporters should be happy after they dodged a bullet and beat Bournemouth on the weekend. They are five points clear of Manchester City and look like a team who can win it all. Any Arsenal fan would tell you that winning the title or even competing for the title this season isn't something they would've ever imagined. They have grown so much under Mikel Arteta. Three years and he has Gunner supporters remembering the good ole days. Pleasant times for them and a breath of fresh air for those who wanted to see a new champion. Regardless of who wins, I'm happy to be able to bet on the Premier League week in and week out. As usual, I have a pair of bets that I will be betting on this week.

Leeds vs. Brighton (Saturday, 10 am ET)

Leeds are in hot water and in serious danger of being relegated. They have won just one game in their last 12 and have struggled to score. Yes, they have improved defensively, but life hasn't been all that great under new manager Javi Gracia. They have a good young nucleus, but that won't matter if they fail to stay up this season. They have one just one time in their last five and are dangerously close to the relegation line. Just surviving on goal differential is a dangerous game to play. They also host a dangerous team in Brighton. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Seagulls keep a clean sheet in this one.

I am on Brighton ML & under 4.5 goals (+130). Yes, I want and think Brighton will win this one. With just one loss in their last five, it's hard to think Leeds come away with three points over Brighton. Under Roberto De Zerbi, this Brighton team is tough. They should win the xG battle and probably win the game. If you're afraid of the blowout, then feel free to bet them on the money line. The price is right, but I'm getting greedy this weekend.

Bet: Brighton ML & under 4.5 goals (+130)

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Premier League Future Bet

Liverpool to finish top 4 (+100)

This bet can be found on PointsBet Sportsbook. I love Liverpool to finish inside the top 4. This bet is not only backed by stats, but it's a bit of a gut play. Who do you trust the most out of the teams jockeying for that fourth spot? It has to be Liverpool. Right now, Liverpool are just three points behind Tottenham with a +9 goal differential better than them. They are third in xG and fourth in xGA. They can score with the best of them, and defensively they have improved. They have scored the third most goals and conceded just the fifth most.

The improvements have been evident. They have five straight clean sheets and have climbed up to fifth on the table. In that span, they have an xGA of just 0.94. It's uncertain if this level of play can be sustained with this squad, but they are finally getting healthier. Their young players, Cody Gakpo and Darwin Nuñez, have gotten their feet underneath them and have blossomed.

The teams behind them are doing them favors as well. Newcastle has slid down the table due to their inability to score. They are winless in their last five and have scored just three goals in their previous seven matches. In 2023, they are 14th in xG. Tottenham, I trust the least of the three clubs. They don't have a great home-field advantage while being just seventh in x GD at home. They struggle to create goals and have been struggling to create both shot-creating and goal-creating actions.

Brad Thomas

Brad is a sports handicapper who is lucky enough to write about his true love; sports. "We may all root for different teams, but our objective remains the same… Beat the books! Remember, it’s a marathon not a sprint." Follow Brad on Twitter @MrBradThomas.