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Wilfried Zaha
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Odds and Ends

PL Best Bets: Backing Crystal Palace Presents Value

by Brad Thomas
Updated On: November 24, 2021, 9:03 pm ET

With the conclusion of UEFA Champions League matchday five, we now focus our attention back to the Premier League where we look to build off our 2-1 midweek success. Backing Ronaldo in the Champions League might be the easiest thing we have done this season. EPL matchday 13 gives us 10 exciting matches and one top four match.

Each week I will break down the EPL slate from a betting perspective trying to find the games that present the most value. All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook:

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Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)

Three-way moneyline: Crystal Palace (+120) | Draw (+230) | Aston Villa (+240)

When I was breaking down this game, there were multiple ways I wanted to attack it. At first, I had the idea that I would back Crystal Palace moneyline. +120 is a great price which probability likely exceeds implied probability. I wanted a bit of goal insurance in case of a draw, but draw no bet was priced -175 and a little out of my price range. Leading me to a third option and one that I ultimately landed on.  I will be parlaying Crystal Palace draw no bet (-175) with Liverpool moneyline (-350), making the price +103.

Early in the season I liked to fade Patrick Vierira, rightfully so, they had a four-match winless streak. What I learned during that span is this Crystal Palace team was vastly underrated coming into the season. They are unbeaten in their last five matches and have big wins over Manchester City and Wolverhampton. Wilfried Zaha is healthy and Christian Benteke has been playing out of his mind. He has scored four goals in five matches. The loss of James McAuthur might loom large long term, but I like Crystal Palace to win this match.

Last season without fans, home and away splits weren’t as important. Now with teams playing in front of their home crowd, it’s important to check. While Palace only have two wins at home this season, they have not lost in six games. They have +5 home goal differential and a +0.93 home xGD/90 which is third in all the Premier League. The Villains have replaced their manager and must figure out how to get better quality from their side moving forward, so I won’t put too much stock into their numbers this year. But it should still be recognized. Aston Villa are 1-0-5 on the road this season and have goal differential of -7 paired with an away xGD/90 of -0.51, I like our chances to win leg one of the parlay.

As for leg two of the parlay, I am backing Liverpool over Southampton for a few reasons. I initially wanted to back over 2.5 goals for leg two as Liverpool hit this in 83% of their match, but the bulk of the scoring would have to come from Liverpool. For an extra dollar, I gladly will take their moneyline. Liverpool sit third on the table with seven out of the possible 12 wins. They have a goal differential of +24, a home xG of 14.6 and a home xGD/90 of +1.61, second only to Manchester City. Liverpool are in fine form and I will take my chances backing them at home against Southampton.

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Brad Thomas

Brad is a sports handicapper who is lucky enough to write about his true love; sports. "We may all root for different teams, but our objective remains the same… Beat the books! Remember, it’s a marathon not a sprint." Follow Brad on Twitter @MrBradThomas.