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Roman Hemby
Tommy Gilligan
Odds and Ends

Players to Target in CFB DFS Week 5

by Zachary Krueger
Updated On: October 4, 2022, 7:52 am ET

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It was a big Week 4 for the elite running backs. Michigan's Blake Corum was the third-highest-priced back on the slate ($7,900) and finished as the RB1 on the week with 39.3 points, while Texas' Bijan Robinson was the second-highest-priced back at $8,300 and finished third with 27.3 points.

And at the wide receiver position success came at a massive discount with six of the top-12 scorers falling below the $5,000 range. Wake Forest's Jahmal Banks turned in a massive week in a near upset over Clemson when he turned in a 35.1-point performance at $3,900, going for 6-141-2 on the afternoon.

Below is a look at my favorite plays from last week and how they fared on the slate.

Krueger Week 4 DFS Plays Recap

Generally speaking, a lot of my top guys fared pretty well on the weekend -- the Washington State stack proved deadly from multiple angles. Donovan Ollie was fine, but not a total smash (5-80-0). However, those who paired Cameron Ward with Robert Ferrel ($3,000, 19.0 points) or De'Zhaun Stribling ($4,000, 19.2 points) saw a slightly better return.

The Nick Singleton breakout didn't go as hoped, but that's the nature of the beast -- or so I'm told.

With Week 4 in the books, it's time to set our sites on a Week 5 slate loaded with conference play.

Week 5 CFB DFS pic 1
Week 5 CFB DFS pic 2

Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.comPFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.

The Play Rates

College Football Data Play Rates

Team

Rush Rate

Pass Rate

Air Force

84.9%

15.1%

Alabama

33.7%

66.3%

Arkansas

64.8%

34.8%

Baylor

55.4%

44.2%

Florida State

53.5%

46.5%

Illinois

52.2%

47.8%

Iowa

50.9%

47.7%

Iowa State

40.9%

57.7%

Kansas

57.1%

42.9%

Kansas State

61.6%

38.4%

Kentucky

47.7%

50.6%

Maryland

46.9%

52.6%

Michigan

55.1%

44.9%

Michigan State

43.8%

54.2%

Minnesota

63.0%

36.5%

Mississippi State

30.0%

69.2%

Navy

82.6%

16.7%

Oklahoma

48.6%

51.4%

Oklahoma State

44.7%

55.3%

Ole Miss

63.8%

35.8%

Purdue

36.6%

62.9%

TCU

46.8%

53.2%

Texas A&M

52.8%

47.2%

Texas Tech

38.9%

60.8%

Wake Forest

44.8%

53.7%

Wisconsin

61.4%

36.6%

 

Quarterback Rush Attempts 

PFF Quarterback Rush Attempts

Player

Team

Attempts

Yards

Touchdowns

Haaziq Daniels

AIR FORCE

36

184

2

Bryce Young

ALABAMA

16

176

2

KJ Jefferson

ARKANSAS

47

305

4

Blake Shapen

BAYLOR

7

68

2

Jordan Travis

FLORIDA ST

11

65

1

Tommy DeVito

ILLINOIS

11

74

0

Spencer Petras

IOWA

5

15

0

Hunter Dekkers

IOWA STATE

17

58

1

Jalon Daniels

KANSAS

36

315

4

Adrian Martinez

KANSAS ST

45

313

6

Will Levis

KENTUCKY

11

52

2

Taulia Tagovailoa

MARYLAND

12

91

1

Payton Thorne

MICH STATE

10

82

0

J.J. McCarthy

MICHIGAN

10

93

1

Tanner Morgan

MINNESOTA

9

57

3

Will Rogers

MISS STATE

2

-1

0

Tai Lavatai

NAVY

48

127

2

Spencer Sanders

OKLA STATE

21

118

3

Dillon Gabriel

OKLAHOMA

11

158

2

Jaxson Dart

OLE MISS

22

212

0

Austin Burton

PURDUE

9

30

0

Max Duggan

TCU

12

77

0

Max Johnson

TEXAS A&M

9

103

0

Donovan Smith

TEXAS TECH

26

146

3

Sam Hartman

WAKE

8

72

0

Graham Mertz

WISCONSIN

2

32

1

Mispriced Player of the Week

Braydon Johnson, WR (Oklahoma State)
DraftKings Price: $4,300

The folks at DraftKings did a nice job of pricing this week's slate. The glaringly obvious mispriced player in an exploitable matchup doesn't feel like it's there in the way it did in previous weeks.

Nevertheless, the player I'm going with here is Oklahoma State's Braydon Johnson.

Priced at $4,300 on this weekend's slate, Johnson is averaging an explosive 21.4 YPR on the season. His receiving line of 14-300-2 leads all Oklahoma State receivers, as do his 26 targets. Johnson's teammate, slot receiver Brennan Presley, is second on the team in receiving (12-166-1 on 17 targets) but is priced at $6,900.

Braydon Johnson 2022 Stats

At his price, Presley comes at a high cost for a receiver who's nothing more than a safe play. Johnson on the other hand is a legitimately explosive threat who has seen 93.5% of his snaps come from out wide and faces a Baylor defense that ranks 18th on the slate in defensive success rate against the pass (41.35%).

Oklahoma State is one of the more pass-heavy teams on the slate, throwing at a 55.3% rate, while the total for this one currently sits at 56.5. Johnson is averaging 8.7 targets per game on the year and has caught 7-of-12 deep targets for 236 yards and 3 scores per PFF.

Hunter Dekkers, QB (Iowa State)
DraftKings: $5,800

Another pass-heavy team on this week's slate is Iowa State (57.7%), and this week they get a Kansas defense that's allowing 27.2 points per game and ranks 24th in passing defensive success rate (45.97%).

On the year, Dekkers has thrown for 1,029 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions, completing an impressive 71.6% of his passes. Dekkers is averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game over on DraftKings and is the 21st-highest priced quarterback on the slate.

Hunter Dekkers 2022 Stats

Dekker has attempted 31 or more passes in each of his first four games and has formed a nice connection with wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson (36-403-5, $7,800). Hutchinson is the second-highest-priced receiver on the slate but would make for a nice stack with Dekkers.

Correlating the two with Kansas' breakout quarterback Jalon Daniels ($7,000) could reap big rewards if this one turns into a shootout.

Taulia Tagovailoa, QB (Maryland)
DraftKings Price: $6,800

Taulia Tagovailoa exited last week's game against Michigan with an injury, but he is currently listed as the starter on Maryland's Week 5 depth chart. Assuming he's active, Tagovailoa has a chance to torch a down bad Michigan State team that beat the Terps 40-21 last season.

Tagovailoa and the Terps get this one at home and are throwing at a 52.6% clip on the year. Averaging an impressive 9.3 yards per attempt, Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,098 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions, which includes a four-touchdown game against Charlotte in Week 2.

Taulia Tagovailoa 2022 Stats

Boasting a trio of receivers, there are a number of ways to stack Tagovailoa against a porous Michigan State defense. Jeshaun Jones at $4,900 looks like the best play here. He's the fourth-cheapest Maryland receiver on the weekend but is third in routes run and second in receiving (13-193-2).

If you want a galaxy brain play, tight end Corey Dyches ($3,500) has caught 16-of-19 targets for 163 yards and one touchdown. Dyches has seen six targets in each of his last two games. Of the 26 teams on the slate, Michigan State's defense is one of the worst, ranking 23rd in overall defensive success rate (42.98%) and 25th in success rate against the pass (49.61%).

Maryland flirted with a road upset of No. 4 Michigan last week. Now at home against a struggling Michigan State team, I think the Terps hit their stride in a revenge game against Sparty.

Roman Hemby, RB (Maryland)
DraftKings: $5,300

Given the years of disappointment that Maryland football has provided, stuffing two Terps in this article has me shook. When this blows up in my face, I'll simply tell myself I knew better, and keep it moving.

A redshirt freshman from the 2021 class, Hemby has turned in an impressive start to the season, rushing 47 times for 341 yards and three touchdowns while also catching 10-of-11 targets for another 114 yards.

Roman Hemby 2022 Stats

Per PFF, Maryland's rushing attack ranks 12th in the nation with a rush grade of 88.0. Hemby is averaging a solid 4.1 yards before contact and is averaging 7.3 YPC. As previously mentioned, Michigan State's defense has struggled out the gate, and I expect Maryland to come away winners in this one -- or at least keep it close.

Hemby has started every game for the Terps this season and should serve as the lead back again on Saturday. His pass-catching upside in DraftKings' PPR format only add to what should be a solid rushing floor.

Kendre Miller, RB (TCU)
DraftKings Price: $5,200

This week's matchup between Oklahoma and TCU features one of the highest projected totals on the slate at 67.5. TCU's lead back, Kendre Miller has averaged 17.4 points per game on DraftKings in his first three games, and now gets an Oklahoma defense that's allowing 157.5 rushing yards per game and ranks 21st on the slate in success rate against the run (43.31%).

Miller has rushed for 37-247-3 on the season and is averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Last week against SMU, Miller went for 16-139-1 in a game that totaled 76 points on the weekend and ended with a TCU win.

Kendre Miller 2022 Stats

Through the first two weeks, Miller saw a rather light workload in games where TCU outscored their opponents 97-30. In last week's game against SMU he led the backfield in carries, with backup Emari Demarcado going for 6-64-2.

The two lost touchdowns to Demarcado ruined what could've been a bigger day for Miller, but one of those touchdowns game on a 63-yard run. 

Miller feels like a safe bet to lead TCU against the Sooners this weekend, as he looks for his fourth-straight game with a rushing touchdown.

Jahmal Banks, WR (Wake Forest)
DraftKings: $3,000

Either one of two things is going on here.

  1. The price setters at DraftKings completely missed what Jahmal Banks did last week.
  2. We are all about to be duped into playing Jahmal Banks vs. Florida State.

 

As previously mentioned, Banks totaled 35.1 points on DraftKings last week against Clemson, going for 6-141-2 on the day. His price then was $3,900.

Now, the fine folks at DraftKings have dropped Banks' price to $3,000.

Banks could be one of the chalkiest plays on the weekend after last week's performance. His price is begging for people to draft him. I'm inclined to do the same. Wake Forest is throwing at a 53.7% rate and boasts one of the most explosive passing offenses in the nation.

In addition to that, Florida State has struggled against the pass, allowing a 41.7% success rate through the air to opposing offenses.

If you'd like to pivot off Banks but don't want to pay up for A.T. Perry ($7,200) slot receiver Taylor Morin (16-156-2) at $4,900 could get the job done for you.

Johnny Wilson, WR (Florida State)
DraftKings Price: $5,500

In Week 3 against Louisville, Johnny Wilson erupted for seven catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns. The 6-foot-7, 235-pound receiver has gone for 13-272-2 on the season and is averaging an impressive 20.9 YPR.

The Arizona State transfer is already posting career numbers and leads the Seminoles in every major receiving category.

Johnny Wilson 2022 Stats

Knowing how FSU's Week 5 game against Wake Forest could go, Wilson feels like a good way to correlate the two teams in a game that has an over/under of 66. Florida State has rushed at a 53.5% rate this season but may not have any choice other than to air it out if they hope to keep pace with Wake Forest.

If you think this game could turn into a pass-heavy shootout, getting in on Florida State's receivers could be advantageous in a number of ways. Slot receiver Mycah Pittman is the highest-priced FSU receiver on the slate ($7,200), while Ontaria Wilson, who is second on the team in targets and in receiving (12-225-2) is priced at a mere $4,100.

Zachary Krueger

Zachary Krueger is a college football fantasy/DFS analyst for NBC Sports EDGE, and hosts his own live stream “Roster Locked: A Best Ball Show” in the offseason. He will proudly tell anyone that he was the first to believe in Darren Waller’s elite upside as a tight end - and has the article to prove it.