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We were so close to cashing both prop bets last weekend. My beloved Newcastle ran out 2-0 winners to cash my win either half +145 play.
Tottenham handled business in the first half via Harry Kane, who converted a penalty deep into stoppage time. In the second half, Spurs could not turn their eight shots and 0.85 xG per FotMob.com into a goal, sinking my goals in both halves -106 play.
That takes my prop record to 8-7, and I'm back with two prop bets for this weekend's final round of Premier League (PL) action. All stats are taken from FBREF.com, and odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
Liverpool vs. Wolves (Sunday, 11 AM EST, Live on USA)
Liverpool goes into the final day of the season with the PL title race out of their hands. All they can do is win and hope Aston Villa doesn't lose to Manchester City to complete a domestic treble and give themselves a chance of winning a historic quadruple.
Andrew Robertson, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Thiago Alcántara, Naby Keita, Sadio Mané, and Luis Díaz are all set to return to the starting lineup after being rested for Tuesday's 1-2 win over Southampton. It's very unlikely Mohamed Salah, Virgil Van Dijk, Fabinho, and Joe Gomez will be risked ahead of next weekend's UCL final against Real Madrid in Paris.
Liverpool remains unbeaten at Anfield this season (14W-4D) and have kept 12 clean sheets. A backline of Robertson, Ibrahima Konate, Joel Matip, and Alexander-Arnold should be good enough for number 13 against a Wolves side who have nothing left to play for and been poor in the final weeks of the season (2D-4L), failing to score in three of their last six matches.
A lot of that is due to Bruno Lage's ultra-defensive system, which has limited the frontline's production in the final third. They sit second lowest in the league's xG table with 34.8 and fourth lowest for goals scored, managing 37.
Back Liverpool to do their part with a win and shut out.
Betting Tip: Liverpool Win To Nil -130
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Norwich City vs. Tottenham (Sunday, 11 AM EST, Live on Peacock)
Tottenham's superior 15+ goal difference and two-point advantage over Arsenal means they just need to avoid defeat against the league's worst side Norwich City to qualify for next season's UEFA Champions League (UCL). The Canaries have been propping up the PL table for most of the season, scoring the least amount of goals (23) and conceding the most (79).
Spurs come into this match in good form in their last five games (3W-2D), scoring eight from 8.4 xG, conceding two goals from 3.5 xGA, and keeping three clean sheets. They've also been solid on the road picking up eight points (2W-2D-1L) in their last five, scoring nine from 6.5 xG, conceding four from 5.4 xGA, and managing three clean sheets.
Looking at the markets, Tottenham To Win To Nil looks the best value at +108. Norwich have failed to score in four of their last five PL matches, and a Spurs defense without Christian Romero is still good enough to keep Teemu Pukki under wraps.
Betting Tip: Tottenham Win To Nil +108
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