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Odds and Ends

Reds vs. Brewers: Best Bets, Odds

by Corey Parson
Updated On: August 24, 2021, 1:46 pm ET

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The Cincinnati Reds have a one-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Tonight, they start a three-game series with the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, who are currently 4.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants for the best record in the National League. 

Cincinnati Reds (+175) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-221) Total: 7.5 

Both the Reds and Brewers enter tonight's contest playing good baseball; the Brewers are 7-3 on the Moneyline in their last 10 games while the Reds are winners of four straight and 7 of their last 10. These division rivals are 8-8 against each other this season and the last time these teams met up, the Brewers swept the Reds in Cincinnati to begin the second half of the season. 

When the MLB season began, PointsBet had the Milwaukee Brewers at +3000 to win the NL pennant. As of right now, the Brewers are +300 to win the National League; only the Los Angeles Dodgers have shorter odds to win the NL. Tonight, the Brewers will have Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burnes has the second-best ERA in the majors at 2.13, and he has not recorded a loss since May 25th. In his last three outings, Burnes has allowed a single earned run while striking out 23 batters.

The last time Burnes faced the Reds, he pitched 8.1 innings of shutout ball and struck out 12. Burnes has essentially been unhittable for two months. As such, on June 29th, PointsBet had Burnes at +1400 to win NL Cy Young. Now? He's at +200. 

 

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Although the Cincinnati Reds will have their hands full tonight, they are up for the challenge as Cincinnati is coming off a four-game sweep of the Miami Marlins. In the second half of the season, the Reds are 21-15 on the Moneyline and 20-16 ATS. In road games since the break, the Reds are 11-3 ATS. Tonight's starter, Tyler Mahle, is 10-4 on the season with the Reds going 16-9 on the Moneyline in gamess in which he starts.

Mahle has been very good, but not great for the Reds. In his last outing, Mahle gave up five earned runs in five innings vs. the Chicago Cubs. In three starts against the Brewers this season, Mahle has given up nine earned runs in 17 innings with an ERA over four. The Reds are 1-3 on the Moneyline in those games. 

I'm not going to lay the -221 on the Brewers tonight, but I will grab the plus money on the Run Line. 

EDGE: Brewers -1.5 (+105)

Corey Parson

Corey Parson is an award-winning, multi-sport fantasy and sports betting expert who has worked for SiriusXM, The Athletic, Sports Illustrated and more. He is from Harlem, NY, yet is somehow a Dallas Cowboys fan. You can follow him on Twitter @thefantasyexec.