Welcome to the Sunday (and Saturday) Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let's go.
Davante Adams OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Adams looks to have a prop that is being artificially deflated by a difficult matchup with CB Jalen Ramsey. The battle will be hard-fought on both sides but this level of discount on Adams is too good to pass up. Adams has started and finished 13 games this year. In those contests, he has averaged 102.9 yards per game. That number jumps to 111.8 in Packers wins and Green Bay will enter the Divisional Round as touchdown favorites over the Rams.
Jamaal Williams OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Williams has played in 12 games with Aaron Jones active this year. Williams has dropped seven carries for 29.4 yards in those games. Second-round rookie AJ Dillon saw 21 carries in Week 16 and immediately returned to the bench in the Packers’ final regular season match. He played on five offensive snaps and rushed one time. Williams logged 12 snaps and five times as many carries.
Baltimore Ravens to Throw Most Interceptions (+210)
The "most" here simply refers to most interceptions within the Baltimore/Buffalo game with ties counted as losses for the bet. Both defenses in this game are graded as top-10 coverage units according to Pro Football Focus. The difference is that Lamar Jackson has struggled versus top-10 defenses while Josh Allen looks even better against elite secondaries. Jackson has averaged one interception on 25.4 attempts per game versus five top coverage teams despite his team still pulling out wins in most of those games. Allen is at .5 picks on 37.8 attempts. With Jackson’s pass attempts likely to rise because of negative game-script, this bet should be far closer to even odds.
Devin Singletary OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Singeltary has played three games without Zack Moss this year. He posted 14 carries for 50.7 yards in those weeks and that sample includes a blowout loss to the Titans. His backups averaged 3.3 carries per game in that span. Singletary is going to be a workhorse back on a team that is favored at home this week. This line doesn’t reflect that.
Alvin Kamara OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Bucs have one of the best run defenses in the league so it shouldn't come as a surprise that Kamara’s prop is low. However, 61.5 yards on the ground is more than beatable for the league’s most elusive back. The most encouraging sign that Kamara will succeed as a runner this week is his split of the Saints backfield in the Wild Card round. He saw 23 carries while Latavius Murray was given just four rush attempts. The Saints are favored by a field goal and playing at home. The Bucs defense is good but Kamara is simply better.
Last Week: 2-2, -.3 units
Season: 21-12, +9.2 units