Odds and Ends

Sunday Prop Shop: Wild Card Weekend

by Kyle Dvorchak
Updated On: January 8, 2021, 9:58 pm ET

Welcome to the Sunday (and Saturday) Prop Shop. 

Every weekend, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let's go.

Ronald Jones OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

Jones has averaged 11.8 receiving yards per game which is already enough to make this a very slight edge at even odds. Beyond that, he led the Bucs backfield in routes run in Week 17. He also ran the most running back routes on his team in Week 14 before he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. This line could become even more interesting if Leonard Fournette is scratched with inactives. He was being scratched before Jones was absent from the team and that could be Bruce Arians' route for the playoffs.

Nick Chubb OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Chubb has played in eight games since returning from injured reserve in Week 10. Dating back to that game, he has averaged 16.6 rush attempts for 91.5 yards per game. He has been held under this line twice. His team is a solid underdog this week but they're a dog to a team that is worse against the run than the pass. The Steelers are allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game but just the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game this year. Chubb should have his projection downgraded in this spot but 65.5 yards is an overcorrection. 

Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 291.5 Pasing Yards (-115)

Vega has the Steelers winning their rematch with Cleveland handily but that doesn't bode particularly well for Roethlisberger's odds of beating this line. He has played in nine games that finished with a spread of six or more points. After removing his losses, Roethlisberger has averaged 244.5 passing yards per game. Roethlisberger has cleared this prop once in six wins of six or more points. In wins that his opponent comes closer than six points, he has posted 279 yards per game.

Jonathan Taylor OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Although Taylor may not be the primary receiving-back on his team, his efficiency as a pass-catcher has been impressive this year. As a rookie, he has posted 8.3 yards per reception, 1.57 yards per route run, and an 87.8 percent catch rate. All three of those marks are top-10 among running backs. Taylor posted his two highest snap share games in his final three weeks of the regular season. In an expanding role, this line looks low for a sneaky-good receiver out of the backfield. 

Lamar Jackson OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Jackson and the entire Baltimore offense started sputtering in the middle of the season. His throws were off and he was dealing with a minor knee injury. The injury seemed to bring his rushing role down a notch and those games are likely keeping his line down. Jackson got a week off while on the reserve/COVID-19 list in Week 12. Since his return, he has averaged 11.2 carries for 86 yards. In a game that Vegas expects to be close, expect Jackson to keep rolling on the ground. 

Last Week: 2-3, -.1 units

Season: 19-10, +9.5 units