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Nick Kyrgios
Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
Odds and Ends

Tennis Best Bets for June 11

by Kenny Ducey
Updated On: June 10, 2022, 4:35 pm ET

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We've ditched the dirt and are on to grass season on the ATP and WTA tours. There are two small events happening right now in Europe that I'm seeing a ton of value in, and without further ado I'll get into them now.

Oscar Otte (+230) vs. Matteo Berrettini (-304)

I understand that Berrettini is the Grass God. In fact, I've been championing the Italian for about a week, hyping folks up for his big return to the court on the surface he's so incredibly dominant on.

Doesn't Otte warrant a little more respect here, though? After all, Berrettini has dropped his level for chunks of his first two matches here at Stuttgart, losing a set to Radu Albot and then Lorenzo Sonego. I give Otte, a dangerous server on a quick court in his home country, a very god chance to get a set here.

I do prefer grabbing the 3.5 games here though with Otte. He is serving well enough — and Berrettini's struggling enough on the return — to at least push this match to one tiebreak. With that, I see a world where Otte loses in two but still managed to cash the game spread. Given the Otte serve and the Berrettini return, too, if the German manages to pick up a set he should cash this without issue.

Otte has taken a set off of Berrettini both times they've met, and if not for a tough fall and an injury at the US Open last year he could easily have won that match — or pushed it five sets.

Edge: Otte +3.5 Games

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Nick Kyrgios (-136) vs. Andy Murray (+110)

It's funny, because Kyrgios has seemed not to care too much here in Stuttgart. It might be the goofy backwards hat he's sporting, or the influx of fancy tweeners, but the Aussie has been incredibly loose on the court and hasn't been super in many return games at all.

Yet Kyrgios has been a holding machine on these fast grass courts, and when it comes down to business time in a tiebreak, Kyrgios has been impossible to stop. Kyrgios has won two of the three breakers he's played this week and he's yet to be broken. In fact, he's only faced three break points in two and a half matches.

Murray is going to have a whale of a time getting into Kyrgios' service games, and I suspect Kyrgios finds the quality required to take this match against an opponent that may be a bit fatigued by this point in the tournament. Kyrgios just defeated Murray on grass at Queen's Club in 2018 in what was their most recent meeting. Murray's worse at this point, and Kyrgios may be a little more potent given what we've seen in the few tournaments he's played this year.

There's something to be said for the level Kyrgios has consistently brought every time we've seen him in 2022 as he hunts valuable ranking points to stick around on tour. He's been an incredibly hard man to beat and I think he's the value here.

Edge: Kyrgios -136

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Kenny Ducey

Kenny Ducey is a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, writing and editing for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. His work also appears at DraftKings and The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter @KennyDucey.