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Odds and Ends

Tennis Best Bets for June 16

by Kenny Ducey
Updated On: June 15, 2022, 4:15 pm ET

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We've ditched the dirt and are on to grass season on the ATP and WTA tours. There are two small events happening right now in Europe that I'm seeing a ton of value in, and without further ado I'll get into them now.

Tommy Paul (-125) vs Stan Wawrinka (+102)

The surprise of the week so far has been Wawrinka, who managed to win his first grass-court match since 2019 with a massive three-set win over Frances Tiafoe. While the result looks pretty good on paper, though, it wasn't exactly a pretty one from Wawrinka.

The grizzled veteran was missing backhands left and right and donating a huge amount of errors to Tiafoe. Even still, the American let nerves get to him and inexplicably dropped serve from 30-0 as he was serving out the match in the third. The momentum swing there was ultimately too much for Tiafoe to overcome.

Tommy Paul looked phenomenal coming through a three-set match against Denis Shapovalov, who is very dangerous on grass. This is a very similar matchup with a big all-or-nothing player, and with the way Wawrinka looked on Tuesday I can't believe we can fade him at this price.

Edge: Paul -125

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Ryan Peniston (-159) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (+130)

Cerundolo has played just four career matches on grass, three of which were in Wimbledon qualifying last season where he ultimately was knocked out in the third round. He won one match here in London to improve to 3-1, but that was against clay specialist Pedro Martinez.

When you look at the 4-1 record, it doesn't do a lot to inspire confidence. Cerundolo has beaten Martinez, Felipe Rodriguez Alves and Roberto Marcora. The three of those guys all so happen to be clay-court players, with Rodriguez Alves having played just one match on grass and Marcora five in 14 years.

So, I'm not really ready to say Cerundolo, a clay-court specialist himself, is ready to step up to one of the hottest grass-court players around right now in Ryan Peniston, who will be playing on home soil. The lefty has had two straight positive results at the Challenger level on grass and is ready for another big run this week at the ATP level. 

Edge: Peniston -159

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Kenny Ducey

Kenny Ducey is a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, writing and editing for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. His work also appears at DraftKings and The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter @KennyDucey.