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We've ditched the dirt and are on to grass season on the ATP and WTA tours. There are two small events happening right now in Europe that I'm seeing a ton of value in, and without further ado I'll get into them now.
Daniil Medvedev (-345) vs. Roberto Bautista Agut (+260)
I'm perplexed by this line, considering when these two men met last week Halle the line was a little bit tighter. There, Roberto Bautista Agut fell in two straightforward sets, though the match was a lot closer than the scoreline would indicate.
Bautista Agut, who is a world-class grass player, brought up nine break points but was unable to convert a single one against the World No. 1. It was a masterclass in serving from the Russian, but here on grass courts which are a bit slower things could get tricky.
Bautista Agut was 3-0 against Medvedev before they met in Halle, and while all those matches were set on hardcourts, that is more than enough of a sample for me to feel great about backing the World No. 20 here. Both men are just as good on grass as they are on a hardcourt, meaning this line should be tighter.
Edge: Bautista Agut +1.5 Sets (+110)
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Alexander Bublik (-110) vs. Taylor Fritz (-110)
Fritz has never beaten Bublik in three tries, but he's taken a set in two of the three meetings. In the other, he lost 6-4, 7-6. These have been very tight affairs, the point is, and in a match which Bublik has every reason to give less than 100% in, I think Fritz can thrive.
Bublik really should have lost to Frances Tiafoe with the way the second set of their match was going, and then he got to play a pushover in John Millman. Here, the World No. 39 will need to deal with a hungry Fritz who is desperate for some positive momentum heading into Wimbledon.
Fritz has won a grass-court title before and is a great player on this surface with his lethal serve-forehand combination. I expect a great match out of him, and a win.
Edge: Fritz -110