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The final Masters 1000 event of the year takes place in Paris, and there is so much to love about this field. I've got two plays for the night session on Thursday.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-600) vs. Corentin Moutet (+400)
Corentin Moutet has had a splendid season. After he fell into a rut during the middle of the year and saw his ranking fall so low that he needed to return to the Challenger circuit, he's reeled off a whole host of wins to get back inside the top 60 in the world and improve his record across all levels to 40-20.
Moutet has always loved playing in France, particularly this tournament. It was here, as a babyfaced youngster, that Moutet nearly took the first set off of Novak Djokovic a few ago and lost a tight match 7-6, 6-4. He has picked up two quality wins so far at this year's running of the event, taking down some giants in Borna Coric and Cam Norrie.
Moutet is looking rock solid right now, giving hardly anything to his opponent. With his form and this delirious crowd behind him, I think he can give Stefanos Tsitsipas a math at the very least. The Greek has just a 54.3% winning percentage against lefties and has gone 3-3 against lefties in the last calendar year. Moutet gets enough balls back to really frustrate Tsitsipas and he could crack. Moutet beat Tsitsipas years back in the Challenger circuit, so his confidence level should be high.
Edge: Moutet +4.5 Games
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Pablo Carreno Busta (-155) vs. Tommy Paul (+125)
This one is tough, because both men are playing some super tennis at the moment and these two have never met before. What I will say is that Denis Shapovalov really had Carreno Busta on the ropes on Wednesday and played a sloppy match to hand the Spaniard a couple of key breaks. Tommy Paul simply won't do that.
Paul's ability to hang in rallies and run for days with Carreno Busta should throw the Spaniard for a loop and present a different kind of challenge than the one he faced on Wednesday. Paul's imaginative game should really shine through here against a player that simply plays the percentages, and I think he should have a leg up at the net.
Paul was incredibly impressive in his defeat of Rafael Nadal on Wednesday, earning every bit of that victory and winning some marathon rallies. Carreno Busta is a watered down version of Nadal at best, and I think the American should be able to handle him well enough.
Edge: Paul +125