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Odds and Ends

TNF Prop, Bets: Fournette, Bucs vs Eagles, Hurts, Godwin, Fournette

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: October 13, 2021, 9:50 am ET

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Chris Godwin Touchdown vs. Eagles

Anytime a player visits his hometown, you know what's on their mind!

Chris Godwin will try his hardest to find the end zone on Thursday Night Football as he grew up in Philly.

The former Penn State receiver has failed to score in three straight games after finding the end zone in the first two of the season.

This TNF matchup seems like a pretty good game to score, huh? NBC's model expects a big game, and they don't even factor in where players are from. 

Godwin is projected to lead the game in receiving yards (76.0) and receptions (5.6), hitting the Over on his 63.5 receiving prop.

TB PHI WRs

 

Godwin has only played in three Thursday Night Football games. 

His first was during his rookie season, so that doesn't carry any weight. However, in the last two (2019 and 2021), Godwin has scored in both and crushed his receiving prop, per statmuse. That includes this year's meeting with Dallas.

Godwin on TNF

 

On the year, Godwin has recorded 64 or more yards in three of five games (60%), 62 or more in four (80%) and 55 or more in all five, per NBC's hit rate charts. He also hit 64-plus yards in eight of his last 11 on the road (73%).

Godwin hit rates

 

Philadelphia has allowed numerous opposing No. 1 or 2 receivers to post above-average or stellar numbers.

Tyreek Hill (11 rec, 186 yards, 3 TDs), CeeDee Lamb (3 rec, 66 yards), Deebo Samuel (6, 93 yards), D.J. Moore (5 rec, 42 yards) and Calvin Ridley (5 rec, 51 yards) are the five worth mentioning.

Godwin leads the NFL with 10 red-zone targets and ranks third in the NFL with 163 yards after the catch. Tom Brady has 43 red-zone pass attempts, the most in the NFL and leads pretty much every other major throwing category.

The Eagles are tied seventh with 10 passing touchdowns allowed in five games, plus Brady is coming off a five passing touchdown performance against the Dolphins. 

 Back Godwin to have a big Thursday in his hometown. 

I grabbed his touchdown prop at +140 odds and would play this down to +100.

I bought his Over 63.5 receiving yards at -115 odds. I would play that up to 69.5 yards for a 0.5 unit and 64.5 for 1u.

Pick: Chris Godwin Touchdown (1.5u), Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (1u)

 

Jalen Hurts O/U 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Buccaneers

Depending on where you are shopping, you can get this anywhere from -135 to -180 odds. Pretty crazy.

In three out of five games this season, Jalen Hurts has passed for two or more touchdowns (60%).

Tampa Bay has allowed every single quarterback to hit two or more passing touchdowns this season.

Jalen Hurts TD passes

 

The Buccaneers permitted Dak Prescott (3), Matt Ryan (2), Matthew Stafford (4), Mac Jones (2) and Jacoby Brissett (2) to hit two or more touchdown passes this year. That is 13 touchdown passes permitted in five games, the third-most, only trailing Indianapolis (15) and Washington (14). 

Tampa is dealing with tons of turnover on the defensive end side with injuries lately and it has shown. The Bucs are expected to be without Lavonte David, Carlton Davis, and Sean Murphy-Bunting -- Antoine Winfield Jr. is questionable.

That will open the door for Philadelphia, Hurts, and this young receiver core to take shots and continue this run opposing quarterbacks have had against Tampa. 

The secondary is the Achilles heel of the Bucs and near the red zone, Hurts can take advantage with his 69.2 red-zone completion percentage (8th). 

I grabbed this at -135 odds and would play it to -140 for 1.5u. Anything after that is 1 unit.

Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing TDs (1.5u)

 

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Leonard Fournette O/U 25.5 Receiving Yards vs. Eagles

Leonard Fournette has been eating over the last two weeks with 138 and 110 total yards in back-to-back games.

I expect him to continue seeing the same amount of snaps, if not more on Thursday Night Football. 

Even with Giovani Bernard back and playing limited snaps, Fournette should remain a viable threat. Bernard was out for the Bucs versus Patriots showdown with an MCL injury but played last week against the Dolphins.

Bernard recorded two receptions for 14 yards and a touchdown, plus four carries for 21 yards.

Bernard received 22.97% of the snaps in Week 5 compared to Ronald Jones' 13.51%. Fournette played 62.1%, his second-highest snap total of the year behind last week's 82.05% versus New England. 

It appears Jones is falling out of the rotation, but with this being a short week, I expect Bernard to be limited in this matchup as well to avoid further damage to his knee.

Fournette ran 23 routes each game over the past two weeks, tying a season-high and marking the third time he has done that. He has 24 targets in five games at least three receptions in all five, totaling 19 receptions for a 79.2% catch rate.

He has hit the Over 25.5 receiving yards four out of five times (80%) this season and recorded 24 or more in all five, per NBC's player prop model.

lenny fournette

 

Here is how the Eagles have fared versus opposing running backs. Four out of five starting running back has totaled at least 21 receiving yards against Philadelphia with Hubbard hitting the Over in the latest game.

 

Chuba Hubbard: 5 receptions, 6 targets, 33 Receiving Yards

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 2 Receptions, 3 Targets, 12 Receiving Yards

Ezekiel Elliot: 3 Receptions, 3 Targets, 21 Receiving Yards

JaMycal Hasty: 4 Receptions, 5 Targets, 21 Receiving Yards

Mike Davis: 3 Receptions, 6 Targets, 23 Receiving Yards

 

While the game script may not be as tempting to bet on Fournette's receiving yards, the Bucs' secondary and injuries ahead of TNF leaves Tampa Bay vulnerable on a short week.

We could get a more competitive game than most think as over 84% of the money is on the Bucs already. Either way, Fournette is going to get his targets and he could hit this on two to three receptions.

He averages a hair under 4.0 receptions per game and caught three or more passes in all five.

I would play this to 27.5 receiving yards for 1 unit. Anything after that -- pivot to his Over 3.5 receptions or touchdown.

Pick: Leonard Fournette Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (1u)

 

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Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and former contributor for numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.