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Mackenzie Dern
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Odds and Ends

UFC Vegas 39 Will be Packed with Finishes

by Steven Ricciardi
Updated On: October 9, 2021, 9:44 am ET

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My UFC betting package this week includes three plus money bets. This card is in Las Vegas at the UFC APEX, back at the small cage. Follow me on Twitter to get any plays I may tweet out on Saturday, fight news and my takes on the card. You can find me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC and please also follow Ike Feldman @IkeFeldman, my Combat Sports partner for NBC Sports Edge Betting @NBCSportsBet.

Three Fighter Parlay: Alexander Romanov/Randy Brown/Sabina Mazo (+156)

I placed this bet on Pointsbet with the parlay booster for +174 odds.

Alexander Romanov averages 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. His opponent Jared Vanderaa was taken down three times by Serghei Spivac and finished in round two. Romanov will get this fight to the ground and work his opponent. He should finish Vanderaa in this spot. You can add Romanov/Under 2.5 rounds to a three-leg parlay with Brown and Mazo for a +247 payoff.

Randy Brown owns a three-inch height advantage and a one-inch reach advantage against Jared Gooden. Brown is better everywhere this fight goes and just needs to stay away from Gooden’s power punching ability. Randy Brown should implement a well-rounded attack highlighted by distance striking and mixing-in the takedown to obtain top control.

Sabina Mazo is a better striker than Mariya Agapova. She can stay on the outside of the octagon and strike when Agapova closes distance wildly.

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Main Card Prop: Sabina Mazo/Mariya Agopova Will the Fight Go the Distance- NO (+140)

Sabina Mazo/Under 2.5 rounds is lined at +330, and that’s what I expect to happen here. I’m playing it safe by betting this fight to finish. The early pace will be set by Mariya Agopova. In Agopova’s previous fights, she comes out firing and looking for takedowns. I don’t expect that game plan to change, so we have a real possibility of an Agopova finish early in this fight to cash this bet. Her opponent Sabina Mazo is well-trained coming out of Kings MMA, and she knows what to expect from Agopova. Mazo is going to weather the storm early and fight from the outside ring of the octagon. She can time a punch or kick with Agopova closing that distance and finish the fight herself. Agopova is going to look for takedowns, so Mazo should use her proximity to the cage to help her stay on her feet and keep the fight standing. Mazo should be able to pepper her with strikes in rounds two and three as long as she can keep this fight standing. Agopova gassed so bad against Shana Dobson in her last fight which leads me to the conclusion Mazo will be hitting a gassed target after the halfway mark of this fight and should finish Agopova with strikes.

Main Event Prop: Fighter/Total Rounds Double- Mackenzie Dern/Under 2.5 Rounds (+142)

I expect this fight to hit the ground within the first two minutes of round one or two. Mackenzie Dern is not going to win a five-round standup fight vs. Marina Rodriguez. Marina Rodriguez has been taken down 10 times in her last four fights. Mackenzie Dern is not a great wrestler, but she finds her way to the ground in her fights. Dern’s path to victory is to get Marina down and work her over on the ground transitioning from submission attempt to submission attempt. Dern is a multiple-time BJJ world champion. She is capable of transitioning from armbar to omoplata and to triangle at will; and she can slap on a rear-naked choke if her opponent gives up her back. Dern has good shoulder pressure from top control and keeps position as she advances position on the ground. Dern by submission in rounds one or two is the most likely outcome.

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Steven Ricciardi

Steven Ricciardi is a Combat Sports betting analyst for NBC Sports EDGE. He started Jersey Boys Sports Media to cover MMA events such as the UFC, PFL and Ring of Combat. His podcast started in 2018 which covers UFC betting and MMA DFS. You can follow Steven Ricciardi on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC