Loading scores...
Odds and Ends

What's Wright: Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday, November 2

by Johnathan Wright
Updated On: November 2, 2021, 2:12 pm ET

The App is Back! Don't forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!

The NBA continues tonight with a smaller five-game slate, but there are still loads of value in the player prop markets. 

Team's offensive ratings are down across the league. In the 2020-21 NBA season, the average offensive efficiency was 112.3 points. However, as we begin week three of the 2021-22 season, the average offensive efficiency is 106.2. It is still early, but given the new way of officiating and the parity we have seen to start the season, this is a trend you will want to keep in mind.  

With that said, let's jump into my favorite NBA prop bets for Tuesday's slate. All odds are from PointsBet and are reflective at the time of writing. 

Best Bet #1 - De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assist (+115)

We hit this same prop value for De'Aaron Fox early in the year at -150, so the fact that we are getting this number at plus odds is too good to pass up. That said, PointsBet is giving us this much value today because the Sacramento Kings will play the Utah Jazz, who allow the fewest assists in the league, giving up just 17.5 a game. 

That number is so low for the Jazz because of Rudy Gobert's paint dominance. However, this should not impact Fox as much as the majority of players he earns his assist from are perimeter players. For instance, the top-scoring leaders on the Kings, besides Fox, are Harrison Barnes (first on the team), averaging 23.3 points per game, and Buddy Hield (second on the team) at 17.5. Barnes takes 60% of his shot attempts outside of four feet from the basket, while Hield takes 85% from midrange or beyond, according to cleaningtheglass.com.

Fox is averaging 6.3 assists this season and has a career average of 5.7 against the Jazz. Moreover, if you remove the 23-year-old's rookie season, his average assist goes up to 6.86 assists against the Jazz. 

Lastly, Fox has reached this prop value in seven of his last 10 regular-season games.

Editor's Note: NBC Sports Predictor: Play for FREE and win huge jackpots up to $100,000! Download the app today.

Best Bet #2 - Jalen Green Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-140)

As you would expect from a rookie in their first NBA season, Jalen Green's play has been inconsistent. However, it is clear that Stephen Silas and the rest of the Houston Rockets coaching staff believe the best developmental strategy for Green is to allow him to play through his mistakes. 

The 19 year old is averaging 31.8 minutes per game and has been given the green light to play the isolation style of basketball that we saw from him in high school and last season in the NBA G League. 

That said, Green is only shooting 28.6% from three to start the season and is shooting a team-high seven attempts from behind the arc per game. 

Additionally, the Los Angeles Lakers' defense led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis has not been as dominant as years past. The Lakers are in the bottom five of the league in points against per game, allowing teams to score an average of 112 points per game while shooting 45.3% from the field. Moreover, the Lakers allow teams to convert on 42.4% of their shots taken between 20-24 feet. 

Green has reached this prop value in just two of his six games this season, but given the volume in which he attempts three-pointers and the Laker's early defensive struggles, I like Green to reach this value after having a day off and not having to travel. 

Our NBC Sports Edge projection model predicts that the current Rookie of The Year favorite will have 2.1 made three's tonight.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

Johnathan Wright

Johnathan Wright is a betting content creator for NBC Sports EDGE. He is currently pursuing a master's degree in Sport Analytics and also writes for ClutchPoints and FanSided. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @JwrightOfficial.