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Odds and Ends

Who will score a touchdown in the Super Bowl?

by Kenny Ducey
Updated On: February 4, 2022, 5:12 pm ET

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Los Angeles Rams 49ers (-4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (48.5)

Props are a huge market all year as it pertains to football betting, but they're particularly big during the Super Bowl, which takes on a ton of action at sportsbooks. One of the props that is most popular is Anytime Touchdown, but it can often be a tricky market to gauge with so many options and so few scoring plays.

With that, I'd like to take a look at the best values to score in the big game next weekend.

Tee Higgins +175

Higgins is the first guy that caught my eye on the board. He's got the sixth-shortest odds on the board. It's true that he hasn't scored since Week 16, when he found the end zone twice against the Ravens, but he did lead the team in red zone targets during the regular season and is a staple on offense for Cincinnati right now.

I'll happily back the guy with 13 catches on 19 targets in the last two weeks, who has the built-in chemistry with Joe Burrow and a boatload of targets to show for when Cincinnati gets close to the end zone. This kind of price is simply wrong and this bet needs to be made. 

Van Jefferson +260

The Bengals' biggest weakness all year has been against the deep ball. They ranked 25th in deep passing DVOA during the season and 29th in explosive pass rate at 9.8%. While Odell Beckham, Jr. is always a threat for a big play, I think Jefferson is the guy who's in prime position to capitalize on this.

The wideout ranks first on the team in Average Targeted Air Yards with 13.6 per game, easily filling the void left by Josh Reynolds. In fact, the exciting young wideout ranked in the top 15 of all receivers in that metric during the regular season.

Jefferson has had six games with a touchdown this season, and while that is not a whole lot, you're looking at a guy who is still a very big part of this passing offense and a guy who is in a great spot with this matchup.

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Matthew Stafford +600

Stafford has rushed for a touchdown in three of his six playoff games and two of his last three. Of course, he couldn't find the end zone last week against the 49ers, but he still did run it five times to keep in line with his playoff average.

This bet is appropriately priced, but if you're going to take a longshot it's likely him. The quarterback sneak at the goal line has been a staple of Sean McVay's offense this year.

 

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Kenny Ducey

Kenny Ducey is a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, writing and editing for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. His work also appears at DraftKings and The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter @KennyDucey.