2021 NFL Draft process "Haul" rankings

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Today, we will rank all 32 "hauls" from the 2021 NFL Draft process -- a combination of prospects acquired in the draft and through UDFA. We will rank in two different metrics: Overall talent acquired, and Return on Investment (how much talent was acquired in relation to how much pick equity was spent).

Instead of using the traditional trade chart to gauge slot value, we’re going to use Michael Lopez’s “blended draft chart.” This chart values slots based on overall average pick performance and star likelihood at that slot. As far as predicting future performance, it’s the best we’ve got.

Below, I give edited and condensed final thoughts on each team’s draft class and UDFA crop. For my full thoughts on each, check out my AFC Draft grades, NFC draft grades, AFC UDFA rankings and NFC UDFA rankings. Below, I’ve also noted each team’s updated 2022 NFL Draft holdings as of today. A “c” next to a pick indicates a projected 2022 comp pick.

                       2021 NFL Draft/UDFA talent acquired

                                  2021 NFL Draft equity spent

                               ROI* (most talent at least cost)

*Note: A score of "1.0" denotes the team -- as scored by my rankings -- left the draft process with exactly as much talent as would have been expected out of their draft slots alone. It should be pointed out that teams with less draft equity have a lower degree of difficulty recouping equity in this metric. 

Arizona Cardinals | 2022 Draft Picks (9): 1 2 3 5 5c 6 7 7c 7c

Talent: 22 | Equity: 23 | ROI: 17

NFL Draft: Arizona targeted high-octane athletes at positions of need and still managed to get above-average slot value. Moore could be special if Kliff and crew can coax him from a screen-and-sprint/gadget guy into a receiver that can at least stress in the intermediate area. Wiggins was a superb flier in R7 that fit the class’ ethos. Class provides short-term help with long-term upside.

UDFA: The Cardinals and Patriots were the only teams that didn’t sign a UDFA ranked inside my top-400 overall. Angeline is a smooth receiver with an ideal frame, but he moves like it’s a senior citizen game. Burns is small and unathletic, Murray is a 294-pound fifth-year senior that was considered a run-stopper in college, and Labelle had 20 catches over four seasons at Cincinnati.

Still need: Cornerback, running back, tight end

Atlanta Falcons | 2022 Draft Picks (6): 1 2 3 4 5 6

Talent: 11 | Equity: 4 | ROI: 22

NFL Draft: Atlanta did the right thing standing pat to take TE Kyle Pitts, arguably the most physically-gifted tight end to ever enter the NFL. Taking a QB was tempting, but would have alienated franchise face Matt Ryan and put a shot clock on his time in Atlanta, which, as Green Bay is seeing with Aaron Rodgers, can split a locker room. Pitts brings a Randy Moss-like impact on the Falcons’ offense immediately. Richie Grant and Jalen Mayfield were solid values at positions of need. 

UDFA: Atlanta finished No. 1 in my metrics for most UDFA talent acquired. Atlanta was also able to directly address post-draft positional needs with draftable-grade UDFAs who can make the 2021 roster. RB Javian Hawkins is my pick to be this year’s James Robinson. Hawkins combined quicks, an okey-doke spin move and legit long-speed to pile up a catalogue of explosive runs over two years as a starter at Louisville. QB Feleipe Franks, a big dual-threat with a bazooka in the Cardale Jones vein, is an intriguing flier for a team that didn’t pick a quarterback and doesn’t have future plans at the position post-Matt Ryan.

Still need: Edge rusher, cornerback, quarterback

Baltimore Ravens | 2022 Draft Picks (9): 1 2 3 3c* 4 4 4c 4c 5^

Talent: 10 | Equity: 17 | ROI: 7

*BAL received 2022 R3 comp pick for HOU hiring ex-assistant HC/passing coordinator David Culley as HC

^This is KC's 2022 R5; BAL traded conditional 2022 R5 to MIN in Yannick Ngakoue deal; acquired 2022 R5/traded 2022 R6 in Orlando Brown Jr. trade with KC

^In Ngakoue trade, BAL dealt 2021 R3 to MIN but recouped a projected 2022 R4c for losing him as UFA

NFL Draft: Same old clockwork efficiency, bargain-shopping for steals the NFL passed along. Bateman, Oweh and Cleveland were all great values. Oweh is a great fit with Baltimore in particular. He’s a few Danielle Hunter-like tweaks away from turning into the man himself. Tylan Wallace was an awesome value in R4 and fits Lamar Jackson’s game well as a slippery deep-ball maven. Even Shaun Wade, a prospect I lampooned all process, was juice worth the squeeze on a position-change dice roll on athletic traits alone at 5.160.

UDFA: TCU S Ar'Darius Washington is like a discount rack Tyrann Mathieu. A ball of muscle that plays ticked-off like a pit bull, Washington is an undersized do-it-all playmaker. Oklahoma OT Adrian Ealy was one of only two top-300 OTs on my board that weren’t picked in the NFL Draft. And the Ravens, who traded Orlando Brown to the Chiefs right the draft to open a need at tackle, hadn’t been able to take one during draft weekend. Poljan has an ideal frame, but his game has a raw and awkward feel, with sporadic flashes of ball skills as a receiver.

Still need: Offensive line, tight end, safety

Buffalo Bills | 2022 Draft Picks (8): 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7*

Talent: 19 | Equity: 27 | ROI: 6

*Acquired ATL 2022 R7 via Lee Smith trade (March 2021)

NFL Draft: Buffalo hasn’t had a ton of draft equity in recent years, but they have a Ravens-like ethos of taking advantage of perceptual mistakes the NFL had made on certain prospects. Rousseau and Boogie Basham are both underrated edge rushers. Brown is such a tantalizing mystery box to purchase for the low-low price of 3.93. 

UDFA: USC CB Olaijah Griffin is a heady corner with good length who PFF graded No. 12 among FBS CBs in coverage grade last year. He’s got slick feet, and he can play the ball. But he’s stick-thin, gets pushed around, has an injury history, and ran a 4.53 forty with a 26th-percentile athletic composite. Bowling Green TE Quintin Morris is a former jumbo receiver who has the ball skills to hang, but he’s the size of a fullback with a receiver’s game.

Still need: Running back, cornerback, offensive line

Carolina Panthers | 2022 Draft Picks (7): 1 3 4* 5 6 7

Talent: 4 | Equity: 7 | ROI: 9

*CAR traded 2022 R2/R4 to NYJ in Sam Darnold trade

*CAR received 2022 LAR R4 in 2021 Draft trade with HOU (originally acquired by HOU in Cooks trade)

NFL Draft: I would have taken Patrick Surtain over Jaycee Horn, but I’m not going to criticize Carolina taking my No. 13 overall player at 1.8 too harshly. It’s the rest of the class that won me over. Reuniting Terrace Marshall Jr. with college passing-game coordinator Joe Brady was a stroke of genius. The NFL shied from Marshall due to reports of a leg issue and passed Carolina a huge bargain -- assuming the leg doesn't affect Marshall's career. The Panthers also scored enormous slot values with the selections of Christensen, Tremble and Nixon. Carolina additionally did well late, finding a couple potential long-term roster cogs in R6 with Brown and Smith. 

UDFA: Carolina left the draft with the offensive line still a need area, and thus did well to agree to terms with David Moore, who tied for No. 12 in the UDFA class with $125k in guarantees. He was discounted by the NFL because of a small-school background and a sawed-off frame. But Moore has long arms to negate length concerns, and he’s a strong athlete that plays ticked off. In unathletic tackle machine LB Paddy Fisher, Carolina could get 90% of Chiefs second-rounder Nick Bolton’s skillset. And UAB RB Spencer Brown -- "The Moose" -- could offer about 90% of 2020 Packers’ second-round pick AJ Dillon’s skillset.

Still need: Safety, linebacker, quarterback

Chicago Bears | 2022 Draft Picks (5): 2 3 5 6 7

Talent: 8 | Equity: 19 | ROI: 4

NFL Draft: The trade-up for Justin Fields was a franchise-altering decision. The Bears, directionless and hopeless in mid-April, are now back in business. It cost next year’s first-rounder (and fourth) plus a fifth-rounder this year, juice worth the squeeze from a long-term value perspective if Fields even plateaus as a league-average starter (and if I’m right about Fields, it will be highway robbery). Another genius move came in Round 2 when the Bears traded up to stop the free-fall of top-25 talent OT Teven Jenkins. Chicago apparently intends to give Jenkins a look on the blind side early.

UDFA: According to the draft media consensus grades, the Bears had the best draft in the NFL. Chicago's UDFA process wasn’t as inspiring, but the Bears may have found a keeper in Charles Snowden, a former basketball player who posted 15 sacks/30.5 TFL in college. Snowden has a built-in-a-lab frame and length for days. He’s a good athlete for his size, chewing up ground laterally with quick shuffles of those long legs, ala his days on the hardwood. Dark horse to keep an eye on: Houston Baptist LB Caleb Johnson, a strong athlete who averaged 12.2 tackles in four 2020 games, three of them against FBS teams (North Texas, Texas Tech and Louisiana Tech).

Still need: Wide receiver, cornerback, offensive line

Cincinnati Bengals | 2022 Draft Picks (8): 1 2 3 4 4c 5 6 7

Talent: 12 | Equity: 5 | ROI: 21

NFL Draft: Burrow and Chase formed one of the most devastating single-season quarterback-receiver tandems in CFB history during LSU’s run to the title in 2019. What a cool pick -- how much fun is this going to be? The Bengals clearly see Jackson Carman as an NFL OT. The reason for my lower ranking is that I don’t. But the good thing is that Carman’s going to be a mauling guard if tackle doesn’t work out. The rest of Cincy’s draft was a solid if unspectacular showing, with one particularly-interesting flier in R6 on Chris Evans, a former top recruit with a 98th-percentile athletic composite.

UDFA: Pooka Williams had 66 receptions for 534 yards and four scores in 26 games over three seasons for the Jayhawks. I don’t know if Pooka will ever be able to shake his bad habits behind the line of scrimmage to become a reliable platoon back. However, he makes for a fascinating receiving back/slot receiver hybrid proposition on a team run by Joe Burrow. Williams is a killer athlete in space, and he’s got very good hands. 

Still need: Offensive line, tight end, interior defensive line

Cleveland Browns | 2022 Draft Picks (8): 1 2 3 4 4* 5 6 7^

Talent: 9 | Equity: 20 | ROI: 3

*CLE acquired DET 2022 R4 via 2021 NFL Draft trade

^CLE has right to pick-swap 2022 R7s with DET for David Blough trade Aug 2019 

NFL Draft: I was lower than much of the industry on CB Greg Newsome -- and even I think the Browns got good value on him at 1.26. The real coup came on Friday night. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, a swiss-army knife of a defender with superstar upside and a low shot of busting due to his proven slot coverage chops alone, proved a bird too bright for the NFL brain trust to make heads or tails of. Schwartz and Hudson were solid value picks too -- on, respectively, legit world-class speed and moldable dancing bear tools. 

UDFA: Florida State iDL Marvin Wilson shockingly dropped out of the draft after a poor 2020 season that ended after six games with a season-ending injuru. Cleveland, in desperate need for interior players, gave Wilson the second-most guaranteed money in UDFA history. There are questions about how long Wilson's career will last. But as a UDFA, that doesn’t really matter anymore. Wilson’s game is based on power, counter moves and torque -- not raw athleticism. He’s going to make that team, and I think he cracks the rotation sooner rather than later. He’ll be a core special teamer until he does. Wilson blocked three kicks last year.

Still need: Defensive line, EDGE, receiver

Dallas Cowboys | 2022 Draft Picks (7): 1 2 3 4 4c 5 6

Talent: 12 | Equity: 6 | ROI: 19

NFL Draft: The Cowboys rebounded in R1 from getting sniped by Carolina and Denver for the class’ two-best corners by trading back two spots and taking LB Micah Parsons. Dallas began Friday reaching for talented problem child Kelvin Joseph and ended it with a bigger reach for Oregon CB Nahshon Wright, a skyscraper with 4.49 speed. Unfortunately, it’s the build-up variety (5th- and 26th-percentile splits with a 4th-percentile vertical), and he changes directions like the captain of the stuck Suez Canal tug. I saw Odighizuwa and Golston as fourth- and sixth-round talents, respectively, two more picks that felt like in-the-moment reaches based on position-need tunnel vision.

UDFA: Smith, a primo athlete who was inconsistent on the field at Iowa, got top-10 reported guaranteed money in the UDFA class. The Cowboys also grabbed three defenders I had draftable grades on. Oregon’s Austin Faoliu seemed to suffer from the NFL panning the overall interior class. The Cowboys gave LB Anthony Hines $55,000 guaranteed, a smart low-cost move on an athletic linebacker the NFL had limited exposure on. Dallas signed S Tyler Coyle with the idea of making him a LB/S hybrid player in Dan Quinn’s defense. If anybody knows how to make use of prospects like this, it’s the architect of the “Legion of Boom" defense.

Still need: Free safety, tight end, offensive line

Denver Broncos | 2022 Draft Picks (7): 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Talent: 2 | Equity: 10 | ROI: 5

NFL Draft: What a weekend for first-year GM George Paton. With his first two picks, he got my CB1 Patrick Surtain and RB1 Javonte Williams. Then he took advantage of the NFL’s hesitancy on iOL Quinn Meinerz’s small-school profile to steal him in R3. The steals kept coming. If Owusu-Koramoa isn’t the steal of the draft, Jamar Johnson just might be. Night-stalking, ballhawking goblin just beginning to flower that the NFL discounted for limited exposure (less than 10 career starts) and tackling inefficiency. 

UDFA: The Broncos most aggressively pursued Iowa TE Shaun Beyer on Saturday night post-Day 3. That was telling of Patton’s read of the TE room. Behind Beyer’s former college teammate Noah Fant, question marks. Beyer proved to be a strong athlete at 6’5/250 with a size-adjusted 7.73 RAS athletic composite, boasting above 60th-percentile explosion (jumps) and above 80th-percentile agility (3-cone/shuttle). 

Still need: Quarterback, offensive line, defensive line

Detroit Lions | 2022 Draft Picks (11): 1 1* 2 3 3c 4 5 5c 6 6c 7^ 7&

Talent: 6 | Equity: 8 | ROI: 10

*DET acquired LAR 2022 R1 in Matthew Stafford trade

^CLE has right to pick-swap 2022 R7s with DET for David Blough trade (August 2019)

&DET acquired conditional 2022 NE R7 in exchange for CB Michael Jackson (August 2020)

NFL Draft: Lions GM Brad Holmes took advantage of good fortune and a thrift-shopper’s eye for value throughout in landing the most impressive Lions' draft haul in years. Six of Detroit's seven selections were ranked higher on my board than the slot Detroit picked them in. This is what the draft is all about: Coming out with more talent than should have been possible in your slots. Penei Sewell is the best offensive linemen I've evaluated in five years doing this. What a pick to start things off for Holmes at 1.7. From there, he used his weak roster to his advantage -- he let the board come to him and didn't reach for a particular position of need over another.

UDFA: Detroit signed a league-high four prospects I had draftable grades on, including the No. 3 and 7 available WR Jonathan Adams and Sage Surratt, and No. 5 and 6 available iOL Tommy Kraemer and Drake Jackson. Another sign of intelligent design from an organization that’s been devoid of it for far too long. The Lions acquired Adams, Surratt and Amon-Ra St. Brown -- a third- and two sixth-round values on my board -- for the price of 4.112 and slightly over $100k in guaranteed UDFA money, per Spotrac. Slick bargain hunting. 

Still need: Wide receiver, quarterback, linebacker

Green Bay Packers | 2022 Draft Picks (9): 1 2 3 4 4c 5 6 6c 7

Talent: 27 | Equity: 24 | ROI: 30

NFL Draft: Cleveland and Baltimore appeared to snipe Green Bay for Greg Newsome and Rashod Bateman, the fourth corner and receiver in classes that fell off after the top-4. Instead of trading down at the end of R1, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst reached for a position need to take Georgia CB Eric Stokes. Only one corner would go on to be selected over the next 14 picks. Gutekunst finally did get around to taking a WR at 3.85. But even that decision was a head-scratcher, with the Packers deciding on Amari Rodgers, a glorified running back in the Ty Montgomery mold that only catches screen passes and the like. Rodgers is a better fit for Jordan Love's game -- Love threw a lot of screens at Utah State -- than another A. Rodgers currently employed by the club.

UDFA: Whoever impresses more in camp between UDFA DT Jack Heflin and Carlo Kemp has a real shot to crash the opening-day party. San Jose State WR Bailey Gaither brings a skillset this team could use next season. Whereas third-round WR Amari Rodgers only caught 36 balls beyond nine yards of the line of scrimmage over four years in college -- the last three of them working with Trevor Lawrence -- Gaither caught 39 over 19 games the last two seasons. Rogers was 4-for-13 (30.8%) in career contested catch situations 10+ yards downfield, while Gaither was 22-for-46 (47.8%) in those circumstances the last two years.

Still need: Offensive tackle, linebacker, defensive line

Houston Texans | 2022 Draft Picks (7): 1 2 3 4 5 6 7*

Talent: 32 | Equity: 31 | ROI: 12

^HOU acquired DAL 2022 R7 for Eli Ankou (November 2020); traded 2022 R7 to NEP for Ryan Izzo (March 2021)

NFL Draft: Houston walked slowly down the fairway over the three-day event with bullets in both feet, having squandered most of its draft capital in advance in flights-of-fancy trades. That it had to use its first pick on a quarterback -- the only position on the roster it shouldn't need -- because the franchise face demanded a trade and then immediately tanked his trade value off the field seemed like a fitting way to start the sad march. The most interesting thing about this class was the revelation that the NFL agreed with my pessimism about Brevin Jordan.

UDFA: The Texans had the league’s easiest UDFA pitch this process and managed to botch it. Houston signed one solid, draftable iOL who’ll likely make the team (Carson Green).... and (crickets). The three -- three! -- other signings were low-tier, low-ceiling prospects. The Missouri receiver is a drop machine, the UCF product didn't pop until he was too old to be admitted into the student rec center. Egregiously lazy amateur talent acquisition strategy by a front office charged with turning around an expansion-team like talent situation. 

Still need: Defensive front-seven, running back, cornerback

Indianapolis Colts | 2022 Draft Picks (8): 2* 3 4 5 5c 6 7 7c

Talent: 24 | Equity: 25 | ROI: 19

*IND will convey 2022 R1 to PHI if Carsons Wentz plays 75% of 2021 snaps (drops to 70% if Colts qualify for 2021 playoff) -- otherwise IND receives PHI 2022 R2

NFL Draft: Chris Ballard and crew got strong value at a position need with Kwity Paye in R1. I also liked the Shawn Davis pick in R5. I didn’t understand the rest of the draft. I struggled with the thinking on the Dayo Odeyingbo pick -- there were so many appealing options on the board, particular at OT and WR, two positions of need that weren’t really addressed. Not a disaster draft or anything, but Indianapolis didn’t gain ground on the upper-echelon of the AFC.

UDFA: Indy’s NFL-long streak of 22-consecutive years with a UDFA making the active roster is in serious jeopardy. Would you believe Indy only gave a five-figure cash guarantee to one UDFA this year? It went to Duke RB Deon Jackson, who got $45k. The contracts of Jonathan Taylor’s trio of backups -- Nyheim Hines, Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins -- all expire after next season. Jackson had a workmanlike career at Duke and mostly went unnoticed by the NFL Draft community until he popped at his pro day workout with an 89th-percentile RAS athletic composite. Running a 4.42 forty at 218 pounds earned Jackson a 90th-percentile Speed Score.

Still need: Offensive line, receiver, cornerback

Jacksonville Jaguars | 2022 Draft Picks (9): 1 2 3 4 5 5* 6 7 7^

Talent: 5 | Equity: 1 | ROI: 29

*Acquired 2022 MIN R5 in Yannick Ngakoue trade (October 2021)

*2022 BAL R7 will convey to JAX if TE Josh Oliver makes team (March 2021)

NFL Draft: Outside of being gifted Football Jesus, Urban Meyer and Trent Baalke underwhelmed. Etienne wasn’t good value at 1.25. I’m sure a part of the thinking was Etienne would provide comfort for Lawrence during his transition to the pros -- you know who would have provided more? Rashod Bateman, who went two picks later to those clever-devil Ravens. Etienne kicked off what turned out be the theme of Jacksonville’s draft, Meyer and Baalke grabbing at shiny objects when sure-thing prospects were still on the board. Tyson Campbell, Walker Little and Andre Cisco are, combined as a trio, a collection of flash plays and recruiting headlines. 

UDFA: WR Tim Jones, one of my favorite under-the-radar prospects in the class, got $180,000 guaranteed from Jacksonville -- No. 4 overall in the UDFA class and a top-5 figure all-time. Expect him to stick. LB Dylan Moses is a former five-star recruit that led the championship-winning Tide with 80 tackles last season. His tackle number flatters him -- Moses struggled in coverage and seemed zapped of north-south explosion against the run and as a pass-rusher in his 2020 return off an ACL tear. Moses also played through a torn meniscus last season, which couldn’t have helped matters.

Still need: Tight end, linebacker, secondary

Kansas City Chiefs | 2022 Draft Picks (7): 1 2 3 4 6* 7 7^

Talent: 23 | Equity: 30 | ROI: 2

*KC traded 2022 R5 to BAL and received BAL 2022 R6 in Orlando Brown Jr. trade (April 2021)

^KC traded 2022 R6 to MIN and received 2022 MIN R7 in Mike Hughes trade (May 2021)

NFL Draft: Not wanting a repeat of last year’s playoffs, the Chiefs saw Orlando Brown demand a trade to a team that would make him a left tackle and thought: We can do that! Which of course was brilliant. The Chiefs gave up a R1 and a R3 in that deal, but crucially got back BAL’s R2. Kansas City’s two-biggest draft steals, as luck would have it, came along the offensive line via Humphrey and Smith, the latter of whom only fell because of a lung issue that hasn’t cropped up or caused him to miss time over the past two seasons. The Chiefs are a talent-gobbling, efficiency-minded machine of an organization.

UDFA: QB Shane Buechele and EDGE Malik Herring were both top-2 UDFA options at their respective positions. And each, in kind, got top-15 UDFA guarantee money out of the Chiefs. I also ranked Riley Cole as the No. 6 UDFA off-ball linebacker. The Chiefs have collected a bunch of front-seven bodies to compete for bench spots in camps, so both Herring and Cole are going to have to bring their lunch pails to camp. Buechele’s signing sets the stage for a training camp Battle Royale between my two favorite UDFA quarterbacks of the last two classes, he and Anthony Gordon. With QB2 Chad Henne perhaps entering his last year with the Chiefs, that's a competition to keep an eye on. It'll be interesting to see if Kansas City elects to carry a QB3 this fall.

Still need: Defensive front-seven, secondary, receiver

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