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Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em

Start Jerry Jeudy and Your Broncos in Week 10

by Nick Mensio
Updated On: November 13, 2020, 10:00 am ET

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes.




Start of the Week: Aaron Rodgers vs. Jaguars -- Fantasy’s overall QB7 in points per game, Rodgers has tossed three-plus touchdowns in 6-of-8 games and sports a crisp 11:0 TD:INT mark over his last three outings after being shut down by the Bucs in Week 6. Rodgers leads the league in QBR and is No. 2 in TD percentage, as his 8.6% rate is well above his 6.1% career norm. The Jaguars represent another potential smash spot. Jacksonville is 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, dead last in pass-defense DVOA, and dead last in adjusted sack rate. Rodgers should have clean pockets to work from all day. Green Bay’s implied team total of 31.5 points is the highest on the Week 10 slate.




Jared Goff vs. Seahawks -- Goff isn’t exactly having himself a bounce-back season, checking in as fantasy’s overall QB22 in points per game halfway through his 2020 campaign. He’s 23rd in QBR and middle of the pack in touchdown percentage and yards per attempt while playing in the NFC’s third-heaviest rushing offense. The Rams are coming off their bye following his Week 8 embarrassment in Miami where he turned the ball over four times in the first half. But the Week 10 draw against Seattle is just too good to not put Goff on the streaming radar. Seattle is dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 29th in pass-defense DVOA, 21st in adjusted sack rate, and dead last in opponent plays per game. Josh Allen just pasted Seattle for the overall QB2 performance last week. Nick Mullens hung the QB16 day on Seattle the week before after coming on in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo. And Kyler Murray was the overall QB1 the previous week. Goff doesn’t have that kind of ceiling, but a top-12 week is well within the range of outcomes. The 54.5-point total for Seahawks-Rams is the second-highest of the week.

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Chargers -- Tagovailoa has attempted just 22 and 28 passes in his two starts against the Rams and Cardinals, but he was exponentially better in his second start in Arizona last week, going 20-of-28 for 248 yards (8.9 YPA) and two touchdowns as the QB17 for Week 9. He looked far more comfortable than he did against the Rams and also used his legs more with a 7-35 rushing line. Tagovailoa is unlikely to be a big-time volume thrower, but the Chargers offer a chance at a ceiling week. The Bolts are 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and fourth in offensive pace, giving the Dolphins a chance at a couple extra possessions. L.A. has surrendered multiple touchdowns in three straight games against Derek Carr, Drew Lock, and Gardner Minshew. None of them have the upside and talent of Tua. One would have to imagine both quarterbacks want to play well in this spot, too, after Tua and Justin Herbert went Nos. 5 and 6 overall in April’s draft. Tua is a borderline QB1/2 and a fine streamer.

Drew Brees vs. 49ers -- Brees is the overall QB16 in fantasy points per game but is fresh off lighting up the Bucs in the first half last Sunday night before the Saints squatted on the ball after the break, coasting to a 35-point win. Brees finished with four touchdown passes after getting both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders back in the lineup and a healthy Jared Cook. Brees’ supporting cast is as good as it’s been all season and gets to tee off on a Niners defense that has been wrecked by injuries and has no answers in the secondary as players continue to drop like flies. Aaron Rodgers was just about perfect against the Niners last week, going 25-of-31 for 305 yards and four touchdowns after Russell Wilson did nearly the same exact thing the week before. San Francisco is 19th in pass-defense DVOA and just doesn’t have the healthy talent to match up with this Saints Offense. Brees is very much a top-12 option in this spot. New Orleans is No. 7 in offensive plays per game, and the Saints’ implied team total of 29.25 points is the second-highest of the week, right behind the Packers.




Cam Newton vs. Ravens -- The overall QB7 in Weeks 1-3 before contracting COVID-19, Newton was the QB30 after returning to the lineup Weeks 6-8. Newton had a 0:5 TD:INT mark as a passer in that span with just two touchdowns on the ground after rushing for four touchdowns in his first three games. The matchups had been somewhat tough against the Broncos, 49ers, and Bills, but Week 9 was a predictable bounce-back spot against the Jets where Newton turned in the QB8 week on the back of two rushing scores. He still hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 3 and has just two passing scores on the year with one of the worst supporting casts in the sport. He now gets another tough Week 10 draw versus a Ravens unit that is No. 8 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, No. 7 in pass-defense DVOA, and in the top half of the league in rushing yards surrendered to the position. Both the Patriots and Ravens are bottom-10 in offensive pace while this game’s 43.5-point total is the week’s second-lowest. As touchdown underdogs, New England’s implied total of 18.25 points is the lowest of Week 10.

Matthew Stafford vs. Washington -- One of the bigger disappointments of the fantasy season, Stafford is barely on the QB2 map as the overall QB24 in points per game. He had to leave last week’s loss to the Vikings early to be checked for a concussion but ended up avoiding one and is good to go for Sunday’s home tilt with Washington. The problem is Kenny Golladay’s (hip) absence has sapped Stafford of his reliable downfield threat, and this offense hasn’t been nearly as aggressive downfield as it was last season when Stafford was playing at a legit MVP level before getting hurt. This game’s 45.5-point total is the fourth-lowest of Week 10 while Washington is No. 1 in pass-defense DVOA and No. 10 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Coach Ron Rivera’s unit has faced the second-fewest pass attempts. Stafford has no ceiling in this spot and a basement-level floor. He shouldn’t be in fantasy lineups.

Kirk Cousins at Bears -- Cousins has attempted 30 passes in a game just twice this season, and that number has been way down the last two weeks, as Cousins has totaled 34 attempts while Dalvin Cook is eating defenses alive on the ground. Cousins is the overall QB25 on the season in fantasy points per game despite leading the league in yards per attempt (8.9) and sporting a career high 7.2% touchdown rate. The problem really is just volume in the NFC’s run-heaviest offense. The Bears are No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and No. 4 in pass-defense DVOA. This game’s 43-point total is the lowest of Week 10 and features two of the seven slowest-paced offenses in football. Minnesota is dead last in total offensive plays.




Start of the Week: Chase Edmonds vs. Bills -- With Kenyan Drake (ankle) out, Edmonds played 96% of the Cardinals’ snaps in the Week 9 loss to the Dolphins, recording 28 touches. Unfortunately, he managed just 88 scoreless yards on those touches as one of the bigger fantasy disappointments of the week. The workload and snap rate, however, were truly elite. Drake has gotten in back-to-back limited practices to open the week, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to get the green light to face the Bills. Assuming Drake is out, Edmonds is a top-five RB1 playing essentially every snap and handling every backfield touch in a game with a 56-point total, the highest of Week 10. Buffalo is 20th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and 22nd in run-defense DVOA. Damien Harris (16-102-1), Lamical Perine (11-40-1), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (26-161) have all met or exceeded expectations on the ground against the Bills over the last month. If Drake plays, however, he and Edmonds are rendered risky FLEX plays.




D’Andre Swift vs. Washington -- The Lions employed about as even a three-man RBBC as we’ve seen from them all season last week in the loss to the Vikings. Kerryon Johnson played a season-high 33% of the snaps, seeing his most carries (4) since Week 2 and setting a season-best with three targets. Adrian Peterson was in on 27% of the snaps and drew eight carries and an abnormal five targets. Swift, after playing 62% of the snaps in Week 8, dropped back down to 40% but led the backfield with 18 combined carries and targets, totaling 99 yards. Swift is the only fantasy-viable option here and gets a plus draw against Washington. This is a run-funnel defense that is 17th in DVOA versus the run and No. 1 against the pass. And with Detroit installed as 3.5-point favorites, this sets up as a spot for the Lions to control the flow. I’m a bit worried the Lions could try to feed Peterson, but Swift is just such a better player right now.

Antonio Gibson at Lions -- With the Football Team getting railroaded by the Giants most of last week before mounting a late comeback attempt, Gibson played just 46% of the snaps while J.D. McKissic was in on a season-high 83% of the plays. McKissic leads all running backs in routes run and isn’t going away. The good news is this is a two-man backfield where Gibson is the preferred guy running the ball for Washington. Detroit has been annihilated by running backs, checking in at dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position and 25th in run-defense DVOA. Dalvin Cook (22-206-2) was gaining 8-10 yards on seemingly every attempt last week while backup Alexander Mattison (12-69) averaged a crisp 5.8 YPC himself. Jordan Wilkins (20-89-1) had his best game of the season against the Lions the previous week. Todd Gurley found the end zone twice the week before that. This defense is horrendous against the run, and Gibson has scored in back-to-back games. A 3.5-point spread suggests this game should be close, giving Gibson a chance at racking up some volume. Washington wants to hide Alex Smith, too. Gibson has a scary floor, but the upside is undeniable in a dream matchup.

Melvin Gordon at Raiders -- Gordon out-snapped Phillip Lindsay 60% to 38% in Week 9 against the Falcons, but Lindsay out-carried (8) and out-targeted (3) Gordon (6, 1) in the loss as the game got away from Denver before mounting a late comeback attempt. Gordon should still be considered the back to have in Denver as a low-end RB2 while Lindsay is a borderline RB3/4, and this game sets up better for Gordon to see some volume. The Raiders are dead last in run-defense DVOA and 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Kalen Ballage (15-69-1), Kareem Hunt (14-66), and Leonard Fournette/Ronald Jones (24-84-1) all experienced success on the ground over the Raiders’ last three games. This game has a nice 50-point total and four-point spread, suggesting it could be close. Vegas’ defense is so bad while the Broncos are top-10 in plays per game. Gordon is a solid, if unspectacular, RB2.




Devin Singletary at Cardinals -- Zack Moss has out-snapped Singletary in back-to-back games, and the rookie saw 11 combined carries and targets to Singletary’s three last week in a pass-happy game plan against the Seahawks. Moss also has the edge over Singletary in the red zone and scoring area, but both are behind Josh Allen for goal-line looks. Seeing fewer and fewer touches and minimal “money” chances around the end zone, Singletary is a guy who is going to have to score from distance if he wants to visit the paint. This is a game to attack with a 56-point total, but Singletary can’t be trusted as anything more than a low-floor RB3/4. His arrow is pointing down while Moss’ is screaming upward and approaching RB2 status.

DeeJay Dallas at Rams -- Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Homer were all injured in Week 8, allowing Dallas to soak up 79% of the snaps. Carson and Hyde were both out again in Week 9, but Homer returned to play 48% to Dallas’ 31% rate, and Alex Collins was promoted from the practice squad to soak up 20% of the playing time. Carson and Hyde haven’t practiced all week, but it looks like the Seahawks have settled on a three-man committee in their absence. The Rams are No. 7 in fantasy points allowed to running backs and 14th in run-defense DVOA. Dallas saved his Week 9 with a late touchdown run, but his touches plummeted from 23 in Week 8 to nine last Sunday against Buffalo. Dallas just can’t be trusted with Collins and Homer healthy, even in a game with a 54.5-point total. Dallas should be considered a low-floor RB3/4.

Damien Harris vs. Ravens -- Sony Michel (quad) returned to practice last week and is expected back from I.R. as soon as Week 10. In the Week 9 win over the Jets, Rex Burkhead (15) narrowly out-touched Harris (14), and Burkhead scored his first touchdown since Week 4 while Harris left early with a chest injury. Harris offers nothing in the pass game and will likely lose his lead-back gig on early downs to Michel, or they’ll split things. Nobody really knows how this will play out. There are just too many bodies in this backfield. Even if Michel isn’t active against the Ravens, it’s not a good spot for Harris. Baltimore is No. 1 in run-defense DVOA and No. 4 in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Harris is a zero-floor, risky FLEX play with the Patriots implied to score a Week 10-low 18.25 points as touchdown underdogs.

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Start of the Week: Jerry Jeudy at Raiders -- Jeudy has set season-highs in snap rates (89%, 84%) and targets (10, 14) over the last two weeks, posting 4-73 and 7-125-1 receiving lines. Jeudy has really turned it on and is Drew Lock’s favorite target in a premier spot. The Raiders are 26th in pass-defense DVOA and 18th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts. Keenan Allen (9-103-1), Mike Williams (5-81), Scotty Miller (6-109-1), Chris Godwin (9-88-1), and Tyreek Hill (3-78) have all met or exceeded expectations against Vegas over the last month. Jeudy’s expanded role and growing snap share while moving outside away from the slot has raised his ceiling considerably, as he’s seeing more downfield targets, giving him a better shot at creating plays. Jeudy should be strapped to lineups as an upside WR2 in a game with a 50-point total.




John Brown at Cardinals -- Brown had been playing through injury for weeks leading up to last Sunday against the Seahawks, but Seattle predictably proved to be a slump-busting spot. Brown set season bests in targets (11), catches (8), and yards (99) against the Seahawks and now gets a #revenge spot against his former team in Arizona. Much like last week’s high-total affair with Seattle, this is again a spot we simply want to attack and have pieces of with a 56-point total, the highest of Week 10. With Stefon Diggs likely to occupy Patrick Peterson’s coverage, Brown should run most of his routes against inferior corners. The Cardinals play at the second-fastest offensive pace and are 26th in opponent plays per game on defense as a result. This is a high-floor, high-ceiling spot for the Buffalo offense. Brown is a WR3 play.

Christian Kirk vs. Bills -- Kirk is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and quietly has posted 57 yards and/or one touchdown in all but one game this year, scoring five times over the last three weeks and six times over the last five. He’s Kyler Murray’s top downfield threat while DeAndre Hopkins works corners over with his route-running in the short and intermediate areas. Hopkins will see a ton of Tre’Davious White in this one, leaving Kirk to operate on far lesser talents. The Bills have been strong against the pass, but this game’s 56-point total is easily the highest on the board for Week 10. We want to have pieces of this game, and it’s a good way to break ties in lineup decisions where Kirk is a WR3 with upside.

Brandon Aiyuk at Saints -- Due to close contact with Kendrick Bourne, rookie Aiyuk had to sit out last Thursday night against the Packers on the COVID-19 list. He’s since been cleared to play this Sunday while Bourne remains on the reserve list. It should be Aiyuk, Richie James, and River Cracraft or Trent Taylor making up the Niners’ three-wide set with Deebo Samuel still out injured. Aiyuk played 90% of the snaps last time out against Seattle and has 100 yards and/or one touchdown in each of the last three games, seeing 20 targets in that span. This game features two of the four slowest-paced offenses and a Saints Defense that is No. 4 in opponent plays per game, but with the depleted state of the Niners’ offense, it keeps Aiyuk on the WR2/3 board with upside while the Saints are No. 24 in fantasy points allowed to WRs.




Marvin Jones vs. Washington -- Even with Kenny Golladay (hip) out last week against the Vikings, Jones was targeted just four times but was able to find the end zone on a 3-43-1 line. This offense just isn’t any fun, and the air has been let out of the ball as OC Darrell Bevell prefers to lean on his three-man backfield instead of pushing the ball downfield through the air. Jones has three touchdowns over his last two games but now gets a date with a Washington Defense that is No. 1 in DVOA against the pass and No. 2 in fantasy points allowed to wideouts. This game’s 45.5-point total is the fourth-lowest of the week and figures to be dominated by the run. Jones should be considered a WR3/4 in a game we really don’t want to attack via the air.

Nelson Agholor vs. Broncos -- Agholor has emerged as a starter and top-three wideout for the Silver and Black and actually leads the team in touchdown catches. But he can’t keep up this pace. Agholor has seen more than four targets in a game just once and has five touchdowns on just 17 catches. That’s an impossible rate, especially in a low-volume passing offense like the Raiders’ where Derek Carr has totaled 28 completions over the last two weeks. Agholor leads the league in yards per catch and has multiple long touchdowns on YAC efforts. It’s simply unsustainable. Josh Jacobs should be the centerpiece this week with the Raiders as four-point home favorites. Agholor needs to be treated as a low-floor WR4/5.

Mike Williams at Dolphins -- In Justin Herbert’s six starts with Williams, the big-play wideout has as many sub-20 yards games (3) as he does games of 80-plus yards. Williams’ target counts have been all over the place with 23 in the high output weeks and just seven total in the three low-floor outings. Williams is as high-upside, low-floor as they come at the receiver position, and now he gets as Week 10 date with stud outside CBs Byron Jones and Xavien Howard while the Chargers can get Keenan Allen away from them by giving him looks in the slot. Williams can score anytime he takes the field, but this is a spot I don’t want to attack.




Start of the Week: Dallas Goedert at Giants -- Zach Ertz is still on injured reserve. Goedert returned from the I.R. list last time out in Week 8 and played 84% of the snaps. He’s now had the bye to rest his ankle ahead of a plus draw with the Giants. Rob Gronkowski (4-41-1) scored against the G-Men in Week 8, and Richard Rodgers filled in as the Eagles’ TE1 in Week 7 to lead the team in receiving with a 6-85 line. Goedert is a top-five play at a very thin position.




Logan Thomas at Lions -- Thomas played 100% of Washington’s Week 9 snaps against the Giants. That’s enough to make him a top-12 play at fantasy’s weakest position. The Lions didn’t cover Irv Smith (2-10-2) last week and allowed a combined 8-64-1 line to Colts tight ends the week before. Hayden Hurst (6-68) met expectations in Week 7 against Detroit. Thomas has risk-averse Alex Smith throwing him the ball, and Thomas’ routes fall right in line with where Smith likes to throw. Thomas has been a letdown several weeks already this year, and his floor is extremely low, but his routes run and snap share make him a very viable streamer.

Noah Fant at Raiders -- Fant has played 78% of the Broncos’ snaps in back-to-back weeks and is the overall TE10 in half-PPR points per game. Looking healthier by the week the further out he gets from his high-ankle sprain, Fant could be in line for an even bigger workload in the red zone after rookie TE Albert Okwuegbunam tore his ACL last week. The Raiders are 26th in pass-defense DVOA, and this game has one of the better totals of the week at 50 points.

Jimmy Graham vs. Vikings -- Graham has failed to top 34 yards in all but two games this season, but he plays significant snaps (69%) and leads the team with 11 red-zone targets. Graham has become a favorite of Nick Foles’ in the scoring area with five red-zone scores and four inside the 10-yard line. The Vikings are 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and only three teams have surrendered more yards to the position. Graham is as TD-dependent as they come at tight end, but he’s on the field enough and is the No. 1 option near the end zone.




Tight end is a crapshoot, and all we’re looking for are tight ends who can find the end zone and/or see volume in terms of targets. Predicting touchdowns is the hardest thing to do in football. Just finding a tight end who is on the field enough and runs plenty of routes is difficult enough. It’s why having Travis Kelce and Darren Waller is such an advantage in fantasy.