The Weekly Taste

Analyzing Over/Under Win Totals for NFC Teams

by John Venezia
Updated On: August 26, 2022, 10:42 am ET

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Those AFC Win Totals have been submitted and are hot off the press. While, I am not a huge win total bettor, as a matter of fact, I think it's idiotic, I won't slight anybody else that wants to get some action on it. Incoming is the NFC.

*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.

All Odds and Totals are via PointsBet

NFC EAST:

Dallas Cowboys- 10.5 (Over +120 | Under -145)

Dallas has never been one of those teams that wet my whistle. They usually reveal themselves as the frauds that they are at some point in the season. While the division crown may not be a layup for them this year, the NFC East is still overall a pathetic bunch. Dallas has a lot of winnable games this season -what else is new- with a handful of toss ups. The mid-season stretch might be a big determining factor on how 2022 goes for them with the Rams, Eagles, Lions, Bears, Packers, Vikings, Giants, and Colts from weeks 5-13. 10 wins is probably where the Cowboys end up this year.

UNDER 10.5 Wins (-145)

Philadelphia Eagles- 9.5 (Over -130 | Under +110)

There's some hype on Philly heading into the season. And why not? They won nine games a season ago and made the playoffs. This year, they picked up AJ Brown on draft night, as well as added some good talent on the defensive side of the ball. Plus, rumor has it that they could be in the market to poach Kareem Hunt from the Browns. Fantasy wise, there is a ton of love for Jalen Hurts, which more than likely materializes into a top seven or better overall finish. The question of that translating into wins though is something else entirely. If Hurts improves as a passer, this team could take a quantum leap forward with the sparkling pass catching group they have. Defensively, the acquisitions should also provide a nice boost. At the end of the day, if those things complement that league-leading run game from 2021, this is a team that could very well win the NFC East. By the looks of it, the Eagles have 10 wins on that schedule, making for an extremely intriguing race with the Cowboys. Circle that Week 16 game against Dallas on Christmas Eve. The Eagles at +150 to win the division is a better bet than the win total.

OVER 9.5 Wins (-130)

Washington Commanders- 7.5 (Over -135 | Under +115)

Though Carson Wentz has talent, I can't saddle up with a mentally weak QB like he is. Washington does have some pieces, but it still presents itself as a team that might finish last in this division. Crunching the numbers and the schedule, six wins looks like a viable option for the 2022 Commanders. Defensively, we don't know what Chase Young will look like coming off an ACL Tear, their secondary has question marks, and we have no clue if the top five unit we saw in 2020 was a mirage or not. It's very possible this team goes as the defense goes. It would not shock me if Washington starts out 1-9 this year.

UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

New York Giants- 7.5 (Over +125 | Under -150)

The Giants in the next three years -or less- will surprise a lot of people and make a significant turnaround. Grabbing OC Brian Daboll from Buffalo to run the show was the best acquisition they have made in years. Anybody who has watched the Bills elevate from 2018 to now has seen what kind of effect he has had on that offense, mainly with the progression of Josh Allen. Now I'm not saying Daniel Jones is anything close to Allen, but what I am saying is I can see a trajectory of improvement that makes the Giants a formidable opponent. The defense has some question marks, but the offense has some really solid pieces. We have been waiting on a monster year from Saquon Barkley for a long time after that unbelievable rookie season. This might be the year we finally get it. NYG looks like a seven-win team based on their schedule, but in 2023 we may be discussing them as a playoff team if a few things go their way.

UNDER 7.5 Wins (-150)

NFC NORTH:

Green Bay Packers 11.5 wins (Over +120 | Under -145)

I was counting on a regression for the Packers this year, and I still am. However, I might buy them on their win total of 11.5 games. It sounds crazy, I know, but they still have Aaron Rodgers with a great 1-2 punch at running back, and a high-end defense. The lack of established receiving threats and a truly secure offensive line is obviously a concern, but to be fair Rodgers has made up for so many team deficiencies throughout his career that I think he is capable of doing it yet again. The schedule is no layup, in fact their second half is incredibly tough, but I think 12 wins is feasible for them.

OVER 11.5 Wins (+120)

Minnesota Vikings- 9.5 (Over +110 | Under -130)

A case could be made for the Vikings that they are the worst team in the history of the NFL in close games. Last year, eight of their nine losses were by one possession. Between a mix of bad luck, injuries, and flat out not executing, they could not manage to get out of their own way. With the changing of the guard from HC Mike Zimmer to Kevin O'Connell, Minny is altering their team DNA to a more passing centric approach. Their secondary improved through healthy players returning, as well as the draft. Key guys like Danielle Hunter returned. Their offense is going to go absolutely nuclear this year. If you have been paying attention, you know Justin Jefferson is my OPOY and yards leader. Cousins is a guy I would throw an MVP ticket on in the 45-50 to 1 range. This is a team I think wins the division and surprises a lot of people. It may sound crazy, but I think if a few things go their way this year, they could very well be a 12- or 13-win team this year. That bad luck should regress to the mean in 2022.

OVER 9.5 Wins (+110)

Detroit Lions- 6.5 (Over -135 | Under +115

The Lions have also become something of a popular team. Being on Hard Knocks certainly helps. While they have a handful of tough matchups this season, there are definitely a lot of chances for them to exploit their opponents. Detroit has garnered a little love to sneak in the playoffs this season. As a matter of fact, I think they steal the seven seed, as evidenced by the COY pick on Dan Campbell. Jared Goff stinks, but the guy is capable of doing just enough to lead his team to the postseason if he knocks off the ridiculous turnovers. With D'Andre Swift, Amon Ra- St. Brown, TJ Hockenson, Jameson Williams, DJ Chark, and a solid O-line, this offense looks poised to take a big leap forward this season.

OVER 6.5 wins (-135)

Chicago Bears- 6.5 (Over +150 | Under -180)

The total on this team is comically high, in addition to the price on it. This one is an easy choice for me. I have no belief in the Bears. This team should be vying for a top seed in the 2023 NFL Draft. Offensively, they have David Montgomery and Darnell Mooney as skill players that are capable of making an impact, but that's pretty much it. Justin Fields has the ability to be a good QB one day, but the organization is not putting him in a position to succeed. This is no doubt one of, if not the worst, roster in the entire NFL. They might win four games this year. It's better practice to bet against them almost every week on the spread.

UNDER 6.5 Wins (-180)

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NFC SOUTH:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 11.5 (Over +105 | Under -125)

The offseason has not been kind to the Bucs. It seems like they lost nearly their entire starting line at some point throughout the summer. Tom Brady just showed up from vacationing in the Bahamas. Bruce Arians “stepped aside” for Todd Bowles to take over. There are a ton of question marks surrounding this team. Ultimately, they will likely be fine, but their win total looks a tad high to me. We could see this Bucs team realistically start out 1-3 or even 0-4 with the Cowboys, Saints, Packers, Chiefs on deck. 10 wins is probably my bet for this team.

UNDER 11.5 Wins (-125)

New Orleans Saints- 8.5 (Over -120 | Under +100)

I had to think hard about this for a few weeks, but I came to a decision that I firmly stand by heading into the season. The Saints should not only win 10 + games, not only win the NFC South, but be in the mix for the top seed in the NFC. The win total over is a given for me, but the way to get involved early is to grab New Orleans to win the division now before the season starts. The way I mentioned the rough opening for Tampa Bay is the exact opposite for the Saints. They draw Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Minnesota, Seattle to start. That might be 4-1 or even 5-0. Their division price would be shot by that point, so that's my approach for the Saints. Jameis Winston is in for a big year post tearing his ACL. It's a contract year for our boy Jamo, and I think he shows out.

OVER 8.5 Wins (-120)

Carolina Panthers- 6.5 (Over +100 | Under -120)

This is a fence team. If Christian McCaffrey stays healthy, and Baker Mayfield improves on being consistent and limiting turnovers -both gigantic ifs- then this Carolina team is going to be a tough out. They have a lot of firepower on that defense. Their schedule is filled with toss up games that could go either way. Generally, I'm staying away from this team altogether until I see what's happening with them once the season starts, but for now I would say their win total is a bit too high.

UNDER 6.5 Wins (-120)

Atlanta Falcons- 4.5 (Over -125 | Under +105)

This team is a cancer and bane of my existence. In some combination their signal caller will be Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder. This team is bad, but it might find a way to be a little better than people think. They have some quality players on the offense like Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, and Drake London. Defensively they have AJ Terrell, one of the elite young corners in the NFL, along with DT standout Grady Jarrett. It's going to be close, but I think this team finds a way to sneak out five wins.

OVER 4.5 Wins (-125)

NFC WEST:

Los Angeles Rams- 10.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)

Not to brag, but I was on the Rams to win the Super Bowl last summer when there was a lot of doubt on Big Daddy Stafford. Nevertheless, the team looks as good, if not better than 2021. Stafford said he feels more comfortable and has a better understanding of the offense this year, which is a scary thought. On paper, there are a lot of tough matchups on the slate, but the way I see it, these Rams are better than pretty much every team in the NFL. If all things remain equal and the health fortune is in their favor, this is at least an 11-win squad that is capable of making another deep postseason run.

OVER 10.5 Wins (-110)

San Francisco 49ers- 10.5 (Over +140 | Under -170)

A lot of the Niners success hinges on Trey Lance. Fantasy wise might be a different story than actual football in his first year as the starting QB for the gold miners. The nucleus of this team is largely still intact, which is a huge plus. It also doesn't hurt that they have two layups to kick off 2022 in Chicago and Seattle. Because of the handful of beatable opponents, nine or 10 wins is definitely on the table so long as Lance doesn't throw up on himself and can actually complete a pass. However, there are enough tough games like Chiefs, Rams (twice), Chargers, Saints, Bucs, Broncos, Raiders to keep this team under 11 victories. Laying 170 for this bet is not something I'm running to the window for though.

UNDER 10.5 Wins (-170)

Arizona Cardinals- 8.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)

The Cards' schedule is an absolute blood bath in 2022. Their mirage 7-0 start in 2021 proved to be utterly useless in the postseason as they got mopped by the Rams 34-11 in the Wild Card game. I was not a big believer in this team last year, and that carries over into this one. Kyler Murray, the toddler, is not it for me. He's a talented player, but he usually manages to pick up injuries that either force him to miss games, or severely hinder his performances - and it usually comes in about November. Losing DeAndre Hopkins for six games isn't the end all be all since they scooped Hollywood Brown for the Ravens (Murray's college teammate at Oklahoma). While this air raid offense might be fun to watch at times and result in some fire fantasy performances, it does not do much for me in terms of the success of this team. There is a realistic chance Arizona could be 3-9 heading into their Week 13 bye.

UNDER 8.5 Wins (-110)

Seattle Seahawks- 5.5 (Over -130 | Under +110)

There is an actual chance that Seattle isn't AS BAD as we think they will be. Sure, the defense is a mess, but it's not nearly as crappy as their QB situation with the Geno Smith/Drew Lock experience. However, they got two stud receivers in Papa DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in addition to a couple of young gun running backs (that have uncertainties regarding injuries at the moment) in Rashaad Penny and Ken Walker. Then again, there is a rumor that every time Pete Carroll chews his gum like a cow, the Seahawks suffer another loss. In all fairness though, this schedule is no cake walk. Four wins might be the ceiling unless one of these signal callers reincarnates themselves as John Elway.

UNDER 5.5 Wins (+110)

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John Venezia

John Venezia (@_JohnnyVTV) is a former gambling lead for JDF Sports that has turned his attention to cashing winners for NBC Sports EDGE. He is a bitter Falcons' fan from New Jersey that is still hanging on to his team by a thread.