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You know the drill. The main card is out and about floating around in the ether, so it's time to dip back into the additional plays of the week. Also, I'm looking at starting a new show, so if anybody has some recommendations feel free to hit your boy up.
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
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Plays I Like (Official Plays):
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-4) | Over/Under 47.5
Fair point, this line has moved all week, so as Drake said, “If you're reading this, it's too late.” Possibly. In an unconscious effort, the fourth game on my slate features a bird against a land animal, ain't it cray? Will Detroit be able to overcome all of their misfortunes?
Quick revisit of history. The Lions got smacked by the Hawks 51-26 last season in the Pacific Northwest. Rashaad Penny looked like the reincarnation of Walter Payton as he dashed his way to a 25/170/2 line. Seattle ran 41 times for 265 yards and two tuddies that game in a man-handling performance.
Rumor has it that every time Pete Carroll chews his gum, Christian McCaffrey picks up a new injury. Seattle is obviously not the same team they were last season, so this new approach to “let Geno cook” has provided some question marks to this offense. For whatever reason, they refuse to fully commit to the ground game that they felt compelled to when Russell Wilson was under center. They have largely stayed out of negative game script thus far, but only have 56 rush attempts (10 of which are Geno Smith's) to 102 pass attempts from Geno. That won't win this team many games. Penny was a fantasy league winner and cheat code from Week 14-18 last season as nobody compiled more yards (671) or scores (6) than he did. Facing a Lions' defense that is sixth worth against the run this season (142.3 YPG), it would mesmerize me if they did not try to feed their star RB1 like last time. It's been a bit quiet for Penny thus far (32/141), but if you keep poking at a bear, it will eventually come after you. After they get that ground game working, hit some deep shots with Tyler Lockett and Papa DK Metcalf as one of them should be in for a big day, so long as this o-line can contain DE Aidan Hutchinson.
Detroit was a team I felt would finally make a leap this year to sneak in the playoffs, hence my Dan Campbell COY pick (+1600). In typical fashion, they threw up all over themselves on Sunday after holding a 10 point lead in the middle of the 4th quarter. Some stupid coaching decisions and poor execution, and the next thing you know the Vikings win the game. Now this Lions' team will be playing without star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and likely RB D'Andre Swift in addition to other limited skill players. Sure, you might say the Lions are 14-6 ATS under Campbell, but don't forget those games were pretty much all as sizable dogs. They haven't covered a spread as a favorite since November 15th, 2020 against Washington with Big Daddy Stafford as the signal caller. Even without Swift, Jamaal Williams should build off that big day in Week 3 against a Seahawk run defense that has gotten gashed for 157 YPG (2nd most in NFL). QB Jared Goff needs to play a clean and patient game to keep his team on schedule. The Lions are still very much in play here.
There is a reason I do lookaheads early in the week. It gives me a chance to get my initial thoughts in before things like injuries and money come pouring before making adjustments. I did like the Lions -6 on Monday, but after seeing the injuries Detroit might have on Sunday along with a lot of the sharp Seattle money, I had to settle on the Seahawks. I am rooting for the Lions this season, but I just think the Hawks are set up better in this spot, catching outside of a field goal. It's definitely worth a little sprinkle on the Money Line for the underdog.
Prediction: Seahawks cover (+4)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) | Over/Under 45.5
Super Bowl LV rematch in the same exact place, my former home of Tampa, FL. After Hurricane Ian destroyed a lot of southwest Florida, it appears for the moment that Tampa was not actually hit that badly. Speaking to some of my people that still live there, things are okay. The NFL obviously feels confident enough in keeping this game in the heart of South Tampa on SNF, which is a good indicator. Game-wise, who responds after both teams lost in Week 3?
The Bucs have gotten hosed with key injuries since the summer. That played a huge part in their nail-biter 14-12 loss to the Packers last week. However, we might be able to cautiously say they will be getting back a lot of their horses for Sunday night. WRs Julio Jones and Chris Godwin will be game-time calls along with LT Donovan Smith, all of whom have been limited in practice all week. Obviously they get back big Mike Evans after serving a one-game suspension against the Saints. The good news is this Tampa Bay offense cannot get much worse than it has been this season (14.6 PPG). Facing a KC defense that has played much worse than the box scores have suggested, this should be a spot where the Bucs get right. TB needs to get back to picking up the ground game with Uncle Lenny Fournette, as well as using him in the passing game since the Chiefs' defense has allowed the most catches against backs (28). Since TB12 showed up, the Bucs are 7-2 SU/ATS off a loss.
Thus far, what almost everybody feared would happen for the Chiefs has happened. Without Tyreek “T-Hilly” Hill, they look like a slightly above-average offense. KC had no business winning against the Chargers on TNF as Mahomes should have had about five picks. And last week against Indy, they could only muster 17 points. Patrick Mahomes DEFINITELY looks way better on paper than he actually has been (8 TD/1 INT ratio). With limited help from the run game, and Travis Kelce transforming into hella average, it could be tough sledding against this elite number one defensive unit of Tampa Bay that is number one in scoring and takeaways in addition to being the fourth best overall (289 YPG). It seems like an extremely difficult matchup for Mahomes and company.
Assuming the Bucs get their guys back, let's remove the X's and O's of this game for a second which heavily favor Tampa Bay in my humble opinion. The city, as well as a lot of the state, just got crushed by one of the most devastating hurricanes in recent memory. Are you kidding? A motivated Bucs team playing for their city? Tom Brady might put up a 50 bean on SNF. For extra measurement, Tampa is seeing more of the sharp money (at least at BetMGM), despite the dramatic four-point swing throughout the week. This could potentially set up as a spot where the Chiefs get blown out of the building.
Prediction: Bucs win (-110)
Window Shopping (Unofficial Plays):
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos
I might actually end up playing this one officially. Ignore the fact that it's a must-win for Vegas at 0-3, and they have historically dominated Denver (won 6 of last 7). The Raiders are not AS BAD as everybody thinks, despite still being pretty bad though. Their offense is loaded at the skill group but has struggled the last two weeks because - you can probably guess it - they refuse to involve WR Davante Adams (17 targets). For a team that has passed as much as they have the last two weeks (84 attempts), you would think Adams has gone nuclear. The bigger problem is they have not been committed to the ground game (40 times). Get back to the ground game, and I think they pull out the W late.
Houston Texans (+6) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
LAC is dealing with a ridiculous amount of key injuries right now. It makes you wonder whose grave they dug up to deserve this violent wave of bad karma. WR Keenan Allen, LT Rashawn Slater (out for year), DE Joey Bosa (IR) are all definitely out with C Corey Lindsley (TBD) and CB JC Jackson highly questionable. Not to mention Justin Herbert has to shoot up pain killing injections to play. I love my Chargers, but it's a tough spot here. Not that Houston is particularly good, but they are a feisty bunch. After the upset they pulled on LAC at home last season, it would not surprise me to see the Texans to cover this touchdown number in Week 4.
AJ Brown Anytime TD +150
Yes, it's wild there is a number that high for Arthur to score a tuddy. That's why I said SHOP AROUND. If you read my main card Weekly Taste article, you would know I have the Eagles winning and covering, which means they need to score. AJB has been a stud to start off this year building great chemistry with Jalen Hurts. Let's break this down. The Jags' overrated defense has given up five scores to wideouts this year (T-2nd most). Facing a juggernaut offense like Philly might create a lot of issues matching up for them. Combine that with the price and the fact that Brown is a new father again (had a son), there is no way I can't throw down a bet for my guy Arthur. Always back the anytime TD prop for babies. Brown might go for 12/170/3 on Sunday.
After hitting the Eagles last week, we will be going with… the Green Packers at home against the New England Patriots. You might be calling this a cheap cop-out with the Pats starting Brian Hoyer at QB with Mac Jones out as 10-point dogs in Lambeau, but hey you do whatever you have to do in order to… SURVIVE.
Seahawks cover +4 (-110)
Bucs win (-110)
AJ Brown Anytime TD +150
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.