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A'ja Wilson
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Wolf's Wagers

A'ja Wilson and WNBA Provide Aha Moment for Bettors

by NBC Sports EDGE Staff
Updated On: July 19, 2022, 1:19 pm ET

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With the All-Star Break comes an opportunity to break from the rigors of betting baseball and seek out value elsewhere in the marketplace. With football season fast approaching, where can bettors look to build their bankrolls?  The WNBA offers a potential oasis for the smart bettor. The W is a league that offers ample opportunities to find value on a nightly basis.

EDGE WNBA Analyst Jake Wolf has teamed up with Calvin Wetzel and Dano Mataya of Her Hoops Stats to offer three plays from tonight’s WNBA slate. Her Hoop Stats has been unlocking better insight about women's basketball since 2017 with traditional and advanced stats. The Her Hoop Stats team launched @spread_thefloor for the 2022 WNBA Season to provide even more in-depth coverage of the WNBA.

Feel free to play them individually or parlay them with a boost from PointsBet.

 

 

Jake Wolf (@JakeWolf13): Las Vegas Aces -11.5

The Las Vegas Aces are capable of pulling away from an opponent at any time, as the team showed in a comeback win over Connecticut on Sunday. Even with Atlanta coming off a victory and adding All-Star Rhyne Howard back into the rotation, this should be a double-digit win for an Aces team that is now fully healthy.

Las Vegas won the first meeting of the season in Atlanta between these teams by 23 points and the Aces will be at home in Vegas for tonight's matchup. The Aces outclassed the Dream in nearly every stat category in the May victory, with rebounding standing out as the key exception. Nia Coffey grabbed seven of those boards against the Aces but will miss tonight's game along with Monique Billings, who picked up more than half of the team's seven offensive rebounds against Las Vegas in their first tilt. The Dream could struggle to replicate that success on the boards against the top defensive rebounding team in the W.

With Becky Hammon's team playing at a speedy pace and shooting the league's best three-point percentage, there should be plenty of points scored by the Aces. I expect DPOY candidate A'ja Wilson's elite rim protection to limit Atlanta's offense and allow Las Vegas to pull away at home.

 

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Calvin Wetzel (@cwetzel31): Aces/Dream Over 170

No team has been better at hitting the OVER this season than the Las Vegas Aces. For the season, they are 16-9 to the OVER and average more than five points above the closing totals. Aces’ games also have only closed at a lower total than their opening number six times this season, suggesting books have not adjusted their opening lines nearly enough to account for Las Vegas’ potent offense.

On the Atlanta side, the Dream have cashed nine of their last 13 OVERS, and their defense ranks 10th in 3-point rate allowed and dead last in opponent free throw rate. Both of those are areas that Las Vegas is well-equipped to take full advantage of offensively, so expect a high-scoring affair in this one.

 

Dano Mataya (@drmataya): Fever/Sparks Over 163.5

In a battle of the current 8th and 12th seeds in the WNBA, we have the league’s worst defense in the Indiana Fever traveling to Los Angeles to take on a healthier than normal Sparks team. The Sparks’ defense has not been much to write home about either as they rank 11th out of 12 in opponent field goal percentage which is just above the Fever. Both teams believe they should win this game, and the Fever’s league leading pace should be enough to push this game to the 170s.

 

For those interested in combining these three plays into a parlay, PointsBet has boosted it from +350 to +425. 

 

Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.

 

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