The WNBA features plenty of action to kick off the month with six teams in action on Friday, July 1. My projections show value on a large spread for the final matchup of tonight's three-game slate. A strong 9-2 week put my WNBA picks record at 43-30 (59%) for a profit of 24.73 units so far this season.
Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever
I'm backing the Storm to cover as big favorites tonight against the Fever, who posted a league-worst 7-14 record against the spread so far this season.
The Fever went just 2-10 against opponents with a .500 record or better and lost all three matchups by 10 points or more against Seattle last season. Indiana is also the only squad to lose more than 10 games by double-digits so far this season as the Fever lost by at least 12 points in more than half of the team's first 21 games.
More than 23% of Seattle's points scored came from opponent turnovers so far this season, the highest rate in the WNBA. The Fever allowed opponents to score a league-high 19 points off turnovers per game so the league's most efficient transition team should be able to capitalize on Indiana's inexperience to generate easy offense.
The Storm's transition dominance should allow Seattle to pull away, especially with new addition Tina Charles adding an offensive boost off the bench. The veteran center set a season-high with 29 points against the Fever for Phoenix on June 15 and no player averaged more points so far this year against Indiana than Charles.
Seattle enters this game with the league's best defensive rating while Indiana ranks last in defensive efficiency. The Fever also shot the worst effective field-goal percentage in the league and ranked among the bottom-three offenses this season. The talent gap between these two teams is significant as All-Star snub Kelsey Mitchell and her young Fever teammates can only do so much against a contending squad headlined by experienced veterans.
Even with all the star power on Seattle's roster, Ezi Magbegor is finding a way to stand out during her breakout season. Magbegor ranks atop the league in blocks per game and is a major part of Seattle's strong defensive performance this year. The third-year center is on pace to join WNBA legend Lisa Leslie as the only players to post a steal rate of 2%+ and a block rate of 7%+ in a season with at least 15 starts.
Seattle should win this game by a significant margin and I expect the final score to exceed the -12 point spread. I’d take the Storm up to -12.5 for two units and hope for a blowout victory.
EDGE: Seattle Storm -12 (2 Units)