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WNBA Best Bets: Game Preview and Picks for Sunday, May 15

by Jake Wolf
Updated On: May 15, 2022, 1:27 pm ET

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For my best bet on Sunday, May 15, I'm looking at the early afternoon game between the New York Liberty and the Dallas Wings. New York covered the spread in all three matchups with Dallas last season and won both home games outright, and I think the Liberty will get a win again today at the Barclays Center.

Sabrina Ionescu and Arike Ogunbowale finished with 31 and 27 points, respectively, in their most recent games on Friday. Those are the top-two points outputs of the young WNBA season so far, and we should be in for more scoring fireworks in today's game. The Wings and Liberty each finished within the top three in three-point attempts per game last year while also ranking in the top-five for shooting efficiency in clutch minutes.

The Liberty lost an overtime battle with Indiana on Friday despite Ionescu's impressive scoring performance. While Ionescu might not drop 30 again today, the surrounding players should shoot better against Dallas. Natasha Howard made just one of her 15 field-goal attempts in the worst shooting performance of her career among games with more than five shots taken. 

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Tyasha Harris, who ranks fifth in the league with 5.5 assists per game to start the season, is questionable with an ankle injury and the Wings are still without Satou Sabally. Losing Harris would be a blow to a Dallas offense that assisted on the third-lowest proportion of buckets last year and recently cut point guard Moriah Jefferson, leaving Allisha Gray as the only veteran point guard active for the Wings today. Dallas also shot the third-worst field-goal percentage from the restricted area last year and ranks 12th in shot attempts from the restricted area so far this season, an area where Sabally will be missed.

I think this game will come down to the wire so I grabbed the Liberty at the opening line of +1.5 but the spread flipped overnight to New York -2. While the spread has only come into play for one game so far this season, last night's matchup in Minnesota where the Lynx covered against the Sky without winning outright, I'd avoid taking New York at the updated spread and instead focus on the -130 moneyline.

If you'd rather avoid the moneyline and look for a different way to play this matchup, consider taking the over on the points total of 165. The combined score went over the listed points total in six of New York's last eight home games. Dallas should be able to put up some points as well considering the Wings led the league in offensive rebounding last year and the Liberty rank among the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league since the start of last season.

I'd take the Liberty up to the -130 moneyline for one unit and hope for a bounce-back performance from New York at home. 

EDGE: New York Liberty +1.5 (1 Unit)

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Jake Wolf

Jake Wolf is covering basketball for NBC Sports Edge and has worked for FNTSY Sports Network and YES Network. Follow him on Twitter @jakewolf13 for betting content and basketball analysis.