With three games on the WNBA slate for Wednesday, June 29, there’s plenty of value on the board. I looked at the matchup between two top contenders for my best bet of the night, tipping off at 10:00 PM EST. My WNBA picks went 41-29 for a profit of more than 20 units, including a 7-1 stretch over the last week. This will be my 10th three-unit play of the season and I’m currently 8-1 on those picks, and I’m hoping for another win tonight as the Seattle Storm host the Las Vegas Aces.
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces
The biggest news of the week was the split between Tina Charles and the Phoenix Mercury, leading the future Hall-of-Famer to sign with the Seattle Storm. Charles will likely have a significantly reduced role to start her tenure in Seattle but that doesn't mean she won't make a major impact on her new squad.
Seattle averaged the fewest made shots from within five feet of the rim so far this season, an area where Charles can help. The WNBA's reigning scoring champion ranked in the top three for points in the paint last season and remains one of the league's premier post scorers.
The Storm bench posted a -3.1 net rating through 18 games this season, the second-worst mark of any WNBA bench. Charles should help Seattle navigate minutes without Breanna Stewart on the floor, which have too often resulted in extended stretches of ineffective offense.
Tonight’s matchup will also showcase three of the top candidates for MVP as Stewart faces off against A’ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum. Stewart and Plum are the league’s only 20+ PPG scorers this season, while Wilson entered the season as the MVP favorite and has dominated the game on both ends this year.
The Aces entered Monday's game on a two-game losing skid but took down the L.A. Sparks in a comeback win to stay atop the league standings. Las Vegas looked like the clear-cut championship favorites early in Becky Hammon's tenure and the Aces are still listed with the best championship odds at PointsBet Sportsbook, but the Storm could enter the mix after signing Charles.
The starters for Las Vegas averaged more than 31 minutes per game so far this season, which tops the WNBA and exceeds Connecticut's league-high mark from last season. No team is more reliant on the starting unit than the Aces, and starting guard Chelsea Gray will miss tonight's matchup.
The Aces average an additional 10.22 points per 100 possessions with Gray on the floor compared to when she sits, while also holding opponents to score 4.21 fewer points per 100 possessions on the other end. Gray's offensive on-off swing is the largest among any player on the Aces and the only one in double-digits, showing the massive impact the star guard has on the team's offense.
Ezi Magbegor is a key part of why Seattle has a chance to win this matchup, as the center is on pace for a career season after taking a massive leap this year. Magbegor leads the league in blocks per game and formed one of the league's premier assist combinations with Sue Bird.
I expect the Storm to win this matchup outright and my projections show a significant edge on Seattle compared to the current odds. You can find the Storm as anywhere from -1 favorites to +1.5 underdogs, and I see value at each of those numbers. I took Seattle to win at even odds as a three-unit play and my best bet of the night.
EDGE: Seattle Storm ML +100 (3 Units)