The WNBA slate for Sunday, August 28 features two semifinals matchups starting at 4:00 PM EST and I see a few spots for value when playing the prop market. Both series feature teams that faced off four times in the regular season, so there's a solid sample to analyze how different players were used in each matchup. I targeted two points props in each series, plus some extra rebounding props in each Game 1.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm
I discussed Jewell Loyd's clutch performance in my series preview article and I expect more big moments down the stretch from Loyd in this series. Seattle's shooting guard dropped a career-high 38 points against the Aces earlier this month and averaged more than 20 points per game in matchups with Las Vegas during the regular season.
Loyd posted a 24.6% usage rate in 824 minutes playing with Gabby Williams this season but that increased to more than 30% in 265 minutes without Williams on the court according to PBP Stats. With Williams out for Game 1 due to a concussion, Loyd should get plenty of shots up and I wouldn't be surprised to see another 20-point game.
Loyd's points prop is set at 18.5 on FanDuel and I see plenty of value in taking her to go over 17.5 on BetRivers.
EDGE: Jewell Loyd Over 17.5 Points -114 (BetRivers)
Jackie Young only averaged 13.1 points per 36 minutes in four games against the Storm this season. Young posted a usage rate of just 13.2% in matchups with Seattle, which ranked fifth among Aces starters and significantly below her full-season usage of 19%.
The Most Improved Player candidate finished Round 1 as the fourth option in Las Vegas's starting lineup and I expect Chelsea Gray to maintain her increased usage in this series.
That doesn't leave many opportunities for Young, who failed to exceed 15 points in any of her last three games against the Storm. I'm betting on Young to go under 16.5 points for Game 1 with a line of -114 at FanDuel.
Jackie Young Under 16.5 Points -114 (FanDuel)
While I see some value on Breanna Stewart to go over 21.5 points, I'd rather target her rebounding prop listed at -125 to exceed 8.5 boards on FanDuel. Stewart's rebounding line is set at 9.5 on PrizePicks and FanDuel offers a better price on this over than BetRivers.
Stewie grabbed at least nine boards in each of her last five games and averaged 11.2 rebounds per game in that span. The Aces ranked dead last in offensive rebounding rate this season and Stewart was one of three qualified players to grab more than 25% of available defensive rebounds while on the court this year.
With an average of 10 rebounds per game against Las Vegas this season, I'm confident that Stewie can grab at least nine to start off the semifinals.
EDGE: Breanna Stewart Over 8.5 Rebounds -125 (FanDuel)
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun
Candace Parker averaged 22 points per 36 minutes against the Sun this season and CP3 scored well in matchups with Connecticut since joining the Sky. Parker dropped 22 points in Game 1 against the Sun last postseason and averaged more than 15 points per game in that series.
Connecticut ranked just 10th in defensive efficiency against post-ups this season and Parker ranked in the top-10 for post-up efficiency among players averaging at least two post-ups per game according to Synergy.
The Sky will likely use Parker as a post hub and run the offense through her in this matchup since that worked well in recent matchups between the teams. That should result in a high scoring output and an easy cash for over bettors who target Parker's points prop.
EDGE: Candace Parker Over 14.5 Points -114 (FanDuel)
This could be a good matchup for Brionna Jones as the Sky allowed the most opponent looks at the rim this season by more than 100 attempts. Jones led the league in total shots made from the restricted area this year and averaged 23.6 points per 36 minutes against Chicago this season.
The Sky also gave up the second-most opponent points in the paint and second chance points per game this season. Jones ranked in the top-five among all WNBA players in both categories so I expect a strong performance from the likely Sixth Player of the Year. I'm targeting Jones to exceed 14.5 points against the Sky.
EDGE: Brionna Jones Over 14.5 Points -102
My favorite plays are on the points markets for this slate of matchups, but I do have leans on two rebounding props for Game 1. Parker led the league in defensive rebounding rate this season and grabbed at least 10 boards in four of her last five games. With a rebounding line of 8.5, the over is worth a bet if you're willing to stomach the -140 juice.
EDGE: Candace Parker Over 8.5 Rebounds (FanDuel)
On the other side, I like the under on Alyssa Thomas's rebounding prop of 8.5. Thomas only averaged six boards per game in four matchups with the Sky this season despite averaging a team-high 36 minutes per game in those contests. I'd also consider taking the under for Thomas's assists prop, which is listed at -113 to go under 6.5.
EDGE: Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Rebounds -113 (FanDuel)