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FanDuel Strategy

FanDuel Fit: 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities

by Josh Culp
Updated On: July 21, 2021, 4:28 pm ET

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The TOUR heads back to Blaine, Minnesota, for a third running of the 3M Open. 

The first edition was played on the Fourth of July weekend in 2019 while last year was played in late July without any spectators. 

With just two years of data, we don't want to lean too heavily on course history. Someone like Matthew Wolff might deserve a slight boost from his performances here in two years but that is more of an outlier than something truly predictive. 

Instead, we can look at some historical stats to see who might enjoy the course, on paper. We'll do this by filtering the last two years of data and see what golfers like playing on long courses and then find out who overperforms when playing on courses with bentgrass greens. 

 

Long Course Performance

TPC Twin Cities has four par 4s over 460 yards and all three of the par 5s play over 575 yards. Even three of the par 3s play over 200 yards. 

That puts a premium on mid-iron and long-iron performance. 

Let's see who has gained the most strokes per round on long courses, over the last two years: 

Dustin Johnson
Louis Oosthuizen
Tony Finau
Patrick Reed
Robert MacIntyre
Cameron Tringale
Charl Schwartzel
Lanto Griffin
Sergio Garcia
Keegan Bradley
Stewart Cink
Joel Dahmen
Brendon Todd
Brandt Snedeker
Matthew Wolff
 

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list: 

Michael Gellerman
Satoshi Kodaira
Peter Malnati
Louis Oosthuizen
Michael Gligic
Charl Schwartzel
Luke Donald
Dustin Johnson
Scott Piercy
Brandt Snedeker
Keegan Bradley
Nick Watney
Joel Dahmen
Tony Finau
Joseph Bramlett

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, Tony Finau, Charl Schwartzel, Keegan Bradley, Joel Dahmen, and Brandt Snedeker.

Most of these names get it done on beefy layouts with elite ball-striking but Sneds does it through elite wedge play and steady short-game skills. 

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Bentgrass Greens

Playing on cool-season grasses this week, some golfers are more comfortable than others when it comes to handling the turf. 

"I’m Pacific Northwest, so similar grass, similar climate in a way. There’s things that you like about areas and it has more to do with the grass and the way the golf course is played, some of that stuff more so than maybe the area in general." -Ryan Moore

"I’ve always liked bentgrass greens. Growing up in Arizona, I grew up on kind of slow Bermuda, kind of grainy Bermuda, and so it was a treat to get to play bent." -Michael Thompson

"I live in Ohio so the grass is very similar to what we have here." Jason Day

Here are the top performers per round, when playing courses with bentgrass greens, over the last two years: 

Patrick Reed
Dustin Johnson
Tony Finau
Louis Oosthuizen
Robert MacIntyre
Erik van Rooyen
Lanto Griffin
Lucas Herbert
Mito Pereira
Cameron Tringale
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Davis
Ryan Moore
Bubba Watson
Rickie Fowler

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list: 

Kevin Tway
Grayson Murray
Brandon Hagy
Ben Taylor
Hank Lebioda
Jonathan Byrd
Robby Shelton
Adam Schenk
Beau Hossler
Zack Sucher
Tom Lewis
MJ Daffue
Ryan Moore
Chez Reavie
Ted Potter, Jr.

Overlap List: the only name that shows up on both lists is Ryan Moore

There are a lot of journeymen who increase their performance greatly on bentgrass greens while it's tougher for the stars to show up on both lists because their games usually translate to all grass types and conditions. That's why it's important to use both lists when researching. 

FanDuel Focus 

Dustin Johnson ($12,200): Looking for an anchor to start your FanDuel roster builds? DJ is trending back into form, can demolish the par 5s, and he may be slightly overlooked based on last year's performance at TPC Twin Cities (mid-tourney WD after a poor opening round). Johnson has carded fewer bogeys than the field average in six of his last seven starts, a nice bounceback after swallowing more bogeys than the field in three straight back in the spring. 

Charl Schwartzel ($9,300): The South African posted four sub-69 rounds at TPC Twin Cities last year to secure a T3 finish. More recently, he's gained at least four strokes tee-to-green in four of his last six starts. He had accomplished that feat in just two of his previous 13 measured events before that. The game is trending back up and he may feel inspired after seeing so many of his countrymen on the leaderboard at Royal St. George's last week while he was settling for a top 30 at the Barbasol. 

 

Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis. 

Josh Culp

Josh Culp joined NBC Sports Edge in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.