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LeBron James O/U 48.5 PRA VS. SUNS
In the play-in tournament versus the Warriors, I got this line at 42.5 PRA and he barely cashed at 43. Since then, LeBron James has recorded 35, 36, 36, 43 and 36 PRA, hitting the Under in five straight games.
Now that Anthony Davis is out, the load falls on LeBron's shoulders and he is used to that. However, he has only gone Over 48.5 PRA in 8-of-51 (15.7%) games this season and zero times in the last 11, per props.cash.
I used the NBC simulator and adjusted LeBron's minutes to 40 as a precautionary for tonight. At 40 minutes, the model projects 26.1 points, 8.9 assists and 8.2 rebounds for 43.2 PRA, hitting the Under.
On the season, he averages 39.2 PRA against the Suns, well under his projection and prop total for Game 6.
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LeBron will have to score at least 30 points tonight to come close to this number and around 40 minutes. When he plays 40 or more minutes, LeBron averages 29.3 points, 10.8 assists and 8.5 rebounds for 48.6 PRA. That has only happened four times this season and none in the postseason yet.
The King has played 38 or 39 minutes in Games 2-4. He averaged 23.0 points, 8.0 assists and 7.3 rebounds for 38.3 PRA. He has only hit this Over once in six games against the Suns and he recorded 49 PRA in that effort.
Despite LeBron never losing a first-round series and his ability in Game 6 to take over, I do not see the help around him being able to assist him with 50 PRA unless he scores 35-plus points himself.
Even if the Lakers' season ends here or continues, I expect this to be a sweat and LeBron to pull out his best heroics.
I would play this at 47.5 for 0.5u or pivot to his Under 17.5 Rebounds and Assists for one unit.
Pick: LeBron James Under 48.5 PRA (1u)
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