Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let's go.
Tom Brady OVER 295.5 Passing Yards (-115)
This game projects to be one of the most exciting of the year based on its 56-point total and that bodes well for the passing and receiving props on both teams. For Brady, getting into a shootout has been the key to unlocking his upside as far as counting stats are concerned. Brady has played in 12 games with a final total of at least 50 points. He has posted an average of 323 yards per game in those contests. He has topped this prop in two-thirds of those games.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 30.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
It's going to be impossible to tell what the Kansas City backfield split is going to look like until kickoff but there are reasons to believe CEH could take on a larger role. Last week, CEH opened the game as the clear starter. He out-carried Darrel Williams 5-2 through two quarters and played on 23 snaps to Williams' nine. It's quite possible that with a lead in hand entering the second half, Andy Reid chose to let off the gas on his first-round rookie who was coming off a month-long hip injury. If that's the case this week, CEH's props will all come in far underpriced.
Leonard Fournette First Running Back to Reach 10+ Yards (+150)
The Bucs simply love getting Fournette going on their first drive. Over the past four weeks, they have given him every single carry on their opening drives and he has topped 10 yards in three of those four games. They have also run at a slightly higher rate (3.2 percent) on their first drives than their overall regular season run rate. The Bucs look likely to get the ball first (they're -180 to receive the kickoff) making Fournette a strong play to get the first crack at ten yards.
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Cameron Brate UNDER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Brate has been out-playing his volume in recent weeks and we should expect that to revert sooner rather than later. In the playoffs, Brate has run 51 routes which are nine fewer than Rob Gronkowski and fifth on the team. He has earned 16 targets on that minimal role and converted those targets into 149 yards. That's 9.3 yards per target. His career average for yards per target is 7.5. Not only is he running hot on drawing more targets than his limited role would suggest but he's also playing better than his seven years of receiving data would suggest. Expect those numbers to regress and him to fall under this prop on Sunday.
Antonio Brown OVER 3.5 Receptions (-120)
Recent reports have suggested that Brown will be able to play in the Super Bowl and he has had three weeks to get healthy. Assuming that he is at some approximation of full health, Brown should cruise past this prop. He has topped 3.5 receptions in six of nine games that he's been able to finish with the Buccaneers. His average is 5.2 catches per game. This prop is far too low given what Brown was able to do in his limited regular season reps.
Last Week: 2-3, -1.3 units
Season: 26-17, +9.7 units