Shane Lowry
Andrew Davis Tucker-Augusta Chronicle/USA TODAY Sports
Odds and Ends

Wyndham: Hard to pass up on course-fit Lowry

Updated On: August 5, 2022, 3:37 pm ET

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The PGA Tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina, for the Wyndham Championship. This week marks the last tournament before the FedEx Cup Playoffs. With the top 125 golfers qualifying for next week's St. Jude Invitational, golfers like Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler know how important it is to perform well. While primarily targeting guys on the cusp of qualification seems like a good idea, it isn't necessarily one you should unload your bankroll on. I am all for backing these golfers if they fit your model or projections. This tournament treats those with a rich course history well. I used a mixture of current form and course history for my placement bets. Here are the golfers I am betting on in the position market; odds can be found on PointsBet Sportsbook:

Shane Lowry to Finish Top 20 +125

Last week I was left feeling a bit let down from my “perfect course fit,” Max Homa. He found a way to grind out a made cut but narrowly finished outside the top 20. Nonetheless, I will continue to trust my process. Lowry is my ideal course fit this week despite not having a top 20 finish here since 2017. Ideally, you want a guy who is accurate off the tee, great with his irons and avoids bogeys. All of which Lowry does well. His ranking in my key metrics is phenomenal:

  • Good Drives: 1st
  • SG: Approach: 3rd
  • Scrambling: 8th
  • Bogey Avoidance: 1st
  • Par-5 Scoring: 1st
  • GIRs Gained: 2nd

I haven't entirely decided if I'll be betting Lowry in the outright market this week. However, I have no problems placing a healthy wager on him to finish inside the top 20 this week.

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Webb Simpson to Finish Top 20 (-115)

Simpson is the only golfer in this field where I have a strong enough conviction to ignore their recent form and bet on this week. Simpson enters the week having lost strokes in three straight events. He hasn't been driving the ball well, nor has he been very good with his putter. I'm ignoring that because of what's at stake and his rich history at this course. Currently sitting 126th, it's possible that a poor performance resulting in a missed cut could mean he will be outside of the 125 who compete in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Simpson's prowess at the course is unbelievable. In the past five years, he's finished no worse than T7. He's easily gained the most strokes out of anyone in the field here in the past five years. At +60.4, it's nearly double the next closest guy in Billy Horschel. Before his last two trips here, he was playing good golf. That worries me a bit, but with the extra added motivation, I am expecting him to get it done.

Sungjae Im to Finish Top 10 (+175)

Of the golfers in the field, Im and Will Zalatoris have the most top 10 finishes this season. Im is T8 with seven on the season. One is a win and the other a solo second. Im finished T24 here last year, but he has two top 10 finishes before that. It makes sense for Im not to finish top 20 here last year after losing -2.4 strokes putting. Right now, we are getting an Im in good form, and we should continue to bet him as so.

Im is ninth in my primary model. Since eight par 4s here are between 400-450 yards, I added par 4 scoring from 400-450; Im is the top golfer in that metric. He's about average in driving accuracy, but he's a great ball striker, and when his putter is hot, he's hard to beat.

A repeat performance of two weeks ago where he finished solo 2nd is very probably. At the 3M Open, he was practically untouchable on Thursday. He couldn't hold onto that momentum throughout the weekend. He should still be happy with his play. His 2nd place finish came at a great time. It was after an 81st at The Open and back-to-back missed cuts. At the 3M Open, he was brilliant off the tee, and he was back to rolling the rock. Playing top 20 is safer, but the value isn't there since you must pay the vig.

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